祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250702：过剩矛盾未解，价格回落 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | 2025/7/2 | 指标 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,200.00 | 0.00% | 工业硅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 7,765.00 | -3.66% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 435.00 | 295.00 | 元/千克 | 33.50 | 0.00% | N型多晶硅料 | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 32,700.00 | -2.49% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 800.00 | 835.00 | 基差 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 8,200.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 8,200.00 | 0.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space may be limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1]. Summaries by Related Information Industry Data - In the first quarter of 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a 1% year - on - year increase and a 6% quarter - on - quarter increase, mainly due to the growth of ferrosilicon - manganese production and inventory accumulation. The demand mainly came from China, while the global supply was stable at 4.6 million tons [1]. - Since 2025, India has issued multiple GW - level photovoltaic project tenders, with a photovoltaic project scale of about 7.1GW and a supporting energy storage system of about 2.2GW/8.8GWh, with an average energy storage duration of 4 hours [1]. Price Information Industrial Silicon - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,360 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Polysilicon - N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 34,010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Others - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained unchanged, while organic silicon prices (DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil) decreased [1]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On the supply side, some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion, and those in the southwest were hesitant to resume production despite approaching the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, organic silicon enterprises had strong intentions to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - On the supply side, although some silicon material factories may have new capacity, the overall production is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [1]. Forecast and Strategy Industrial Silicon - The silicon market is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short - term, and the downward space may be limited. It is necessary to continue to monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. It is necessary to continue to monitor the changes on the supply side [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, with limited downward space [1] - The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.34% to 7,370 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, resulting in a decrease in overall production [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1] Polysilicon Market - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material was flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 1.85% to 34,320 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacity might be put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output but still within 100,000 tons [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1] Other Market Information - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, passenger car production and sales were 2.313 million and 2.352 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 5.8%, and year - on - year increases of 12.8% and 13.3%. From January to May, production and sales were 11.08 million and 10.996 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.1% and 12.6% [1] - **Organic Silicon Market**: The domestic organic silicon DMC market's trading center continued to decline, and it was expected to decline slightly further. The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil changed, with DMC down 1.83% to 10,750 yuan/ton and 107 glue down 0.41% to 12,050 yuan/ton [1] - **New Energy Industry**: From January to May, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% respectively. The power generation of wind and solar energy in large - scale industries increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250616：低位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/6/16 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,100.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 7,345.00 | -1.48% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 755.00 | 110.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 34.50 | -1.43% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 33,695.00 | 0.33% | | 基差 | 元/吨 | 805.00 | -610.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,100.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8,150.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 7,950.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and it is difficult to find the bottom of silicon prices. However, the current position is at an absolute low. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, considering the weak fundamentals and the difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem in the short - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.56% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 1.99% to 7,135 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north have cut production due to cost inversion. Although the southwest production area is approaching the wet - season, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate has decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price is falling. The start - up rate of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has a low willingness to stock up at low prices [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.47% to 34,540 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will be maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rebounds and continuously monitor the supply - side changes [1]. Other Information - **Organic Silicon**: Due to the significant decline in the cost of 421 silicon, the profit of domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises has started to recover, with the average industry profit reaching about 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [1]. - For industrial silicon, the overall production has declined with a north - south difference in production trends, and demand from downstream industries is weak. For polysilicon, the supply side maintains a production cut state, and the demand side is also soft [1]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: On June 3, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 1.20%; the futures main contract closing price was 7,160 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions all showed a downward trend, with the largest decline of 1.82% for non - oxygenated 553 (Tianjin Port) [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: In May 2025, industrial silicon production was 307,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. As of May 29, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals and Demand**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, the willingness to resume production was insufficient. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that the short - term trend will remain weak, and it is recommended to take short positions on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On June 3, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price was 35,600 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacities might be put into operation, with the expected output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price declines of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Considering the strong uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not have an upward trend in the short term. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer, Cell, and Component Prices**: The prices of various types of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained unchanged on June 3, 2025 [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: On June 3, 2025, the price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; the price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [1].