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金融工程日报:沪指午后加速下探,周期股大面积杀跌-20250731
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-31 14:54
- Model Name: ETF Premium and Discount Rate Model; Model Construction Idea: The model calculates the premium and discount rates of ETFs to reflect investor sentiment; Model Construction Process: The premium and discount rates are calculated using the formula: $ \text{Discount Rate} = \frac{\text{Total Transaction Amount of Block Trade}}{\text{Total Market Value of Shares Traded on the Day}} - 1 $ [23][26][27] - Model Name: Margin Trading Balance Model; Model Construction Idea: The model measures the balance of margin trading to reflect market activity; Model Construction Process: The balance of margin trading is calculated by summing the financing balance and the securities lending balance. The proportion of margin trading balance to the market's total circulating market value and the proportion of margin trading transactions to the market's total transaction amount are also calculated [19][22][24] - Model Name: Stock Index Futures Basis Model; Model Construction Idea: The model calculates the annualized basis rate of stock index futures to reflect market expectations; Model Construction Process: The annualized basis rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Annualized Basis Rate} = \frac{\text{Basis}}{\text{Index Price}} \times \left( \frac{250}{\text{Remaining Trading Days of the Contract}} \right) $ [28][29][31] - Factor Name: Sealing Rate; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the proportion of stocks that hit the highest price and closed at the highest price; Factor Construction Process: The sealing rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Sealing Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Highest Price and Closed at Highest Price}}{\text{Number of Stocks with Highest Price}} $ [16] - Factor Name: Consecutive Sealing Rate; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the proportion of stocks that closed at the highest price for two consecutive days; Factor Construction Process: The consecutive sealing rate is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Consecutive Sealing Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks Closed at Highest Price for Two Consecutive Days}}{\text{Number of Stocks Closed at Highest Price Yesterday}} $ [16] Model Backtest Results - ETF Premium and Discount Rate Model, Premium Rate: 1.77% (New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF), Discount Rate: 0.95% (CSI 2000 ETF) [23][25] - Margin Trading Balance Model, Margin Trading Balance: 19847 billion yuan, Financing Balance: 19706 billion yuan, Securities Lending Balance: 142 billion yuan, Margin Trading Balance to Circulating Market Value Ratio: 2.3%, Margin Trading Transactions to Market Transaction Amount Ratio: 10.4% [19][21][22] - Stock Index Futures Basis Model, Annualized Basis Rate: 0.25% (SSE 50), -3.17% (CSI 300), -11.41% (CSI 500), -12.84% (CSI 1000) [28][29][31] Factor Backtest Results - Sealing Rate, 59% [16] - Consecutive Sealing Rate, 25% [16]