投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 注:因收盎时间不一致,铂、肥库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月29日，铂、纽价格整体冲高，尾盘稍有回落:PT2606合约收跌1.94%至714.1元/克，PD2606合约收跌2.99%至526.6元/克。宏观 层面,国际秩序不确定性仍旧高企,尤其是美国对伊朗极限施压且伊朗表态亦较为强硬,使得伊朗地缘紧张局势持续升温,避险需求 和去美元化演潮加速驱动贵金属价格大幅走强，亦带动针、把价格偏强运行。基本面方面，暂未有较大变化，海外铂把现货相对紧缺 或可继续支撑价格维持高位;但美国决定暂缓对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解铂、把的关税风险,未来需关注纽约库存是否流出,若 小结 确认,可能会对其上行空间构成压制。综上,预计铂、纽价格短期或高位运行,但波动幅度仍会较大。中长期来看,铂把供需前景存 在差异，铂供需缺口仍存、锂则趋于供应宽松，故策略上建议以单边逢低配置铂为主，或继续关注【多知空肥】套利策略。（仅供参 考) 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也未针对个别投资者持殊的投 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon, palm oil [1] - Neutral: Iron ore, silicon iron, glass, etc. [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, with significant price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the opportunities for low - level long positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential after adjustment. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Commodity Markets Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The industry has limited industrial drivers, with aluminum prices fluctuating widely at high levels. The production and inventory of domestic alumina continue to increase, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although there is a short - term price rebound, the upward drive is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: The short - term macro - positive factors have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. However, the zinc price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to low - level long opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has been oscillating after a decline with increasing positions. If the macro - situation improves or supply - side disturbances increase, there will be a demand for position reduction and repair. Short - term operations are recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will remain in surplus [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The black sector has declined due to various factors, but coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization after the announcement of the steel export licensing system. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have shown signs of stabilization after the "bad news is out". Attention should be paid to the spot situation and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is bearish. The USDA report has no highlights, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new - crop cotton has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bullish. The成交 of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].