1月6日晚，港股"国货高端美妆第一股"毛戈平（01318.HK）一则减持公告激起千层浪。 图源：毛戈平官方公告 包括创始人毛戈平、其配偶汪立群、两位姐姐等在内的6名控股股东及执行董事，宣布计划在未来6个月内，通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过1720万股公 司股份。按公告当日收盘价82港元计算，此番套现金额高达14.1亿港元。 引人注目的是，公告给出的减持理由相当直白和罕见：所得款项将用于"美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等"。 然而，资本市场对此"利空"的反应却出人意料。1月7日，毛戈平股价开盘后不跌反涨，盘中一度拉升超过8%，最终收报87.95港元，单日涨幅 锁定在7.26%，公司市值回升至431.12亿港元。 一边是核心家族成员集体宣布上市以来最大规模减持，一边是股价强势上扬。这看似矛盾的市场表象背后，实则交织着对公司当下价值与未来隐忧的复杂 计算。 01 一次典型的家族财富变现 这些股东及其控制主体计划在1月6日起的6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式，合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。 按照截至2025年6月30日的持股比例计算，上述毛戈平及其亲属5人持股比例为66.93%。再加上由毛戈平实际控 ...

深度拆解：透明化披露+克制性减持+稀缺性份额 公告显示，毛戈平及其一致行动人计划通过大宗交易方式减持不超过1720万股H股，约占总股本的 3.51%。 透明化披露：毛戈平在港股市场罕见地主动提前披露减持计划，充分保障投资者知情权，助力市场理性 决策，彰显对市场与投资者的尊重。减持用途明确指向美妆产业链投资及个人财务改善，公开透明的沟 通方式有效消解了市场对创始人"离场"的疑虑，本质是为公司长远扩张蓄力。 昨日，港股"美妆第一股"毛戈平(01318.HK)发布大股东减持公告引发市场关注。与常规减持引发的股价 重挫不同，毛戈平股价走出"反向行情"，机构投资者依旧表现踊跃。此次减持凸显透明、克制、稀缺三 大核心特质，彰显公司发展底气。 盘面扫描：股价上演强势"V"型反转 1月6日，毛戈平(01318.HK)并未受减持公告拖累。早盘低开0.3%后即获大量买盘涌入，股价迅速拉升， 盘中一度上涨8.29%。 业内人士分析："减持披露后首个交易日不跌反涨，是港股典型'利空出尽'信号。体现市场以真金白银 认可公司基本面及此次减持性质。" 市场传闻：机构"哄抢"稀缺筹码，现有股东或加仓 优质标的减持常被视为"大户调仓"良机。毛 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon, palm oil [1] - Neutral: Iron ore, silicon iron, glass, etc. [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The market sentiment has been volatile recently, with significant price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the opportunities for low - level long positions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential after adjustment. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and win - rates [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Commodity Markets Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: The industry has limited industrial drivers, with aluminum prices fluctuating widely at high levels. The production and inventory of domestic alumina continue to increase, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although there is a short - term price rebound, the upward drive is limited [1]. - **Zinc**: The short - term macro - positive factors have been digested, the fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. However, the zinc price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to low - level long opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has been oscillating after a decline with increasing positions. If the macro - situation improves or supply - side disturbances increase, there will be a demand for position reduction and repair. Short - term operations are recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel will remain in surplus [1]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The black sector has declined due to various factors, but coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization after the announcement of the steel export licensing system. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have shown signs of stabilization after the "bad news is out". Attention should be paid to the spot situation and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It is bearish. The USDA report has no highlights, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported soybean auctions on supply [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new - crop cotton has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bullish. The成交 of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1].

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 咱们今天就来聊聊，这25个基点的降息到底能不能救美国经济，中国又为啥没跟着凑热闹。 降息救市？美股先涨后忧的怪现象 美联储宣布降息后，美股居然涨了。 道琼斯指数开盘就往上冲，好像这23.6万失业人口压根不是事儿。 12月的一天，美联储突然宣布降息25个基点，还说每个月要多买400亿美元国债。 同一天美国公布的失业数据吓了市场一跳，申请失业金的人数飙到23.6万，这数字是2020年疫情以来最 高的。 两件事撞在一起，不少人开始嘀咕，美国经济是不是真要不行了？ 美联储这波操作有点像给高烧病人吃退烧药，先把体温降下来再说。 可经济这东西比感冒复杂多了，光靠降息未必能治本。 后来才想明白，这可能是"利空出尽"的心理在作祟坏消息都摆到台面上了，反而有人觉得最糟的时候过 去了。 黄金价格倒是很诚实，直接冲破4300美元/盎司。 要知道黄金这东西最讨厌通胀，也最怕经济不稳定，现在它涨这么凶，说明市场对美元信心有点动摇。 还有个叫VIX的恐慌指数，跌到14左右，这区间看着挺平静，其实历史上几次大跌前都这德性，2021年 科技股崩盘、2023年8月美股回调前都这数。 美国这套"降息救市"的剧本，咱 ...

12月2日，港股集体高开，恒生指数涨0.6%报26188.55点，恒生科技指数涨0.76%报5687.49点，国企指 数涨0.56%报9224.1点，红筹指数跌0.02%报4244.75点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.36%，腾讯控股涨0.97%，小米集团涨0.6%，网易涨 1.8%，美团跌0.05%，快手涨3.15%，哔哩哔哩涨0.1%；保险股多数高开，友邦保险涨超1%；汽车股分 化，蔚来跌超6%，赛力斯涨超1%。 企业新闻 农业银行(01288.HK)：完成发行200亿元总损失吸收能力非资本债券。 中国生物制药(01177.HK)：自主研发的国家1类创新药TRD208在中国开展的I期临床试验已顺利完成首 例患者入组。 白云山(00874)：广州医药拟开展应收账款资产证券化业务。 维立志博-B(09887.HK)：LBL-047取得NMPA的IND批准。 比亚迪股份(01211.HK)：前11月新能源汽车产量约411.76万辆，同比增长7.29%；销量约418.2万辆，同 比增长11.3%。 吉利汽车(00175.HK)：前11个月的汽车总销量为278.78万辆，同比增长42%。11月的汽车 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "shockingly strong" for cotton [1] Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton has rebounded slightly, possibly forming a short - term bottom at 63 - 64 cents, but further upward movement requires more drivers. Domestic cotton futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, but the upside space is currently limited [1][18] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open at 63.95, high at 64.95, low at 63.89, close at 64.73, up 0.80 with a 1.25% increase, volume of 73,071 lots (down 59,989 lots), and open interest of 176,097 lots (up 978 lots) [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open at 13,480, high at 13,745, low at 13,465, close at 13,725, up 265 with a 1.97% increase, volume of 1,091,787 lots (up 176,265 lots), and open interest of 545,268 lots (down 1,643 lots) [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open at 19,775, high at 20,145, low at 19,745, close at 20,090, up 365 with a 1.85% increase, volume of 78,536 lots (down 18,127 lots), and open interest of 7,907 lots (down 13,041 lots) [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rebounded this week. With the resumption of data and report releases by the US Department of Agriculture, the market seems to have priced in the negative news. The weakening US dollar and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December also support ICE cotton [4] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: As of the week ending October 16, 2025/26 US Upland Cotton weekly contracts were 39,800 tons, a 11% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. 2026/27 US Upland Cotton weekly contracts were 6,100 tons. 2025/26 US Upland Cotton weekly shipments were 36,200 tons, a 15% week - on - week increase and a 16% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US Upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.1064 million tons, accounting for 42% of the annual forecasted total exports (2.66 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 355,800 tons, accounting for 32% of the total annual contracts [5] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: The Indian Ministry of Agriculture lowered the 2024/25 cotton production. The first forecast for the 2025/26 cotton production is 29.2 million bales (about 497,000 tons), lower than the USDA's and the Indian Cotton Association's estimates. India aims to reach $100 billion in textile exports by 2030, but its textile exports to the US are under pressure due to high tariffs [7] - Brazil: The market expects a significant cotton export volume in November. About 80% of the 2025 new cotton has been processed, and about 75% of the output has completed the first - round sales. The pre - sale progress of the expected 2026 output is about 36%. The estimated shipment volume in the first three weeks of November has reached about 323,000 tons, and the full - month shipment is expected to reach about 400,000 tons [7] - Pakistan: The local observation agency has slightly raised the cotton production forecast, with the final output expected to be between 6.75 - 7.25 million bales. Cotton import transactions remain at a very low level [8] - Bangladesh: Cotton imports in October were relatively low. Spinning enterprises still purchase new cotton on an as - needed basis. Some spinning mills have locked in Brazilian cotton sources and signed fixed - price orders for the whole of next year. The demand for certified cotton is gradually increasing, but many enterprises face problems such as delayed letter - of - credit issuance and limited financing channels [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week ending November 28, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 67%, Vietnam's was 61.5%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices have risen, but trading is relatively light. As of the week of November 21, domestic cotton futures and spot prices increased, with spot price increases lagging behind futures. Spinning mills' purchasing willingness is not strong. After the rise of Zhengzhou cotton, the advantage of fixed - price spot prices has emerged, and supply has gradually increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 28, there were 2,408 registered warehouse receipts and 1,884 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,292 receipts, equivalent to 180,264 tons [12] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market has general trading, with a weak atmosphere. The walking situation is differentiated, with yarns of 40 counts and above selling well. The flower - yarn price spread has continued to narrow, and the operating pressure of spinning mills has increased. The full - cotton grey fabric market also shows differentiation, with clothing grey fabric trading remaining weak and家纺 orders being smooth. Weaving mills' inventory pressure has increased, and their startup rate is at a low level [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts, including those related to Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinning mills' cotton inventory, weaving enterprises' yarn inventory, etc. [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, ICE cotton is likely to form a phased bottom at 63 - 64 cents, but further upward movement needs more drivers. Domestic cotton futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, but the upside space is currently limited due to factors such as new cotton listing and ginning mills' hedging intentions [18]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfeng Securities has been placed under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure and illegal financing, which may be linked to historical financial issues with its former major shareholder, Wuhan Dandai Technology Industry Group [1][2] Group 1: Investigation and Historical Issues - The investigation is related to the financial occupation issues disclosed in Tianfeng Securities' 2022 annual report concerning its former major shareholder, Wuhan Dandai Technology [1] - Wuhan Dandai and its affiliates reportedly occupied funds through third-party entities, with a total repayment of 1.903 billion yuan in principal and 106 million yuan in interest from 2020 to 2022 [1] - Following the discovery of these issues, Tianfeng Securities implemented corrective measures to enhance management of related party transactions and fund payments [1] Group 2: Corporate Changes and Financial Performance - The acquisition of Tianfeng Securities by Hongtai Group marked its transition to state control, with Hongtai Group being controlled by the Hubei Provincial Finance Department [3] - After the acquisition, Tianfeng Securities completed a private placement of up to 4 billion yuan to strengthen its capital base and enhance business quality [3] - In the first nine months of the year, Tianfeng Securities reported a revenue of 2.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.53%, and a net profit of 153 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4]

近日，天风证券发布公告称，公司已收到中国证监会的立案告知书，市场认为监管立案与2022年年度报 告中披露的原民营大股东资金占用事项有所关联，2022年底该占用资金及利息全部归还。立案标志着困 扰天风证券多年的历史包袱终于要划上句号。在湖北宏泰集团控股后，天风证券基本面持续向好，立案 被市场解读为"利空出尽"的关键节点。 立案原因猜想：当代集团资金占用 天风证券2022年年度报告中披露，公司原直接和间接持股合计5%以上股份的股东武汉当代科技产业集 团股份有限公司通过第三方主体占用公司资金，截至2022年12月31日，占用资金及利息已全部归还。彼 时市场即普遍预期，立案只是时间问题。如今立案告知书落地，印证了当时猜想。 关键信号：与"当代系"旧时代彻底切割 市场分析，此次立案标志着天风证券与当代集团的历史遗留问题彻底切割。 2023年湖北国资宏泰集团正式控股天风证券，目前持有公司28.33%股权。原大股东当代集团因债务危 机已退出天风证券股东行列，但历史问题始终是悬在天风证券头上的"悬顶之剑"。 市场人士分析，对于此次立案告知，机构投资者普遍持"靴子落地"的积极解读，"监管立案虽然会带来 短期声誉影响，但明确的责 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of Wang Guoan, the founder of Hanhou, from facing significant debt and business challenges to revitalizing his company and personal brand through resilience and strategic actions [4][11][19]. Group 1: Personal Resilience and Recovery - Wang Guoan has transformed his physical and mental state, engaging in activities like basketball to maintain energy and enthusiasm, which he attributes to his recovery from financial difficulties [6][18]. - He emphasizes the importance of facing challenges head-on, stating that acknowledging and addressing negative situations can lead to a sense of certainty and the potential for improvement [14][15]. - Wang views his past failures as valuable experiences that have strengthened his resolve and provided new opportunities for growth [9][10]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Brand Building - The company has maintained profitability despite past challenges, with Wang focusing on rebuilding trust within his team and re-establishing a strong company culture [10][30]. - Wang has initiated a strategy to revitalize Hanhou by introducing high-end products, aiming to enhance the brand's market position and consumer perception [33][36]. - The concept of creating a personal brand (IP) has been pivotal for Wang, allowing him to connect with a new audience and rebuild trust, which is essential for the company's future success [21][25][26]. Group 3: Team Dynamics and Leadership - There is a noted lack of trust within the Hanhou team, stemming from past failures, which Wang acknowledges as a significant challenge to overcome [30][31]. - Wang's leadership approach involves engaging the team in a shared vision and encouraging them to embrace risk and innovation, contrasting with their current cautious mindset [32][39]. - The company is exploring new leadership models, such as hiring project CEOs based on their past successes, to foster a culture of accountability and shared goals [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on several commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil. It analyzes the driving factors and market conditions for each variety [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Market expects China to resume purchasing US soybeans, and there is uncertainty in Brazilian production area weather, driving up US soybean futures prices. China's soybean arrivals are expected to decrease monthly, alleviating long - term supply pressure. However, current soybean meal inventory is high, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with demand not expected to increase significantly. The market is waiting for the USDA report and China's actual purchase of US soybeans to determine the price breakthrough direction, leading to increased short - term price volatility at high levels [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating" [7]. - **Core Logic**: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil end - of - month inventory increased by 4.44% month - on - month to 2.4645 million tons, slightly higher than expected, indicating supply pressure. But exports increased by 18.58% month - on - month to 1.6929 million tons, exceeding expectations, which alleviated market pessimism. However, high - frequency data showed that exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.3% month - on - month, casting a shadow on future demand. Overall, the fundamental situation of palm oil has not changed, and short - term rebound space is limited [7]. Soybean Oil 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term, medium - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm 2601 - **Viewpoints**: Short - term is "weak", medium - term is "oscillating", intraday and reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].