证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 厦门象屿(600057) 投资评级 增持 上次评级 增持 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 厦门象屿（600057.SH）2025 年中报点 评：规模稳增物流亮眼，看好业绩稳步 回升 厦门象屿（600057.SH）深度：大宗供 应链巨头，产业链延伸恢复稳增长 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 厦门象屿（600057.SH）2025 年三季报点 评：经营优势巩固，Q3 盈利大幅回升 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件：厦门象屿 ummary]发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 3169 亿元，同比+6. ...

Summary of Bulk Supply Chain Industry Research Industry Overview - The bulk supply chain industry has a low net profit margin, typically ranging from 0.5% to 0.6%, with state-owned enterprises enjoying significant advantages in funding rates, creating high barriers to entry [1][3][4] - The demand growth driven by urbanization in China allows leading companies to achieve continuous growth by increasing market share, demonstrating resilience through economic cycles [1][3] - Since 2025, commodity prices have stabilized or increased, coupled with anti-involution policies, which are expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of bulk supply chain companies [1][3][6] Core Competitiveness - Key competitive advantages of bulk supply chain companies include: - High dividend yields and low valuations (PE) [5][6] - Thin profit margins but significant profitability elasticity [5][6] - High entry barriers and advantages for state-owned enterprises [5][6] - Broad growth potential, with opportunities to increase market share [5][6] Business Model - Bulk supply chain companies operate on a light asset model, locking in upstream and downstream orders to mitigate price volatility risks and secure stable service fees [1][7] - They generate profits through capital advances and comprehensive logistics services, requiring bank loan support and utilizing futures to hedge risks [1][12] Market Trends - The bulk supply chain market in China is expected to show a trend of concentration among leading companies, which will leverage economies of scale to capture larger market shares over the next decade [1][16] - Despite the current low concentration in the market, leading companies are anticipated to achieve sustained growth and resilience through natural market share concentration [16][17] Financial Performance - The industry has experienced fluctuations in profit margins due to intensified competition, accounting standard changes, and improved resource turnover efficiency [14][15] - Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu have maintained net profit margins around 0.5% to 0.6%, indicating significant elasticity in profitability during favorable market conditions [3][5] Risk Management - Bulk supply chain companies employ various strategies to mitigate price risks, including collecting a 15% deposit from customers and using a combination of futures and spot contracts for hedging [13][24] - Effective risk management is crucial for long-term stability, especially given the low profit margins where any risk event can significantly impact net profits [25] Recent Developments - In the first half of 2025, the profitability of bulk supply chain companies showed improvement, with some companies achieving approximately 30% year-on-year growth through volume increases and customer structure optimization [30][31] - Companies have adapted to industry downturns by lowering service fees for quality clients and focusing resources on stronger operational partners to enhance stability and profitability [29][30] Future Outlook - The bulk supply chain industry is expected to continue evolving towards modernization and specialization, enhancing risk control and capital management [11][26] - The market remains promising, with opportunities for leading companies to expand overseas and optimize customer structures to recover and enhance profitability [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Xiamen Xiangyu is a leading player in the bulk supply chain industry, with a steady recovery in its extended industrial chain and enhanced comprehensive service capabilities, leading to expected stable performance recovery [5] - The company reported a revenue of 203.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.032 billion yuan, up 32.5% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2039.5 billion yuan, with a breakdown of 193.4 billion yuan from bulk supply chain operations, 4.996 billion yuan from logistics, and 5.284 billion yuan from manufacturing, reflecting year-on-year changes of +0.14%, +17.39%, and -6.71% respectively [2] - The net profit for H1 2025 was 1.032 billion yuan, with Q1 and Q2 profits of 509 million yuan and 523 million yuan, showing year-on-year increases of +24.88% and +40.83% respectively [2] - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 1.18%, down 0.22 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in financial, management, and sales expense ratios [2] Business Segments - The bulk commodity supply chain business saw a volume increase of 19.02% year-on-year, reaching 12.1 million tons, with significant growth in agricultural products and energy chemicals [2] - The logistics segment reported revenue growth, with comprehensive logistics, railway logistics, and agricultural product logistics achieving year-on-year increases of 16.39%, 20.75%, and 6.74% respectively [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.816 billion yuan, 2.117 billion yuan, and 2.375 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of +28.0%, +16.6%, and +12.2% [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability as the company resumes shipbuilding capacity, with 15 new ship orders signed in H1 2025 [3]