2026 年 03 月 06 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 匡培钦 S0350525120001 kuangpq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈依晗 S0350526010004 chenyh03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 航空货运龙头，跨境物流长坡厚雪 ——东航物流（601156）公司深度研究 最近一年走势 投资要点: 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、研究了东航物流基本面现状，包括业 务经营情况、财务状况等；2、对东航物流业务未来发展进行展望，并基 于核心假设进行了相关盈利预测分析，结合估值给出相关投资评级。 航空货运龙头，业务经验积淀深厚 公司前身东远物流成立于2004 年，2021 年 6 月公司在上交所上市，东航产投为控股股东，东航集 团为实际控制人，业务开展依赖于自身全货机以及兄弟公司东航股 份提供的客机腹舱。东航物流是航空物流综合服务商，业务包括航 空货运、综合物流及地面综合服务等。2016~2024 年，公司营业收 入/归母净利润 CAGR 分别为+19.4%/+30.0%，保持高速增长； 2025Q1~3 公司营收/归母净利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - China International Cargo Airlines Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong growth potential in the air logistics sector [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.92% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.836 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 66.21% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 17.77% to 135,000, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 21.60% to 6,362 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 794 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3]. Stock Market Activity - On February 9, the stock price of China International Cargo Airlines rose by 0.17%, with a trading volume of 126 million yuan [1]. - The financing buy-in amount for the day was 10.8762 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 14.844 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 3.9678 million yuan [1]. - The total balance of margin trading and securities lending stood at 257 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.80% of the circulating market value, which is below the 30th percentile level over the past year [1]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder is Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holding 14.4426 million shares, an increase of 126,700 shares compared to the previous period [3]. - The second-largest shareholder is E Fund CSI 300 ETF, with 10.5164 million shares, which decreased by 362,000 shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - Eastern Airlines Logistics experienced a decline in stock price by 1.53% on January 29, with a trading volume of 213 million yuan, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment towards the company [1]. Financing Summary - On January 29, Eastern Airlines Logistics had a financing buy-in amount of 20.08 million yuan, with a net financing purchase of 10.27 million yuan after repayments [1]. - The total financing and margin trading balance reached 1.127 billion yuan, accounting for 6.37% of the circulating market value, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year, indicating a high level of financing activity [1]. - In terms of securities lending, the company repaid 600 shares and sold 500 shares on January 29, with a selling amount of 9,360 yuan, while the remaining securities lending balance was 4.31 million shares, valued at 806,800 yuan, which is below the 10th percentile of the past year, indicating low lending activity [1]. Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics, established on August 23, 2004, and listed on June 9, 2021, is based in Changning District, Shanghai [1]. - The company's main business segments include comprehensive logistics solutions (46.66%), air express (41.77%), ground comprehensive services (11.44%), and others (0.14%) [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Eastern Airlines Logistics reported a decrease in revenue to 17.249 billion yuan, down 2.40% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.001 billion yuan, down 3.19% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 2.726 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.630 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders decreased to 39,500, a reduction of 26.75%, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 36.52% to 23,935 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 10.085 million shares, a decrease of 6.9774 million shares from the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - China International Cargo Airlines Co., Ltd. is a major player in the domestic air logistics service sector, showing significant growth in revenue and net profit in recent periods [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company was established on November 14, 2003, and is located in Shunyi District, Beijing [2]. - It specializes in air cargo services, air cargo station services, and comprehensive logistics solutions, with the revenue composition being 71.01% from air cargo, 22.65% from comprehensive logistics solutions, and 5.95% from air cargo station services [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.92% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.836 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 66.21% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 135,000, a decrease of 17.77% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 21.60% to 6,362 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 794 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3]. Group 4: Financing and Margin Trading - On January 21, the company experienced a financing buy-in of 10.1257 million yuan, with a net financing outflow of 2.7908 million yuan, resulting in a total financing balance of 26.9 million yuan, which is 2.94% of the circulating market value [1]. - The margin trading data indicates a higher level of short selling activity, with 8,200 shares sold and a remaining short balance of 48.74 million yuan, exceeding the 50th percentile level over the past year [1].

Core Viewpoint - China International Cargo Airlines Co., Ltd. has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating a strong position in the domestic air logistics market [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 16.636 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.836 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 66.21% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 794 million yuan [3] Group 2: Shareholder and Market Data - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 135,000, a decrease of 17.77% compared to the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per person increased by 21.60% to 6,362 shares [2] - The top circulating shareholder is Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holding 14.4426 million shares, an increase of 126,700 shares from the previous period [3] Group 3: Financing and Margin Data - On January 19, the company had a financing balance of 271 million yuan, accounting for 3.00% of the market capitalization, which is below the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] - The company had a net financing purchase of 589,100 yuan on January 19, with a total financing and securities balance of 272 million yuan [1] - The short selling data on January 19 showed a repayment of 11,300 shares and a short selling amount of 24,400 yuan, indicating a higher level of short selling compared to the past year [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a "reverse involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity. The e-commerce express delivery sector is expected to see healthy competition opportunities in the medium to long term. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with both performance and valuation having room for growth. J&T Express is expected to benefit from high growth and market share expansion in overseas markets [16] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is positive due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve further in 2026, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [16] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the expected demand boost from the production of iron ore in Western Australia and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and Hainan Airlines are recommended for attention [16] - The aviation sector is expected to see Q3 performance as a potential signal for a long-term market upturn, with stable demand growth and a tightening supply situation. Companies such as China Eastern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are suggested for early positioning [16] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a robust demand with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, reaching 180.6 billion pieces in November 2025. However, the business revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [25][30] - Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with YTO achieving a 13.55% increase and Shentong a 14.67% increase in November 2025 [30] Shipping and Vessels - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 15.61% to 1388 points, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation rose by 11.00% to 795 points [47] - The overall shipping market is expected to improve, with the BDI index showing a decrease of 10.23% to 1591 points, indicating a potential recovery phase ahead [47] Aviation - In November 2025, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 60 million people, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The cargo and mail transport volume reached 930,000 tons, up by 10.8% [56] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 85.57%, indicating a stable demand environment [62] Ports - From January 5 to January 11, 2026, China's port cargo throughput reached 26.275 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.06%, while container throughput increased by 5.50% to 685,000 TEU [80]

Core Insights - SF Holding and J&T Express have announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement involving a total investment of HKD 8.3 billion, aimed at enhancing their global logistics network and better serving Chinese enterprises going abroad [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The mutual shareholding will see SF Holding issue 226 million H shares at HKD 36.74 per share, while J&T Express will issue 822 million Class B shares at HKD 10.10 per share [1] - Post-transaction, SF Holding will own 10% of J&T Express, and J&T Express will hold 4.29% of SF Holding [1] - This partnership is expected to leverage both companies' strengths to create a more efficient and resilient global logistics network [1][2] Group 2: Company Profiles - SF Holding is the largest logistics service provider in China and Asia, ranked 393rd in the Fortune Global 500, offering end-to-end logistics solutions across approximately 200 countries [3] - J&T Express, founded in 2015, is a leading logistics operator in Southeast Asia and China, with a presence in 13 countries, focusing on customer-centric and efficient logistics solutions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details a conditional share subscription agreement between Jitu Express and SF Holding, which involves the subscription of 226 million H shares at HKD 36.74 per share and 822 million B shares at HKD 10.10 per share, totaling approximately HKD 82.99 billion for the company [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jitu Express is a global logistics service operator that has achieved rapid growth in multiple countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, leveraging localized operational experience and a solid network foundation [2]. - SF Holding is the largest logistics service provider in China and Asia, ranked 393rd on the Fortune Global 500 list, offering end-to-end comprehensive logistics solutions across approximately 200 countries and regions [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of the Transaction - The investment in SF Holding is strategically significant for Jitu Express, as it establishes a solid trust foundation for deeper cooperation, expanding service and network coverage to benefit customers [3]. - The collaboration will enhance Jitu Express's international business capabilities by combining its strong last-mile delivery network and localized operational experience with SF Holding's core resources and mature operational systems in cross-border logistics [3]. - The partnership is expected to leverage complementary strengths in network resources, product differentiation, and customer bases, aiding both companies in expanding their service boundaries and enhancing competitiveness in the global logistics market [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Jitu Express (极兔速递-W) has entered into a conditional share subscription agreement with SF Holding (顺丰控股), agreeing to subscribe for 226 million H shares at a price of HKD 36.74 per share and 822 million Class B shares at HKD 10.10 per share, totaling approximately HKD 82.99 billion [1] - After the transaction, Jitu Express will hold about 4.29% of the enlarged issued shares of SF Holding, meaning SF Holding will not become a subsidiary of Jitu Express, and its financial results will not be consolidated into Jitu Express's financial statements [1] - The subscription shares will represent approximately 9.15% of Jitu Express's issued share capital as of the announcement date and about 8.45% of the enlarged issued share capital after the subscription [1] Group 2 - The group is a global logistics service operator that has achieved rapid growth in multiple countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has established a strong localized operational experience and network [2] - SF Holding is the largest logistics service provider in China and Asia, ranked 393rd in the Fortune Global 500, offering end-to-end integrated logistics solutions with a broad global service network covering around 200 countries and regions [2] - The strategic significance of this transaction lies in establishing a solid trust foundation between Jitu Express and SF Holding, facilitating deeper cooperation and expanding service and network coverage to benefit customers [3] - The collaboration will enhance both companies' capabilities in domestic and international logistics, leveraging Jitu Express's strong last-mile delivery network and local operational experience alongside SF Holding's core resources in cross-border logistics [3]

Core Viewpoint - Eastern Airlines Logistics has experienced a decline in stock price and revenue, indicating potential challenges in its operational performance and market position [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 9, Eastern Airlines Logistics' stock fell by 2.02%, trading at 17.92 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 28.449 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has decreased by 2.66%, with a 6.67% increase over the past 20 days and a 14.43% increase over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Eastern Airlines Logistics reported a revenue of 17.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.001 billion yuan, down 3.19% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.726 billion yuan, with 1.630 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 26.75% to 39,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 36.52% to 23,935 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 10.085 million shares, a decrease of 6.9774 million shares from the previous period [3].