航空物流领先服务商，业绩稳健增长可期待 ——东航物流首次覆盖报告 物流 东航物流（601156.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：杜冲 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 20,621 | 24,056 | 25,371 | 28,099 | 30,501 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -12% | 17% | 5% | 11% | 9% | | 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,488 | 2,688 | 2,629 | 2,810 | 3,115 | | Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | -32% | 8% | -2% | 7% | 11% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 1.57 ...

Core Insights - Eastern Airlines Logistics experienced a decline of 1.39% in stock price on November 21, with a trading volume of 171 million yuan. The net financing purchase amounted to 40.69 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest despite the price drop [1] Financing Overview - On November 21, the financing buy amount for Eastern Airlines Logistics was 50.99 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 10.30 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 40.69 million yuan. The total financing and margin balance reached 1.18 billion yuan, which is 7.65% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level of financing activity [1] - The financing balance is above the 90th percentile of the past year, suggesting elevated investor engagement [1] Margin Trading Details - On the same day, Eastern Airlines Logistics had a margin repayment of 400 shares and a margin sale of 800 shares, with a total sale value of 13,000 yuan. The remaining margin balance was 93.62 million yuan, which is below the 10th percentile of the past year, indicating low short-selling activity [1] Company Profile - Eastern Airlines Logistics, established on August 23, 2004, and listed on June 9, 2021, is based in Changning District, Shanghai. The company specializes in air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions. The revenue breakdown is as follows: integrated logistics solutions (46.66%), air express (41.77%), ground comprehensive services (11.44%), and others (0.14%) [1] Shareholder and Financial Performance - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Eastern Airlines Logistics was 39,500, a decrease of 26.75% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person increased by 36.52% to 23,935 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.001 billion yuan, down 3.19% year-on-year [2] - Since its A-share listing, Eastern Airlines Logistics has distributed a total of 2.726 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.630 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the seventh-largest circulating shareholder, holding 10.085 million shares, a decrease of 6.9774 million shares from the previous period. The Southern CSI 500 ETF ranked eighth, holding 9.213 million shares, down 217,400 shares [2]

Core Insights - On November 17, Guohang Airlines experienced no change in stock price, with a trading volume of 86.98 million yuan [1] - The company reported a financing buy-in of 9.07 million yuan and a financing repayment of 10.27 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 1.20 million yuan [1][2] - As of November 17, the total margin balance for Guohang Airlines was 257 million yuan [1] Financing and Margin Data - On the same day, Guohang Airlines had a financing balance of 256 million yuan, accounting for 4.53% of its market capitalization [2] - The company repaid 4,400 shares in short selling and sold 5,400 shares, with a selling amount of 35,500 yuan based on the closing price [2] - The remaining short selling volume was 109,600 shares, with a short selling balance of 721,200 yuan [2] Company Overview - Guohang Airlines, established on November 14, 2003, is located in Shunyi District, Beijing, and is set to be listed on December 30, 2024 [2] - The company specializes in air cargo services, air cargo station services, and comprehensive logistics solutions, with revenue composition as follows: air cargo 71.01%, comprehensive logistics solutions 22.65%, air cargo station services 5.95%, and others 0.39% [2] - As of September 30, the number of shareholders was 135,000, a decrease of 17.77% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 21.60% to 6,362 shares [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guohang Airlines achieved a revenue of 16.64 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.92% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.84 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 66.21% [2] Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Guohang Airlines has distributed a total of 794 million yuan in dividends [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder was Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holding 14.44 million shares, an increase of 126,700 shares from the previous period [3] - The second-largest shareholder was E Fund CSI 300 ETF, holding 10.52 million shares, a decrease of 362,000 shares [3] - Other notable shareholders include Huaxia CSI 300 ETF and 嘉实沪深300ETF, with respective holdings of 7.85 million shares and 6.77 million shares, both showing a decrease from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 59.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.1 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was influenced by the cancellation of U.S. small package tariff policies, which led to a decrease in cross-border e-commerce cargo volume [2][4]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 21.6% in Q3, indicating stable profitability. The company has been actively introducing cargo aircraft and optimizing operational routes, which contributed to this improvement [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company has passed stress tests, demonstrating resilience. With the improvement in China-U.S. trade relations, there are opportunities for recovery in general cargo demand, and freight rates are expected to have upward elasticity [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 172.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.0 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 59.9 billion yuan, and net profit was 7.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 shows that air express services, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions generated revenues of 27.9 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan, and 25.0 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +22.6%, +9.2%, and -27.9% [8]. Operational Insights - The average TAC price index decreased by approximately 6% year-on-year, and the average utilization rate of cargo aircraft fell by about 12%. However, the number of available cargo aircraft increased year-on-year, and the company adjusted its operational routes to enhance efficiency [8]. - The company faced increased financial expenses due to rising leasing debts from new aircraft acquisitions, and government subsidies decreased, impacting profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will be 26.5 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 33.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.1, 9.0, and 8.0 times, respectively [8].

Group 1: Aircraft Delivery and Financing - The company expects the delivery of six A350F freighters to occur between 2029 and 2031 [2] - The funding for the aircraft purchase will come from the company's own funds and self-raised funds, indicating the company's capability to fulfill the aircraft procurement contract [2] - The option to purchase four additional A350F freighters must be exercised by the end of 2026 at the latest [2] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration - The company has a diverse and stable shareholder structure, leveraging unique aviation resources from AVIC to deepen business cooperation with strategic shareholders [3] - Continuous collaboration with strategic partners like Cainiao Network in cross-border e-commerce logistics and optimization of cooperation routes is ongoing [3] - The company is enhancing cooperation with other strategic shareholders such as Sinotrans and Cathay Pacific to improve domestic market layout and global route network [3] Group 3: Logistics Solutions and Market Adaptation - The company is actively responding to uncertainties in the air cargo market due to global trade tariff policy changes by expanding cross-border e-commerce services [3] - Efforts are being made to reduce logistics production costs and expand into sectors like e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and cold chain logistics, aiming for dual improvements in business scale and quality [3] - The company has deployed a supply chain management system to achieve full-link digitalization of its business, laying a foundation for further expansion [3] Group 4: Air Cargo Station Development - The company currently operates six self-owned cargo stations in Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Chongqing [3] - There is a focus on enhancing hub cargo station capabilities and improving service quality [3] - Future adjustments to the route structure will further enhance the cargo station support capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience despite a slight decline in revenue and profit due to the impact of the US-China tariff war. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.25 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] - The company is adjusting its global route structure and exploring incremental demand to mitigate the negative impacts of tariff changes. The Shanghai Pudong export TAC price index fell approximately 6% year-on-year, but the decline is manageable [2][3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, although net profit was pressured by increased operating expenses and a significant drop in other income [3][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year [1][9] - The three main business segments showed varied performance: air express revenue grew by 22.6%, ground integrated services by 9.2%, while comprehensive logistics solutions fell by 27.9% due to the impact of the US policy changes on cross-border e-commerce [2][10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s gross profit margin increased, but net profit was affected by rising operating expenses, which increased by 1.6 percentage points to 3.75% [3][11] - Other income significantly decreased from 74.98 million yuan in the previous year to 5.48 million yuan in the current year, contributing to the decline in net profit [3][11] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.64 billion yuan, 2.98 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan respectively, with a notable adjustment of -25% and -28% for 2025 and 2026 [4][16] - The long-term investment value of the company remains significant, supported by its fleet of 18 B777 freighters and international routes, which are expected to sustain performance growth [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Eastern Airlines Logistics has shown a slight increase in stock price recently, but overall performance in terms of revenue and profit has declined year-on-year [1][2]. Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics, established on August 23, 2004, and listed on June 9, 2021, is based in Changning District, Shanghai. The company specializes in air express, ground comprehensive services, and integrated logistics solutions [1]. - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: Integrated logistics solutions 46.66%, air express 41.77%, ground comprehensive services 11.44%, and others 0.14% [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Eastern Airlines Logistics reported a revenue of 17.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.40%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.001 billion yuan, down 3.19% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 2.726 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.630 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Eastern Airlines Logistics was 39,500, a decrease of 26.75% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 36.52% to 23,935 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 10.085 million shares, which decreased by 6.9774 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.0 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue for Q3 2025 was primarily due to a temporary decrease in fleet utilization, with an average utilization of 12.8 hours per aircraft, down 13.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company anticipates a rebound in both volume and pricing in Q4, driven by the traditional peak season for consumption in Europe and the U.S. [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved despite the revenue decline, attributed to a decrease in other income related to subsidy recognition [1]. - The ground service business saw revenue growth of 9.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 43.7%, reflecting improved operational efficiency [3]. Market Dynamics - The impact of U.S. tariffs has shifted some revenue from comprehensive logistics solutions to air express services, with air express revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year [2]. - The company expects stable profits from ground services as new stations come online and operational costs are managed effectively [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.81 billion, 3.09 billion, and 3.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9x, 8x, and 7x [4][10]. - The anticipated seasonal price increases in Q4 are expected to significantly boost profitability compared to the previous year [3].

Core Viewpoint - Eastern Airlines Logistics reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, primarily due to the impact of tariff changes on its comprehensive logistics solutions [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 billion yuan, down 3.2% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 710 million yuan, down 9.8% [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 22%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year, driven by ground comprehensive services [2]. Business Segment Analysis - **Air Express**: Revenue reached 2.8 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year, despite a 5.5% decline in the Q3 TAC freight rate index [2]. - **Ground Comprehensive Services**: Revenue was 700 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year [2]. - **Comprehensive Logistics Solutions**: Revenue fell to 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year, mainly due to the U.S. cancellation of the small package tax exemption policy [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company's expense ratio increased to 3.8%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising management and financial expense ratios [2]. - Other income decreased by 93% year-on-year, contributing to a slight decline in net profit margin to 11.9%, down 0.5 percentage points [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively opening new flight routes and enhancing strategic partnerships to adapt to changing tariff policies [3]. - New international cargo transport routes were successfully launched, including "Hangzhou-Taiyuan-Kuala Lumpur" and "Xi'an-Kunming-Kuala Lumpur" [3]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed with SF Airlines to leverage both companies' resources and capabilities for improved logistics services [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.6 billion, 3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan, respectively, and continues to hold a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guohang was established on November 14, 2003, and is set to be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 30, 2024, positioning itself as a major player in the domestic air logistics service market with strong competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Guohang achieved a revenue of 16.636 billion yuan, ranking third among 12 companies in the industry, with the top competitor, China Foreign Trade, generating 75.038 billion yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 1.836 billion yuan, also placing Guohang third in the industry, behind China Foreign Trade's 2.912 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Guohang's debt-to-asset ratio was 10.19%, down from 12.27% year-on-year, significantly lower than the industry average of 40.47%, indicating strong solvency and low financial risk [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.12%, an increase from 13.29% year-on-year, surpassing the industry average of 14.94%, reflecting robust profitability [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - The total compensation for President Li Jun in 2024 was 3.158 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.056 million yuan compared to 2023 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 17.77% to 135,000, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account increased by 21.60% to 6,362.5 [5]