Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a seasonal off - season with weakening spot volume and price, and the industry contradiction is not prominent. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions to enter the market. Spot - futures stop - loss hedging can still be rolled [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating. The supply is high while the demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a subsequent decline is relatively large [6]. - The first round of coke price increase was finally delayed. The downstream is still restocking before the Spring Festival, which provides some support for the spot, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The first - round price increase may be regarded as a signal to sell goods [7]. - In the short term, iron ore is in an oscillatory and relatively strong pattern due to the expected resumption of production and restocking by steel mills. In the long term, the pressure from port inventory is obvious [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 28, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, J2609, and JM2609 were 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3301.00 yuan/ton, 1755.00 yuan/ton, and 1214.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 12.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 8.50 yuan, and percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 0.30%, 0.14%, and 0.70% respectively. The closing prices of near - month contracts for RB2605, HC2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3123.00 yuan/ton, 3280.00 yuan/ton, 1684.00 yuan/ton, and 1134.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, - 13.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, and 5.00 yuan, and percentage changes of - 0.32%, - 0.39%, - 0.12%, and 0.44% respectively [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 28 for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 46.00 yuan/ton, - 21.00 yuan/ton, 18.50 yuan/ton, and - 80.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 1.50 yuan [1]. - For the spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts on January 28, the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 157.00 yuan/ton, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.99, the coal to coke ratio was 1.48, the rebar disk profit was - 68.70 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 175.12 yuan/ton, with changes of - 6.00 yuan, 0.02, - 0.01, - 2.75 yuan, and - 7.94 yuan respectively [1]. Spot Market - On January 28, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3230.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, 3410.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 102.70 respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 0.65 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - finished - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB on January 28 were 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3280.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, 300.00 yuan/ton, and 792.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan, - 20.00 yuan, - 40.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 5.00 yuan [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, Ganqimao'du Coking Fine Coal, Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (out - of - warehouse), and Qingdao Port PB on January 28 were 667.00 yuan/ton, 1235.00 yuan/ton, 1430.00 yuan/ton, and 793.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and - 5.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 28 for HC main contract, RB main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 20.00 yuan/ton, 107.00 yuan/ton, - 111.37 yuan/ton, and 130.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, - 7.00 yuan, - 16.00 yuan, and - 18.00 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, use a unilateral interval oscillatory approach; conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive hedging or use option strategies [8]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For coking coal and coke, sell the spot at an appropriate time and wait for opportunities to short the futures after the price rises [8]. - For iron ore, consider going long in the short term and shorting at the pressure level in the long term [8].

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global market is experiencing a complex interplay of "stagnation" and "momentum," influenced by escalating tariff disputes and policy coordination challenges that suppress economic growth [1][3] - Expectations for a shift to accommodative monetary policies in major economies, resilient corporate earnings, and a structural bull market in commodities are providing localized upward momentum [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The previously strong U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a shift in investor sentiment and signaling the Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's anticipated rate cuts are a central theme for the quarter, with concerns about the sustainability of the tech-driven market rally [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,700, driven by the Fed's rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in the market [5] - The outlook for precious metals is bolstered by lower borrowing costs and increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over central bank independence [5] Group 4: Energy Market Dynamics - Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, the oil market appears well-supplied in the short term, with significant increases in production noted [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes the importance of collaboration with producers and consumers to ensure global energy system resilience [6] Group 5: European Market Trends - Europe is at a strategic turning point, with inflation easing and global monetary policies shifting towards further accommodation, leading to a positive outlook for European equities [8] - The Stoxx 600, German DAX, and UK FTSE are expected to maintain growth momentum, supported by fiscal stimulus and stable monetary policies [8] Group 6: Currency Market Analysis - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, influenced by significant news risks such as CPI data and central bank communications [8] - The U.S. dollar index has lost critical support levels, indicating a potential downward trend, while the British pound may be nearing the end of its upward channel against the dollar [9]