尽管如此，联博基金表示，其对A股市场中长期的展望依然保持积极。联博基金认为，此次回调更倾向 于短期投资者的获利了结，并未扭转A股市场利好的长期核心逻辑：一方面，人工智能的技术革命浪潮 远未结束，其深刻的产业变革与生产率提升潜力，将继续为相关领域带来巨大的增长机遇；另一方面， 尽管时点有所延后，但美联储本轮加息周期确实已见顶，货币政策转向宽松仍是大概率事件，这将为市 场提供关键的流动性支持。 在联博基金看来，近期全球市场波动或为A股创造了战略性布局机会。其认为，美联储将于2026年维持 宽松政策环境的情景并不会因单一次优于预期的就业数据而改变，而美联储与中国央行双双维持宽松的 环境有机会为中国经济增长与A股企业盈利修复铺平道路。从成长性与估值角度来看，现阶段中证500 指数可能尤其具备吸引力。 联博基金长线看好A股表现的核心理由并未改变：国内持续加码的政策支持正有效提振企业盈利能力和 投资价值，上市公司ROE水平与股息回报率有望进入稳步上升通道；民营企业在创新活力与效率提升方 面也正发挥着日益关键的作用，将成为推动经济高质量发展的重要力量。 近期，全球主要股市经历了一轮较大幅度的回调。对此，联博基金认为，此番调 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global market is experiencing a complex interplay of "stagnation" and "momentum," influenced by escalating tariff disputes and policy coordination challenges that suppress economic growth [1][3] - Expectations for a shift to accommodative monetary policies in major economies, resilient corporate earnings, and a structural bull market in commodities are providing localized upward momentum [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The previously strong U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a shift in investor sentiment and signaling the Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's anticipated rate cuts are a central theme for the quarter, with concerns about the sustainability of the tech-driven market rally [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,700, driven by the Fed's rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in the market [5] - The outlook for precious metals is bolstered by lower borrowing costs and increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over central bank independence [5] Group 4: Energy Market Dynamics - Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, the oil market appears well-supplied in the short term, with significant increases in production noted [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes the importance of collaboration with producers and consumers to ensure global energy system resilience [6] Group 5: European Market Trends - Europe is at a strategic turning point, with inflation easing and global monetary policies shifting towards further accommodation, leading to a positive outlook for European equities [8] - The Stoxx 600, German DAX, and UK FTSE are expected to maintain growth momentum, supported by fiscal stimulus and stable monetary policies [8] Group 6: Currency Market Analysis - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, influenced by significant news risks such as CPI data and central bank communications [8] - The U.S. dollar index has lost critical support levels, indicating a potential downward trend, while the British pound may be nearing the end of its upward channel against the dollar [9]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference shifted focus from inflation stability to employment concerns, indicating a dovish stance[2] - The economic data for August is expected to show "moderate inflation and weak employment," reinforcing the likelihood of a rate cut in September[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to be gradual, with a potential increase in inflation by 1.2%-1.4% due to tariff policies, which may hinder rate cuts in Q1 next year[2][9] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - A rate cut in September is highly probable, with another potential cut in Q4 to address economic downturn risks[2][9] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy must be forward-looking, considering its lagging effects on the economy[9] - The Fed's dual mandate now prioritizes employment over inflation, reflecting a significant policy shift[9] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The July non-farm payroll data was revised down significantly, indicating a more substantial cooling in the labor market than expected[9] - The unemployment rate remains stable, but the balance in the labor market is weakening, increasing the risk of job losses[9] - The labor market's cooling trend aligns with a noticeable slowdown in economic growth, primarily driven by consumer spending[9]

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The global visible copper inventory has increased, and downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. The short - term macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 6, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,280 yuan/ton, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, spot copper holders lowered the premium. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources had a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment indexes increased. Spot merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to take profits [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the expectation of a shift to loose monetary policy, providing macro - level support for copper prices. Trump plans to meet with Putin and Zelensky to attempt to achieve a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which may clear geopolitical risks and boost copper prices [3] - **Mine End**: FireFly Metals acquired the Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada in 2023 for 65 million Australian dollars. After the acquisition, it increased drilling, expanding the resource by 20 million tons to 60 million tons with a copper equivalent of about 3% [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The copper market needs to digest the impact of US tariff policies. LME copper prices declined due to inventory increases. High tariffs reduce the expected increase in copper supply outside the US, providing support for prices. Supply disruptions in Chile, such as the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, also affect production. Chile's copper exports to China rebounded in July [4] - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. Resource nationalism poses risks to new supply, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity is needed by 2035 to meet demand [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 14,275 tons to 156,125 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,579 tons to 20,346 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 135,900 tons, a change of 16,600 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton