降息还能走强？最近美元这波操作把不少人看懵了！ 两个月涨3.6%，明明美联储已经两次降息，可美元指数照样冲到100以上。 咱们普通人关心的是，这美元到底还能强多久？手里的资产该怎么调整？ 周叔今天就结合权威分析和最新消息，把这事儿掰开揉碎了讲明白，全是干货不绕弯！ 内部支撑：降息潮里的美元韧性 说句实在话，美元这波强势，核心还是美国经济自己撑得住。 9月到11月， 美联储两次降息共50个基点（BP）。 按常理货币该走弱，可美元指数反倒从96.64涨到100.15， 关键就在于通胀和就业的"反向操作"。 美国通胀韧性简直超出预期，9月仍维持在3.0%，远超2%的目标，服务类通胀更是降得磨磨蹭蹭。 看似软化，可9月非农新增就业突然冲到11.9万，比7、8月的7.3万和2.2万翻了几番，医疗保健、教育等行业的反弹，直接让市场不敢再赌大幅降息。 而劳动力市场更有意思，失业率从4.0%升到4.4%。 11月下旬，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯说还有降息空间，可柯林斯等官员却警告通胀风险，坚决反对12月降息。 更关键的是， 美联储内部现在吵成一团。 据CME"美联储观察"， 12月降息25个BP的概率71%，维持不变的概率29%， ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global market is experiencing a complex interplay of "stagnation" and "momentum," influenced by escalating tariff disputes and policy coordination challenges that suppress economic growth [1][3] - Expectations for a shift to accommodative monetary policies in major economies, resilient corporate earnings, and a structural bull market in commodities are providing localized upward momentum [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The previously strong U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a shift in investor sentiment and signaling the Federal Reserve's potential for interest rate cuts [4] - The Fed's anticipated rate cuts are a central theme for the quarter, with concerns about the sustainability of the tech-driven market rally [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,700, driven by the Fed's rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in the market [5] - The outlook for precious metals is bolstered by lower borrowing costs and increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over central bank independence [5] Group 4: Energy Market Dynamics - Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, the oil market appears well-supplied in the short term, with significant increases in production noted [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes the importance of collaboration with producers and consumers to ensure global energy system resilience [6] Group 5: European Market Trends - Europe is at a strategic turning point, with inflation easing and global monetary policies shifting towards further accommodation, leading to a positive outlook for European equities [8] - The Stoxx 600, German DAX, and UK FTSE are expected to maintain growth momentum, supported by fiscal stimulus and stable monetary policies [8] Group 6: Currency Market Analysis - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, influenced by significant news risks such as CPI data and central bank communications [8] - The U.S. dollar index has lost critical support levels, indicating a potential downward trend, while the British pound may be nearing the end of its upward channel against the dollar [9]

Core Insights - The global market is facing unprecedented uncertainty as the fourth quarter of 2025 approaches, influenced by the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, slowing global economic growth, and Trump's aggressive tariff policies [1][4]. Global Economic Outlook - The ATFX analysis team predicts a "divergent intensification" in the global economy, with some economies showing recovery momentum while others remain stagnant, driven by significant divergences in central bank monetary policies, new tariff impacts, and escalating cross-border trade and technology frictions [4]. US Market Analysis - The previously strong US labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a shift in investor sentiment and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is a key theme for the quarter [5]. - The performance of technology giants is raising questions about the sustainability of record-high indices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices reached a historical high of $3,700, driven by the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and structural demand increases, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding precious metals [6]. Oil Market Dynamics - Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, the oil market appears well-supplied in the short term, with an average daily increase of 1 million barrels since February, although ongoing geopolitical developments pose risks to global energy security [7]. European Market Outlook - Europe is at a strategic turning point with slowing inflation and a shift towards looser global monetary policies, leading to a generally positive outlook for European stocks, particularly benefiting from fiscal stimulus and stable monetary policies [9]. - The ATFX analysis team emphasizes the potential of undervalued European stocks, which offer attractive long-term growth opportunities despite global risks [9]. Currency Analysis - In addition to core asset classes, the analysis includes in-depth evaluations of major currency pairs, focusing on the impacts of monetary policy divergence, political risk premiums, and key technical levels on exchange rate movements [9].