在全球经济格局深度调整的当下，每一个宏观变量的细微波动都如同在平静湖面投下巨石，激起千层浪。 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，就业下行的风险正在上升，而特朗普政府的关税政策对通胀的影响可能只是短暂的。 鲍威尔的发言被市场解读为"降息信号"。 （图片来源于网络） 回顾今年，美国经济数据表现喜忧参半。经济增长动力明显减弱，上半年GDP 同比增速滑落至 1.2%，仅为 2024 年同期的 50% 左右，而作为经济增长核 心引擎的消费支出，受居民信心不足、信贷成本高企等因素拖累，增速持续放缓。就业市场的 "降温" 则更为直观：7 月非农就业新增人数不及预期，更 值得警惕的是，5 月、6 月非农业部门新增就业数据从初始公布的 14.4 万、14.7 万，大幅下修至仅 1.9 万、1.4 万，就业市场韧性不足的问题凸显。通胀方 面，尽管当前数据仍高于美联储 2% 的政策目标，但环比增速已显现缓和迹象。正是在这一复杂经济背景下，鲍威尔的讲话释放出美联储对经济前景判断 的微妙转向，为后续政策调整埋下伏笔。 不过，美联储内部对 "是否降息" 仍存在明显分歧，鹰派声音并未消退。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔 ...

自2023年10月正式推出场外掉期清算业务以来，海南国际清算所可清算目录持续扩容，掉期清算产品达 到45个，已覆盖钢材、铁矿、废钢、甲醇等多个大宗商品品类，开户机构超过240家。截至目前，海南 国际清算所累计清算规模突破200万吨，清算合约价值突破40亿元，客户保证金实时余额峰值达1.4亿 元，日均客户权益近1亿元。尤为可喜的是，今年以来各项业务指标较2024年同期均实现了4到5倍的强 劲增长。 "自贸港速度"生动诠释了海南国际清算所从筹建到实现场外清算业务全面落地的跨越式发展——这一国 际一流清算平台雏形的快速成形，既彰显了我国金融市场建设的"中国效率"，更凝结着清算领域工作 者"无我奉献，有为担当"的精神面貌。 创新增能，智启新章，聚焦期现联动，优化风控策略。日前，"新形势下大宗商品风险管理与市场创新 融合发展论坛"在北京举办。该论坛由海南国际清算所股份有限公司（下称海南国际清算所）、中国人 民大学深圳研究院主办，上海佰掮商务咨询有限公司、首创证券股份有限公司、方正中期期货有限公司 协办。论坛吸引了大宗商品生产商、贸易企业及期货公司的代表参会。海南国际清算所总经理刘世源、 中国钢铁进出口产业联盟理事长耿波 ...

Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum on "Risk Management and Market Innovation in the Context of Commodities" was held in Beijing, focusing on the integration of risk management and market innovation [1] - The event was organized by Hainan International Clearing House and attracted representatives from commodity producers, trading companies, and futures firms [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since 2025, the global economy has entered a deep adjustment period, with the commodity market facing pressures from geopolitical conflicts, energy transitions, and supply chain resilience [1] - Companies in the commodity sector are focusing on refined cost control and precise risk hedging as essential survival strategies [1] Group 3: Hainan International Clearing House Developments - Hainan International Clearing House has rapidly developed a comprehensive risk management system and has launched an independent clearing system for over-the-counter derivatives [2][3] - Since the launch of its swap clearing business in October 2023, the clearing house has expanded its product offerings to 45 types, covering various commodities [3] - The clearing scale has surpassed 200,000 tons, with a contract value exceeding 4 billion yuan, and a peak customer margin balance of 140 million yuan [3] Group 4: Key Insights from the Forum - The forum provided insights into macroeconomic challenges, including changes in domestic and international interest rates and their impact on monetary policy [4] - It emphasized the importance of understanding the differences between over-the-counter derivatives and other financial instruments for businesses [4] - The forum discussed asset management strategies, highlighting the potential for fixed income products combined with options to enhance returns [4] Group 5: Energy Transition and Supply Chain Efficiency - The transition towards dual carbon goals is reshaping the energy structure and commodity allocation logic [5] - The forum highlighted the importance of integrating futures and spot markets to reduce costs and enhance efficiency for manufacturing enterprises [6] Group 6: Logistics and Supply Chain Innovations - The opening of the Li Jiazai No. 6 coal distribution station marks a significant step in optimizing coal logistics in Henan province [8][9] - The station aims to enhance the efficiency of coal supply chains by integrating production, transportation, and storage [9][10] - The facility is designed to handle over 500,000 tons of coal annually and features advanced coal blending technology for customized supply solutions [10][11] Group 7: Future Directions - The collaboration between Zhongping Supply Chain and Zheng Coal Group aims to create a new brand for coal blending in Henan, focusing on quality control and stable supply [12] - The initiative seeks to establish a green logistics model, promoting sustainable practices in coal transportation and storage [12]

有色金属领域，海外低库存和宏观预期不稳背景下，企业坚持严格套保为宜，避免过多风险敞口暴露。 新能源金属领域，供需过剩仍然存在，需求有下滑预期，冶炼端紧跟利润修复抓住卖保机会。黑色建材 领域，炉料端下半年压力仍在，焦煤供给以及上游库存依然偏空，同时铁矿石产能释放，将从成本端继 续拖累钢材，建议对产业链品种进行卖出保值。能化领域，下半年抢出口后需求增速下降，供给端仍然 面临新产能投放及闲置产能较大的困境，建议企业及时进行利润锁定。农业领域，政策调控生猪供应节 奏，生猪供应压力仍在，关注行业利润锁定机会。农产品普遍丰产，棕榈油、棉花、白糖关注高位套保 机会。饲料年度丰产不变，但进口政策变化及下游需求支撑，豆粕玉米关注买入保值。 2025年宏观形势复杂多变，全球经贸格局面临深刻变革。尽管面临国际贸易环境波动、工业品价格低 迷、房地产市场疲软等诸多挑战，中国经济以战略定力锚定高质量发展。政策协同发力、产业多元发 展、内需稳步提振、创新不断增强，中国经济展现出了强劲的韧性。 王稹表示，在市场节奏和风格快速切换的环境中，中信期货研究所将继续深入挖掘各类产业客户的研究 需求，加强市场分析、趋势研判与风险管理方案的结合，积极服 ...