中美经贸冲击下后市展望 国投期货研究院 2025/10/13 市 场风险偏好高位运行，边际变化积累催生避险交易 图：9月降息落地后，美元指数自低位反弹，强于人民币贬值程度 图：美元在岸流动性收紧，但尚未出现危机模式 • 地缘局势偏稳推进，但没有明确破局；中美经贸问题有所反复，近期出现违背会谈成果迹象。 • 美联储降息态度中性谨慎，国际政坛短期动荡，推动美元指数阶段性反弹，美元流动性边际收敛。 情景推演： TACO交易 o r新一轮博弈的开始 图：4月2日对等关税冲击后，市场风险偏好逐步提升 图：市场计价美联储今年仍有2次25bp降息幅度 • 基准情景：受制于美国国内金融状况或实体供应链压力，特朗普可能转鸽，谈判仍然向达成共识方向推 进，市场出现脉冲式冲击后的交易机会。 • 风险情景：目前美国和盟友达成阶段性框架协议，美国金融状况好于4月对等关税时期，美债避险属性修 复，特朗普可能考虑继续施压，谈判受阻下市场避险交易持续性上升。 • 短期跟踪：由于特朗普并未否认APEC两国领导人会面，且中国商务部亦表示对于出口而言是限制而非禁 止，比特币和美股等市场表现积极，因此本周初市场定价基准情景，即TACO交易的模式。 ...

Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum on "Risk Management and Market Innovation in the Context of Commodities" was held in Beijing, focusing on the integration of risk management and market innovation [1] - The event was organized by Hainan International Clearing House and attracted representatives from commodity producers, trading companies, and futures firms [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Since 2025, the global economy has entered a deep adjustment period, with the commodity market facing pressures from geopolitical conflicts, energy transitions, and supply chain resilience [1] - Companies in the commodity sector are focusing on refined cost control and precise risk hedging as essential survival strategies [1] Group 3: Hainan International Clearing House Developments - Hainan International Clearing House has rapidly developed a comprehensive risk management system and has launched an independent clearing system for over-the-counter derivatives [2][3] - Since the launch of its swap clearing business in October 2023, the clearing house has expanded its product offerings to 45 types, covering various commodities [3] - The clearing scale has surpassed 200,000 tons, with a contract value exceeding 4 billion yuan, and a peak customer margin balance of 140 million yuan [3] Group 4: Key Insights from the Forum - The forum provided insights into macroeconomic challenges, including changes in domestic and international interest rates and their impact on monetary policy [4] - It emphasized the importance of understanding the differences between over-the-counter derivatives and other financial instruments for businesses [4] - The forum discussed asset management strategies, highlighting the potential for fixed income products combined with options to enhance returns [4] Group 5: Energy Transition and Supply Chain Efficiency - The transition towards dual carbon goals is reshaping the energy structure and commodity allocation logic [5] - The forum highlighted the importance of integrating futures and spot markets to reduce costs and enhance efficiency for manufacturing enterprises [6] Group 6: Logistics and Supply Chain Innovations - The opening of the Li Jiazai No. 6 coal distribution station marks a significant step in optimizing coal logistics in Henan province [8][9] - The station aims to enhance the efficiency of coal supply chains by integrating production, transportation, and storage [9][10] - The facility is designed to handle over 500,000 tons of coal annually and features advanced coal blending technology for customized supply solutions [10][11] Group 7: Future Directions - The collaboration between Zhongping Supply Chain and Zheng Coal Group aims to create a new brand for coal blending in Henan, focusing on quality control and stable supply [12] - The initiative seeks to establish a green logistics model, promoting sustainable practices in coal transportation and storage [12]