今天在金融时报 上看到下面这个图，而报告中也提到O penAI 今年已签署约 1 万亿美元 的计算能力交易，但这些承诺远超其收入，OpenAI今年的亏损可能是100亿美元。 虽然奥特曼一直讲：实现盈利"并不是我最关心的十大问题之一"，但目前OpenAI的开销实在是太大 了。 在Bernstein的一个分析中，提到奥特曼有能力让经济倒退十年... OpenAI为什么大而不能倒？看下OpenAI的影响力。 1、OpenAI跟AMD、英伟达、甲骨文和 CoreWeave 的交易将在未来十年内为 OpenAI 提供超过 20GW的计算能力，约等于 20 座核反应堆的电力；每 1 吉瓦的AI计算能力部署成本约为 500 亿美 元，合计总成本约为 1 万亿美元。 2、FT认为，OpenAI 与英伟达和 AMD 的交易可能分别高达 5000 亿美元和 3000 亿美元，与甲骨文 的交易将使 OpenAI 额外支出 3000 亿美元，而CoreWeave 已披露与 OpenAI 的计算交易价值超过 220 亿美元。星际之门的总投资是 5000 亿美元，跟软银、甲骨文一起。 3、65%的财富500强企业的都用着OpenAI的服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "too big to fail" needs to be re-evaluated in light of recent bank failures, including that of Silicon Valley Bank, which had assets of $250 billion [2]. Group 1: Bank Failures and Regulatory Response - The recent turmoil in the U.S. banking sector began with the failure of a small bank friendly to cryptocurrency in early March, which then spread to three other regional banks [2]. - The response from regulators to provide a funding channel for all banks was deemed "perfect," but the ideal response would have been to offer liquidity before the banks faced challenges [2][3]. Group 2: Market Competition and Concentration - Standard Chartered's CEO highlighted that despite JPMorgan Chase's significant deposit share of approximately 12%, the U.S. remains a highly competitive banking market [2]. - The concentration of deposit market share in major cities like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles should be noted by regulators, as 12% is manageable [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's acquisition of a "golden share" in U.S. Steel following its acquisition by Nippon Steel, suggesting that this move towards nationalization is detrimental to the American economy and contradicts the principles of capitalism [1][2]. Group 1: Government Control and Nationalization - The acquisition of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel has resulted in the U.S. government obtaining a "golden share," granting it voting rights and control over significant operational decisions, which raises concerns about the effectiveness of such nationalization efforts [2]. - Historical attempts at nationalizing the steel industry, such as President Truman's 1952 initiative, failed due to constitutional limitations, highlighting the challenges and potential pitfalls of government control over private enterprises [2][3]. - The article references past instances of government intervention in industries, such as the creation of Amtrak and the bailout of Continental Illinois National Bank, to illustrate the risks associated with nationalization and the loss of competitive market dynamics [3]. Group 2: Broader Implications for Industries - Various sectors, including aviation, automotive, healthcare, and energy, are experiencing forms of partial nationalization, where government regulations significantly influence operations despite nominal private ownership [4]. - The article raises concerns that the concept of a "golden share" could set a precedent for further government takeovers of struggling companies, potentially impacting major firms like Intel and OpenAI under the guise of national security [5]. - The author warns that undermining the free market through policies like the "golden share" could damage the U.S. stock market's attractiveness and hinder future entrepreneurial ventures, ultimately stifling economic growth [5].

Core Insights - BlackRock has acquired 43 global ports from Li Ka-shing for $22.8 billion, showcasing its strategic vision in controlling critical trade routes [12] - The firm manages $11.6 trillion in assets, equivalent to about 10% of global GDP, making it a significant player in the global economy [3][13] - BlackRock's Aladdin system monitors 25% of the world's investable assets, generating $1 billion annually from its technology services [2] Company Overview - Founded 40 years ago, BlackRock has grown to manage assets comparable to Japan's annual GDP, influencing global economic trends [1][3] - The firm has become a major shareholder in leading Chinese companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan, indicating its deep penetration into the Chinese market [1][6] Investment Strategy - BlackRock's recent acquisition of ports allows it to collect tolls and gain insights into global shipping data, enhancing its influence over the logistics sector [12] - The firm has significant stakes in various sectors, including renewable energy, technology, and finance, with notable holdings in companies like BYD and China Life [7][8] Influence and Power - BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, has become a "soft legislator" in the corporate world, with his annual letters shaping business strategies globally [5] - The firm has established a network of former employees in key government positions, blurring the lines between business and politics [4] Historical Context - BlackRock's rise from a small office in Manhattan to a global financial giant is marked by strategic mergers and acquisitions, particularly during financial crises [15][16] - The firm capitalized on the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, positioning itself as a key player in government-led financial recovery efforts [10][13] Future Outlook - BlackRock is expanding its presence in private markets and alternative investments, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, to seek new growth opportunities [16] - The firm is adapting its business model to focus on high-margin consulting and technology services as passive investment management fees decline [16] Global Impact - BlackRock's extensive asset management has raised concerns about systemic risks and regulatory scrutiny, with potential legislative actions being discussed in the U.S. and EU [13] - The firm's influence reflects the complexities of modern capitalism and the challenges of balancing open markets with national security concerns [17]