Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from January 12 - 16, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal futures are in a volatile stage. The global soybean supply is generally abundant. Domestic port soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are high, and pig farming is continuously loss - making, suppressing feed demand and prices. However, the decline in domestic oil - mill operating rates, suspension of imported soybean auctions, and local shutdown expectations have caused concerns about short - term supply, and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations are rising, providing support for the market. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will maintain a volatile pattern. Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival schedules [6] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy advice: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract is expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2730 - 2850 [10] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][23][26] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range volatile stage. The global soybean supply is abundant, and the South American harvest is suppressing costs. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher year - on - year, and pre - festival stocking demand is weak. However, due to delayed soybean arrivals and slower crushing rhythms, domestic oil mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is rigid demand on the demand side. Under the game of long and short forces, the soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile stage. Key factors to watch are domestic procurement rhythm changes, US bio - diesel progress, and South American weather [30] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract is expected to be in a volatile - bullish stage in the short term [33] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47][50]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global soybean supply is expected to remain ample due to increased production in South America, despite a decrease in U.S. acreage. This situation, combined with a slowdown in global protein consumption growth, is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, particularly for U.S. soybeans, which will face export competition. The focus will be on the support levels between 1050-1080 [2][43]. Group 1: International Soybean Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oilseed supply is projected to increase in the 2025/26 year, with ending stocks expected to rise by approximately 2 million tons year-on-year [12]. - The increase in oilseed production will primarily come from canola, while soybean production is expected to decline slightly, although soybean crushing demand remains strong [12][13]. - The U.S. soybean export outlook for 2025/26 is pessimistic, with potential downward adjustments anticipated for export estimates and ending stocks [14]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Supply and Demand Outlook - China's soybean imports are expected to stabilize at around 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 year, with a significant portion coming from Brazil [29]. - The domestic soybean meal consumption outlook is concerning due to the livestock industry's losses entering a capacity reduction phase, which may lead to a downward shift in price levels [2][43]. - The domestic market is expected to experience a weak basis and lower price levels as the industry adjusts to changing supply dynamics [2][43]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The soybean meal market is anticipated to operate within a wide range of 2600-3200, influenced by near-term supply and long-term tightening expectations [4][45]. - Price fluctuations are expected in the first half of the year due to temporary supply-demand mismatches, followed by a stabilization period as supply pressures increase [4][45]. - The Brazilian soybean market is under pressure from high export volumes, which could lead to significant downward pressure on prices if weather conditions remain favorable [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the domestic supply has significant pressure with soybean inventories at the highest level in recent years. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, due to the US's tariff threats and no improvement in US soybean imports, prices will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volumes from Indonesia due to increasing biodiesel consumption support the price center of oils. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered when the inventories in consuming and producing areas are not fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand. In the short - term, due to the impact of the trade war on market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [5][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data in the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil at a historical high, a bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, along with the expected high yield in the new season and strong selling hedging pressure, the short - term cotton price is likely to decline [11][12]. - For eggs, after the holiday, there are multiple bearish factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the low point of the rainy season. In the short - term, a bearish strategy for near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, prices may rebound due to stocking demand, and in the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [14][16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the theoretical supply pressure is large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative. The near - term futures premium is being squeezed out. However, considering the early price decline this year, risks before the Spring Festival have been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions in near - term contracts and consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after the spot price stabilizes, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated weakly due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline as the soybean arrival at ports was large and the operating rate during the National Day holiday decreased. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. The IBGE's October monthly report showed that the expected total soybean planting area in Brazil this year is 47.7 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year [2]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, expect range - bound fluctuations [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than in August. Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15%. On Wednesday, domestic oils fluctuated. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of cotton decreased. As of October 10, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, and the weaving mill operating rate was 37.6%, both lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. From October 9 - 12, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased compared to the holiday period but decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: Expect short - term price decline [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased [14]. - **Strategy**: Bearish for near - term contracts in the short - term, potential medium - term rebound, and sell on rebounds in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The demand from secondary fattening and slaughter increased, and the market trading activity was high. The breeding side still intended to raise prices [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in near - term contracts, consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after spot price stabilization, and maintain reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [18].