农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 近期市场资讯，据印度有关机构消息，印度全国播种进度落后于去年同期。截至8月15日，印度新年度棉花播种面 积达1080万公顷（约16200万亩），较去年同期1110万公顷（约16650万亩）减少约2.7%。据马托格罗索州农业经济 学研究所(IMEA)数据显示，截至8月15日，该州采摘进度环比提升13个百分点至40.0%，同比（57.0%）落后17.0 个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA调减全球棉花产量及期末库存，其中美棉产量大幅下调，全球供需格局 直接由偏松转为了偏紧，报告利多棉价，发布之后美棉主力应声上涨。不过目前来看美棉产区天气并未出现明显 异常，其他主产国今年供应端天气的叙事性也不足，市场对偏紧格局仍存怀疑，此次产量调减或无法对棉价形成 有利支撑，ICE美棉冲高后又小幅回落维持震荡态势，预计暂难突破震荡区间。国内方面，郑棉在外盘上涨带动下 本周连续震荡上行。7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，供应趋 紧预期短期对棉价形成较强支撑。不过当前下游需求仍偏弱，纱厂仍处于降开机和累库的过程中，棉价上方压力 仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - On August 12, 2025, A-share major indices closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a seven - day consecutive rise and hitting a new high for the year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1881.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The policies related to coal production verification have affected supply, with some coal mines shutting down. There are expectations of tightened coking coal supply and steel mill production restrictions [2]. - Due to large net short positions of speculators, there was short - covering in the US sugar market, leading to the upward movement of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract [2]. - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment, causing the upward movement of Shanghai rubber [3]. - The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production, leading to a 2.18% increase in CBOT soybeans on August 12. In the domestic market, although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the strong and volatile adjustment of soybean meal prices [3][5]. - The current low - season for pork consumption, high - temperature weather, and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter are keeping the pig market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. - On August 12, the palm oil market had many fundamental positive factors, and its price continued to rise [6]. - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. - Positive news in the steel market, including macro - level agreements and industry - level production restriction expectations, drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. - The supply of iron ore tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend of iron ore prices [7]. - The asphalt market had low demand but was supported by low inventory, with prices oscillating in the short term [7]. - The log market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with weak spot trading, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. - The cotton inventory decreased, and the price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract showed certain trends [8]. - The adjustment of mineral resource policies and the tightening of the Guinean bauxite mining policy increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption, and the Shanghai aluminum market was oscillating [9]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.24% to 2409.40 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.91% to 1069.81 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4143.82, a rise of 21.31 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 12, the coke weighted index closed at 1792.3, a rise of 80.7; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1292.3 yuan, a rise of 85.6 [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering in the US sugar market and an increase in spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract moved up on August 12. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in July 2025 were 3.5937 million tons, a decrease of 4.98% compared to the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The 90 - day suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US boosted market sentiment. On August 12, Shanghai rubber oscillated upward. In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the estimated total tire shipments in 2025 increased by 0.9% compared to 2024 [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 12, CBOT soybeans rose 2.18%. The USDA lowered the forecast of US soybean production for the 2025/26 season. Domestically, on August 12, the M2601 main contract closed at 3091 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.62%. Although there is high supply pressure in the short - term, concerns about future supply shortages support the price [3][5]. Live Pigs - On August 12, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 14230 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.64%. The current low - season for pork consumption and expected increase in group - farm pig slaughter keep the market in a state of loose supply and demand [5]. Palm Oil - On August 12, the palm oil price continued to rise. The main contract P2509 closed at 9362, a rise of 1.56%. From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month [6]. Shanghai Copper - The 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce supported copper prices. The supply and demand situation made the copper price show an oscillatory trend [6]. Steel - On August 12, rb2510 closed at 3258 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3484 yuan/ton. Positive news drove steel prices to run strongly in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - On August 12, the iron ore 2509 main contract rose 1.7% to 807.5 yuan. The supply tightened, and the demand was resilient, resulting in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On August 12, the asphalt 2510 main contract rose 0.57% to 3506 yuan. The low - demand but low - inventory situation made the price oscillate in the short term [7]. Logs - On August 12, the log 2509 contract had certain price movements. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The market had a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and prices were affected by multiple factors [7][8]. Cotton - On the night of August 12, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14090 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 85 contracts [8]. Alumina and Shanghai Aluminum - On August 12, ao2509 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. Policy adjustments increased the risk of bauxite supply interruption. al2509 closed at 20735 yuan/ton, and the market was oscillating [9].

红枣主力合约今日快速冲高后尾盘回落，盘中涨幅一度达到4%，最终收涨2.29%。产区天气的变化对盘 面形成了一定的提振，同时有市场机构的调研数据显示产量有所减少，多头情绪受到支撑。但目前市场 并未形成一致观点，对于产量的预期还有分歧。 多晶硅震荡偏弱烧碱跌近3% 多晶硅在经历一波流畅的大涨行情之后，近日陷入震荡。基本面方面，南华期货分析称，多晶硅价格上 涨带来利润空间的走扩，会促使生产企业提升开炉意愿，带动产能进一步释放，这将使未来的库存压力 加大。需求端来看，上半年光伏抢装潮已提前消耗部分市场需求，导致下半年需求增量预期相对有限。 从"反内卷"逻辑分析，若未来行业能达成切实有效的整合协议，或通过减停产等协同举措调节供需关 系，将有望扭转当前多晶硅产业的困境，改善整体经营环境，进而对价格形成向上驱动。综合而言，下 半年多晶硅价格将受宏观逻辑与基本面逻辑交替主导，期货价格或将呈现宽幅震荡的格局。 烧碱期货表现偏弱，隆众资讯数据显示，本周企业走货压力凸显，烧碱库存周增8.84%。截至8月7日， 全国20万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存46.17万吨（湿吨），环比上调8.84%，同比上调17.08%。 本周全国液碱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, dropping to a low of 2661.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, rapeseed meal prices have retreated from high levels due to increased supply from imported soybeans and high operating rates of oil mills, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - Dayue Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to low inventory levels of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal [4] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for rapeseed meal, which could positively influence futures prices despite competitive pricing pressures from soybean meal [5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to rise with the onset of the aquaculture peak season, although the competitive advantage of soybean meal may weaken the demand outlook for rapeseed meal [3] - The market is closely monitoring the uncertainties surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3] - The seasonal consumption of aquaculture feed is strong, but the price competitiveness of rapeseed meal remains a concern, especially with the anticipated arrival of Brazilian soybeans [5] Group 3: Price Projections - Dayue Futures projects that rapeseed meal prices will oscillate between 2680 and 2740 yuan in the short term [4] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that support levels for rapeseed meal prices are between 2620 and 2650 yuan, with resistance levels at 2850 to 2855 yuan [5]

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal closed at 956.0 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in open interest by 722 contracts [1] - During the week of April 21-25, the coking coal futures opened at 953.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 976.0 CNY/ton and a low of 924.5 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.22% [1] Group 2 - On April 23, Mongolian company TT held an online auction for coking coal, with the starting price for Mongolian 4 raw coal set at 90 USD/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous auction on April 15, but all 102,400 tons offered went unsold [2] - The capacity utilization rate for 230 independent coking enterprises in China was reported at 75.27%, an increase of 1.86%, while total coking coal inventory decreased by 10.03 to 819.83 thousand tons, with available days of coking coal dropping by 0.41 days to 11.5 days [2] - Delays in shipments at the Dalrymple Bay coal terminal in Australia continue, with maintenance planned for May not alleviating the situation [2] Group 3 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that total coking coal inventory remains stable, with inventory pressure on the production side continuing to decline, while downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain essential procurement [3] - Recent environmental inspections have tightened regulations on radiation and gas, leading to a significant decline in border customs clearance for imported Mongolian coal, with daily clearance remaining below 1,000 trucks [3] - Zhongzhou Futures observed that after a significant prior decline, upstream inventory pressure has eased, and coking coal demand has increased slightly due to a minor recovery in coking profits, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [3]