期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 焦煤维持低位区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭震荡整理 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts amount to 482,008 kilograms, with a decrease of 26,360 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 28,900 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 31,488 yuan per kilogram, a low of 28,632 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 30,891 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 8.51% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts decreased by 24,486 kilograms, with specific declines from various warehouses including Zhongchu Wusong and Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao [2] - The ongoing fiscal negotiations in the U.S. Congress may impact market sentiment, as a potential government shutdown looms due to disagreements over immigration policy and funding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation phase due to factors such as tight supply expectations and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [6] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation trend as a result of the co - existence of a loose global soybean supply and positive demand expectations [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [6] - Trend judgment logic: The 3rd - week soybean actual crushing volume of oil mills was 1.9942 million tons, with an operation rate of 54.86% and a soybean meal inventory of 947,200 tons. South American weather disruptions delayed soybean harvesting, slowing down the domestic arrival rhythm. Oil mill inventories continued to decline, and some oil mills had shutdown plans around the Spring Festival. However, downstream feed enterprises had sufficient inventories, and the current procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with a dull spot market sentiment and the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival rhythm [6] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds. The M2605 was expected to continue its weak oscillation trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways stage, with slightly less funds. The M2605 is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][23] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [26] - Trend judgment logic: According to Mysteel data, the 3rd - week actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 378,900 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 963,300 tons. The global soybean supply remains loose, and although the domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, it is still at a relatively high historical level. However, the optimistic expectations brought by the US biodiesel policy have boosted the long - term demand outlook, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is gradually being released [27] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to changes in domestic procurement rhythm, progress of US biodiesel, and South American weather [27] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward stage, with more funds. The Y2605 might maintain an oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward stage, with slightly more funds. The Y2605 might continue the oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [40][45][47]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，2025/26榨季截至1月12日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为2309.55万吨，较去年同期的2884.91万吨 减少575.36万吨，降幅19.94%；甘蔗含糖分11.77%，较去年同期的11.75%增加0.02%；产糖率为 9.403%，较去年同期的9.551%减少0.148%；产糖量为217.17万吨，较去年同期的275.53万吨减少58.36万 吨，降幅21.18%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间5310~5380元/吨，个别下调10元/吨；云南制 糖集团报价5140~5230元/吨，部分下调10元/吨。原糖方面，泰国压榨进度同比仍偏低，但相比于此前 同比偏低的幅度在修复，未来随着生产进入中程，仍有望进一步恢复。国内方面，增产压力与节前补库 采购之间暂时取得平衡。未来下有成本支撑，上有保值压力，预计在补库结束前，期价延续震荡。 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉上涨0.03%，报收 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from January 12 - 16, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal futures are in a volatile stage. The global soybean supply is generally abundant. Domestic port soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are high, and pig farming is continuously loss - making, suppressing feed demand and prices. However, the decline in domestic oil - mill operating rates, suspension of imported soybean auctions, and local shutdown expectations have caused concerns about short - term supply, and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations are rising, providing support for the market. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will maintain a volatile pattern. Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival schedules [6] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy advice: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract is expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2730 - 2850 [10] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][23][26] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range volatile stage. The global soybean supply is abundant, and the South American harvest is suppressing costs. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher year - on - year, and pre - festival stocking demand is weak. However, due to delayed soybean arrivals and slower crushing rhythms, domestic oil mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is rigid demand on the demand side. Under the game of long and short forces, the soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile stage. Key factors to watch are domestic procurement rhythm changes, US bio - diesel progress, and South American weather [30] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract is expected to be in a volatile - bullish stage in the short term [33] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47][50]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE cotton futures prices experienced fluctuations, with a slight decline observed on December 31, 2023, closing at 64.26 cents per pound, down 0.06% from the opening price [1] Cotton Futures Market Review - On December 30, 2023, ICE cotton futures opened at 64.35 cents per pound, reached a high of 64.80 cents, and closed at 64.25 cents, reflecting a decrease of 0.25% [1] Cotton Market News - As of December 26, 2023, the inventory of ICE deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts stood at 11,600 bales, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - On December 30, 2023, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 9,185 cotton futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 338 receipts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The average import cotton price (M index) on December 30, 2023, was 72.75 cents per pound, down by 0.14 cents from December 29, 2023, with the 1% tariff import cost (excluding port fees) at 12,514 yuan per ton and the sliding scale tariff import cost at 13,604 yuan per ton [1] - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B index) was 15,500 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong for 3128B grade was 15,605 yuan per ton, an increase of 105 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1] - The national cotton basis index (CNCottonJ CF2605) was reported at 917 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly improved recently, and prices have seen a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, lacking support for price rebounds. Prices may fluctuate before the New Year's Day holiday, and attention should be paid to margin rule adjustments [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated and closed higher, and the night session continued the fluctuating trend. In the spot market, coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable. In the coke segment, steel mills in the Hebei region recently initiated the 4th round of price cuts for coke, to be implemented starting from January 1st [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coke enterprises started to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak, and mine inventories continued to accumulate. Last week, the raw coal production of coking coal mines decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 42,000 tons and 101,000 tons respectively. In the import aspect, the average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu last week was 194,400 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 137,800 tons year - on - year. The customs clearance volume declined significantly in the second half of the week, and the current inventory in the port supervision area is at a relatively high level. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports were closed on December 29th for Mongolia's National Liberation and Independence Day and resumed customs clearance on December 30th; they will be closed again on January 1st for New Year's Day and resume on January 2nd [2] - **Demand**: Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 2.2658 million tons, a slight increase of 300 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 12,900 tons year - on - year. It is expected to maintain this level in the short term [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a sideways trend, with the M2605 contract expected to fluctuate between 2,700 and 2,800 in the short - term [6][10] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend, and the Y2605 contract may be in a weak sideways trend in the short - term [30][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean meal main contract is in a sideways phase. High supply pressure is formed by the high level of oil mill operation and soybean meal inventory, while the high cost of imported soybeans and the repair of crushing profit support the price [6] - Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend with a relatively bullish capital situation. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a short - term sideways trend, with an expected operating range of 2,700 - 2,850 [9] - This week, the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend with a slightly bearish capital situation. The M2605 contract is expected to continue the sideways trend, with an expected operating range of 2,700 - 2,800 [10] 3. Related Data - The data involves soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26] Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range sideways phase. Although the domestic soybean oil production has decreased month - on - month recently, the inventory is still relatively high, and the demand is weak. The expected supply shortage in February - March and the cost of imported soybeans limit the downward space [30] - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic procurement rhythm, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend with a slightly bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may be in an interval sideways phase in the short - term [33] - This week, the soybean oil futures price is in a downward trend with a slightly bearish capital situation. The Y2605 contract may be in a weak sideways phase in the short - term [33] 3. Related Data - The data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [43][47][50]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

2025.12.15-12.19 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第49周油厂大豆实际压榨量205.58万吨，开机率为 56.55%，豆粕库存116.19万吨。近期国内大豆到港量下降，油厂开机率 回落，部分企业因原料衔接或库存压力停机，令近月供应呈现收紧预期， 对现货价格构成支撑。但豆粕库存同比仍处高位，且南美丰产预期不断 强化，远期供应格局趋于宽松。同时养殖持续亏损制约饲料消费恢复力 度。多空因素交织下，预计豆粕期货价格将处于震荡走势。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向： 71.3 图 图 图 主力较为偏多 | | 资金能量： -33.4 ■ ■ ■ 主力 ...