Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The short - term, medium - term and reference views for both coking coal (JM) and coke (J) are "oscillation". The intraday view for both is "oscillating strongly". Coking coal is expected to maintain a low - level range oscillation, and coke is expected to oscillate and consolidate due to stable supply and demand [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Production**: As of the week of February 6, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons. Coking coal production will experience a short - term contraction approaching the Spring Festival but is expected to recover quickly after the festival [5] - **Import**: In January, the Ganqimaodu Port had a total of 30,877 vehicle clearances. Although it decreased by 17.2% compared to December, it increased by 42.9% year - on - year, and Mongolian coal imports are still at a relatively high level [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 million tons [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental support for coking coal is limited, and there are still concerns about medium - to - long - term demand. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern [5] Coke (J) - **Supply**: As of the week of February 6, the combined daily average output of coke from all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.62 million tons [6] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 million tons [6] - **Outlook**: There are no obvious changes in the coke fundamentals this week. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, lacking one - sided momentum. In the short term, coke futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern [6]

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts amount to 482,008 kilograms, with a decrease of 26,360 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 28,900 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 31,488 yuan per kilogram, a low of 28,632 yuan per kilogram, and closed at 30,891 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 8.51% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse receipts decreased by 24,486 kilograms, with specific declines from various warehouses including Zhongchu Wusong and Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao [2] - The ongoing fiscal negotiations in the U.S. Congress may impact market sentiment, as a potential government shutdown looms due to disagreements over immigration policy and funding [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation phase due to factors such as tight supply expectations and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [6] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation trend as a result of the co - existence of a loose global soybean supply and positive demand expectations [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [6] - Trend judgment logic: The 3rd - week soybean actual crushing volume of oil mills was 1.9942 million tons, with an operation rate of 54.86% and a soybean meal inventory of 947,200 tons. South American weather disruptions delayed soybean harvesting, slowing down the domestic arrival rhythm. Oil mill inventories continued to decline, and some oil mills had shutdown plans around the Spring Festival. However, downstream feed enterprises had sufficient inventories, and the current procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with a dull spot market sentiment and the expectation of a South American bumper harvest [6] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival rhythm [6] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds. The M2605 was expected to continue its weak oscillation trend in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways stage, with slightly less funds. The M2605 is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][23] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage [26] - Trend judgment logic: According to Mysteel data, the 3rd - week actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 378,900 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 963,300 tons. The global soybean supply remains loose, and although the domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, it is still at a relatively high historical level. However, the optimistic expectations brought by the US biodiesel policy have boosted the long - term demand outlook, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand is gradually being released [27] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Pay attention to changes in domestic procurement rhythm, progress of US biodiesel, and South American weather [27] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in an upward stage, with more funds. The Y2605 might maintain an oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in an upward stage, with slightly more funds. The Y2605 might continue the oscillation - strong pattern in the short term [30] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [40][45][47]

Sugar Industry - As of January 12, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed volume is 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons or 19.94% compared to the same period last year [5] - The sugar content of sugarcane is 11.77%, an increase of 0.02% from last year's 11.75% [5] - The sugar production rate is 9.403%, down 0.148% from last year's 9.551% [5] - Sugar production is 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons or 21.18% compared to last year [5] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,310 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton; in Yunnan, prices range from 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton [5] - Although Thailand's crushing progress is still low year-on-year, there is potential for recovery as production progresses [5] - Domestic market shows a balance between increased production pressure and pre-holiday stockpiling, with expectations of price fluctuations before the end of stockpiling [5] Cotton Industry - On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.03%, closing at 64.93 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract increased by 1.34%, closing at 14,760 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest increased by 19,206 contracts to 837,200 contracts [7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is 15,610 CNY/ton, up 245 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - Internationally, geopolitical disturbances are prevalent, and the US CPI data did not exceed expectations, causing the dollar index to rise above 99 [7] - Although US cotton export shipments remain low, the price difference between Zheng cotton and US cotton may provide some support for US cotton prices [7] - In the domestic market, after three consecutive declines, Zheng cotton saw an increase in open interest, indicating some buying interest from textile enterprises [7] - There are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among textile enterprises, with attention on pre-holiday replenishment actions [7] - Short-term outlook for Zheng cotton suggests potential fluctuations, while medium to long-term policies may provide upward price potential [7]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from January 12 - 16, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean meal futures are in a volatile stage. The global soybean supply is generally abundant. Domestic port soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are high, and pig farming is continuously loss - making, suppressing feed demand and prices. However, the decline in domestic oil - mill operating rates, suspension of imported soybean auctions, and local shutdown expectations have caused concerns about short - term supply, and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations are rising, providing support for the market. It is expected that the soybean meal futures price will maintain a volatile pattern. Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and arrival schedules [6] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2700 - 2800 [9] - This week's strategy advice: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend, with bearish sentiment in terms of funds. The M2605 contract is expected to be in a weak - volatile stage in the short term, with an expected trading range of 2730 - 2850 [10] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean meal weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][23][26] Group 3: Soybean Oil Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range volatile stage. The global soybean supply is abundant, and the South American harvest is suppressing costs. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher year - on - year, and pre - festival stocking demand is weak. However, due to delayed soybean arrivals and slower crushing rhythms, domestic oil mills have a strong willingness to hold prices, and there is rigid demand on the demand side. Under the game of long and short forces, the soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile stage. Key factors to watch are domestic procurement rhythm changes, US bio - diesel progress, and South American weather [30] Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract was expected to continue the volatile trend in the short term. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with bullish sentiment in terms of funds. The Y2605 contract is expected to be in a volatile - bullish stage in the short term [33] Relevant Data - Data includes soybean oil weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [42][47][50]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE cotton futures prices experienced fluctuations, with a slight decline observed on December 31, 2023, closing at 64.26 cents per pound, down 0.06% from the opening price [1] Cotton Futures Market Review - On December 30, 2023, ICE cotton futures opened at 64.35 cents per pound, reached a high of 64.80 cents, and closed at 64.25 cents, reflecting a decrease of 0.25% [1] Cotton Market News - As of December 26, 2023, the inventory of ICE deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts stood at 11,600 bales, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - On December 30, 2023, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 9,185 cotton futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 338 receipts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The average import cotton price (M index) on December 30, 2023, was 72.75 cents per pound, down by 0.14 cents from December 29, 2023, with the 1% tariff import cost (excluding port fees) at 12,514 yuan per ton and the sliding scale tariff import cost at 13,604 yuan per ton [1] - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B index) was 15,500 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1] - The price of Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong for 3128B grade was 15,605 yuan per ton, an increase of 105 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1] - The national cotton basis index (CNCottonJ CF2605) was reported at 917 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan from December 29, 2023 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly improved recently, and prices have seen a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, lacking support for price rebounds. Prices may fluctuate before the New Year's Day holiday, and attention should be paid to margin rule adjustments [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated and closed higher, and the night session continued the fluctuating trend. In the spot market, coking coal prices in various regions were weakly stable. In the coke segment, steel mills in the Hebei region recently initiated the 4th round of price cuts for coke, to be implemented starting from January 1st [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coke enterprises started to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak, and mine inventories continued to accumulate. Last week, the raw coal production of coking coal mines decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 42,000 tons and 101,000 tons respectively. In the import aspect, the average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu last week was 194,400 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 137,800 tons year - on - year. The customs clearance volume declined significantly in the second half of the week, and the current inventory in the port supervision area is at a relatively high level. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports were closed on December 29th for Mongolia's National Liberation and Independence Day and resumed customs clearance on December 30th; they will be closed again on January 1st for New Year's Day and resume on January 2nd [2] - **Demand**: Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 2.2658 million tons, a slight increase of 300 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 12,900 tons year - on - year. It is expected to maintain this level in the short term [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be in a sideways trend, with the M2605 contract expected to fluctuate between 2,700 and 2,800 in the short - term [6][10] - The soybean oil futures price is expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend, and the Y2605 contract may be in a weak sideways trend in the short - term [30][33] Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean meal main contract is in a sideways phase. High supply pressure is formed by the high level of oil mill operation and soybean meal inventory, while the high cost of imported soybeans and the repair of crushing profit support the price [6] - Key factors to watch include inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend with a relatively bullish capital situation. The M2605 contract was expected to be in a short - term sideways trend, with an expected operating range of 2,700 - 2,850 [9] - This week, the soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend with a slightly bearish capital situation. The M2605 contract is expected to continue the sideways trend, with an expected operating range of 2,700 - 2,800 [10] 3. Related Data - The data involves soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [19][23][26] Soybean Oil Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range sideways phase. Although the domestic soybean oil production has decreased month - on - month recently, the inventory is still relatively high, and the demand is weak. The expected supply shortage in February - March and the cost of imported soybeans limit the downward space [30] - Key factors to watch include changes in domestic procurement rhythm, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend with a slightly bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may be in an interval sideways phase in the short - term [33] - This week, the soybean oil futures price is in a downward trend with a slightly bearish capital situation. The Y2605 contract may be in a weak sideways phase in the short - term [33] 3. Related Data - The data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium [43][47][50]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal futures, the price is expected to be in a volatile trend due to the combination of tightening near - term supply and high inventory, strong South American harvest expectations, and weak feed consumption [6]. - For the soybean oil futures, the price is predicted to continue a volatile trend considering high domestic inventory, strong international supply expectations, weak demand, and cost support and supply concerns [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a volatile stage [6]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 49th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.0558 million tons, the startup rate was 56.55%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons. Near - term supply is expected to tighten, but the inventory is still high year - on - year, South American harvest expectations are strengthening, and feed consumption is restricted by breeding losses [6]. - Mid - line strategy advice: Pay attention to inventory depletion progress, South American weather, and breeding demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend with a slightly bearish fund situation. The M2605 was expected to be in a slightly weak volatile stage, with an expected operating range of 2780 - 2880 [9]. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend with a bullish fund situation. The M2605 is expected to be in a volatile stage, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2850 [10]. 3.1.3 Variety Diagnosis - The main force is relatively bullish, with a multi - empty flow of 71.3; the main funds are slightly outflowing with a fund energy of - 33.4; and the multi - empty divergence is 90.2, indicating a high risk of market reversal [14]. 3.1.4 Related Data - The report mentions soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, but no specific data values are provided [20][24][27] 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a volatile stage [33]. - Trend judgment logic: In the 49th week, the actual output of soybean oil from 125 oil mills was 39,060 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.163 million tons. Supply is expected to be loose, but cost support and supply concerns provide price resilience. Demand is weak [33]. - Mid - line strategy advice: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [33]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways trend with a bullish fund situation. The Y2601 was expected to continue a slightly strong volatile trend [36]. - This week's strategy advice: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways trend with a slightly bullish fund situation. The Y2601 is expected to be in a range - bound volatile stage [36]. 3.2.3 Related Data - The report mentions soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, but no specific data values are provided [45][51][53]