北京时间12月31日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格区间震荡，今日开盘报64.32美分/磅，现报 64.26美分/磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.35美分/磅，最低下探64.26美分/磅。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.35 64.80 64.20 64.25 -0.25% 【棉花市场消息速递】 洲际交易所（ICE）公布数据显示，截至12月26日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存为11600包，前一交 易日为11600包。 12月30日，郑商所棉花期货仓单9185张，环比上个交易日增加338张。 12月30日，进口棉到港均价（M指数）72.75美分/磅，较29日跌0.14美分/磅，折1%关税进口成本（不含 港杂费）12514元/吨，折滑准税进口成本（不含港杂费）13604元/吨；国内3128棉均价（B指数）15500 元/吨，较29日涨100元/吨。新疆棉山东到厂价3128B级15605元/吨，较29日涨105元/吨；国家棉花基差 指数CNCottonJ（CF2605）917元/吨，较12月29日跌3元/吨。 棉花期货行情回顾： 12月30日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：价格震荡运行 节前注意持仓风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 31 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格震荡收涨，夜盘延续震荡走势。现货方面， 各地焦煤价格弱稳运行；焦炭端，近日河北区域钢厂开始对焦价第 4 轮提 降，计划 1 月 1 日起执行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，上周煤矿存在年底减量动作，焦企开始适量补库，但 市场整体成交依旧乏力，矿端库存继续累积。上周炼焦煤矿原煤产量环比 回落 5.4 万吨，精煤日产量环比回落 1.8 万吨；原煤和精煤分别累库 4.2 万吨和 10.1 万吨。进口端，上周甘其毛都日均通关量 19.44 万吨，环比 前一周下降 1.26 万吨，同比增加 13.78 万吨，后半周通关量下滑明显， 当前口岸监管区库存处于偏高平。 ...

Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2025.12.22-12.26 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第50周油厂大豆实际压榨量203.75万吨，开机率为 56.05%，豆粕库存109.69万吨。南美大豆丰产预期强烈，国内大豆到港 充足，油厂开工与豆粕库存均处高位，形成持续供应压力；同时，下游 饲料企业备货谨慎，养殖端普遍亏损抑制需求，现货市场购销清淡。然 而进口大豆成本偏高及压榨利润修复对价格形成底部支撑。预计豆粕期 货价格将处于震荡走势。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2605短 期内预计处于震荡阶段，预计运行区间：2700-2850。 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面略微偏空。M2605短 期内预计延续震荡趋势，预计运行区间：2700-2800。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

2025.12.15-12.19 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第49周油厂大豆实际压榨量205.58万吨，开机率为 56.55%，豆粕库存116.19万吨。近期国内大豆到港量下降，油厂开机率 回落，部分企业因原料衔接或库存压力停机，令近月供应呈现收紧预期， 对现货价格构成支撑。但豆粕库存同比仍处高位，且南美丰产预期不断 强化，远期供应格局趋于宽松。同时养殖持续亏损制约饲料消费恢复力 度。多空因素交织下，预计豆粕期货价格将处于震荡走势。 2 关注库存去化进度，南美天气，养殖需求。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 品种诊断情况 | 豆粕(m) v < | | --- | | 品种诊断 机构观点 盈利席位 主力资金 : | | 多空流向： 71.3 图 图 图 主力较为偏多 | | 资金能量： -33.4 ■ ■ ■ 主力 ...

12月12日盘中，红枣期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至8915.00元。截止发稿，红枣主力合 约报8940.00元，跌幅3.14%。 红枣期货主力跌超3%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货 红枣短期价格重心开始上抬 一德期货 红枣期价围绕新季收购成本震荡 瑞达期货：红枣短期价格重心开始上抬 新疆主产区灰枣收购进入尾声，整体进度约九成。据Mysteel农产品调研数据统计，截止2025年12月4日 红枣本周36家样本点物理库存在13910吨，较上周增加3062吨，环比增加28.23%，同比增加135.16%， 样本点库存增加。本周，新疆农三师及麦盖提地区红枣收购进度加快，企业与各地客商采购积极性较 高，订单签订量明显增加。销区产品价格同步趋稳，随着下游采购增加，部分持货商试探性小幅调整报 价，后续关注实际走货情况，短期价格重心开始上抬，关注需求提升情况，若实际需求好转，价格反弹 概率加大。 一德期货：红枣期价围绕新季收购成本震荡 新疆产区灰枣收购步入尾声，余货不多好货存翘尾行情，主产区灰枣收货均价参考5.61元/公斤左右， 随着原料成本明朗，内地客商出货试探性提涨，河北市场 ...

近期，PTA期货主力合约价格持续在4600~4800元／吨区间震荡。目前，PTA市场主要矛盾并不突出。 一方面，PTA估值低，下方有支撑。另一方面，PTA供需层面难以形成持续的去库预期，价格上方压力 也较大。 原油市场上下两难 最近几个交易日，油价震荡运行。全球原油库存不断累积，原油市场处于供应压力最大的阶段。不过， 短期地缘因素将继续带来扰动，俄乌和平谈判距离达成一致还有一定距离。总体来看，原油仍将维持拉 锯的震荡格局。 进入12月，终端织造需求进入季节性回落阶段。截至12月5日，江浙加弹综合开工率升至85%，江浙织 机综合开工率升至69%，江浙印染综合开工率基本维持在74%，较11月高点已经明显下移。受终端需求 季节性回落影响，下游补库节奏明显放缓，聚酯工厂库存连续几周出现累积。虽然短期聚酯负荷韧性仍 存，但难以继续提升，预计明年1月以季节性回落为主。届时聚酯对原料刚性需求将减弱，从而会对 PTA价格构成一定压力。 综合以上分析，目前原料端原油上下两难，低位震荡，难以对下游PTA产生方向性指引。从PTA自身基 本面来看，尽管加工费处在低位，但低估值并没有带来明显的供应减量，而需求端逐步进入季节性回落 阶段 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean meal market is under pressure from high domestic inventory and weak demand, with limited upside potential, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the downside, resulting in a continued short - term pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [5]. - The palm oil market is currently dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term, with a "weak reality" and "strong expectation" scenario, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand situation, with high oil refinery operating rates. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing due to breeding losses, and their inventories are sufficient, mainly replenishing on a just - in - time basis. This leads to a negative basis. The high inventory and weak demand in the domestic industry chain limit the rebound space, while cost support and concerns about future supply limit the decline space [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating strongly; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is dominated by Indonesia's tax game in the short - term. Delayed shipments have changed inventory and trade flows. The market is looking forward to whether Indonesia will continue to promote or increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio. If the policy is implemented, it will boost Indonesia's industrial consumption of palm oil, reduce export volume, and support prices [7]. Other Relevant Information - For varieties with night trading sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline between 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise between 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is strong. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [3]. - Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, based on the previous day's night - session closing price [6].

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price will continue to fluctuate. The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [1]. - The prices of fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to be bearish, with Asian low - sulfur market facing supply and demand dilemmas and high - sulfur market supported by stable demand but with sufficient supply [1][3]. - The asphalt price is temporarily viewed bearishly due to abundant market resources, weak downstream demand, and supply decline being less than demand decline [3]. - PX&TA are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to be under pressure with high supply and limited demand growth [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to increased supply and weak overseas demand [5]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with potential supply changes due to Iranian device conditions and port inventory trends [5][6]. - The polyolefin price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with a shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation but with valuation - related factors limiting further decline [6]. - The PVC price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and potential export - market changes [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose 0.2 dollars to 58.69 dollars/barrel (0.34% increase), Brent 1 - month contract rose 0.3 dollars to 63.01 dollars/barrel (0.48% increase), and SC2512 fell 2.8 yuan/barrel to 451.6 yuan/barrel (0.62% decrease). US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels as of November 7, higher than the market expectation. The IEA predicts a large - scale surplus in the global oil market next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 fell 3.71% to 2595 yuan/ton, LU2601 fell 4.41% to 3164 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Asian low - sulfur market has supply and demand issues, while high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In November, production and consumption both declined, with supply decline less than demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.64% to 4700 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 0.03% to 3892 yuan/ton, and PX601 rose 0.92% to 6836 yuan/ton. Some glycol devices are under maintenance. PX&TA are expected to follow the cost side, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 170 yuan/ton to 15390 yuan/ton, NR rose 220 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR rose 50 yuan/ton to 10480 yuan/ton. Rubber supply increased, and overseas demand weakened [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a high level, and Iranian devices may stop in November - December, leading to a potential decline in January arrivals. Port inventory is expected to start de - stocking from mid - December to early January [5][6]. - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a downward trend in profit. It is expected to shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, but valuation factors may limit further decline [6]. - **PVC**: The price oscillated on Thursday. Supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the cancellation of BIS certification may boost exports, but anti - dumping needs attention [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 14, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA report shows that last week, US crude inventory increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of November 7, US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels, and Cushing crude inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels [12]. - The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year, which is equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand and much higher than other forecasts [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 29 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 15 figures showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 10 figures showing the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 2 figures showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [71][72][73]