期 货 研 究 2025 年 05 月 15 日 白糖：国内持续增产 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 18.08 | -0.1 | 59 价差（元/吨） | 174 | -43 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6200 | 20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 104 | 9 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5906 | 53 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 294 | -33 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西压榨进度同比趋缓；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季巴西产量增长 2%；截至 4 月底，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2569 万吨；巴西 3 月出口 185 万吨，同比减少 30.7%。中国 1-3 月常规进口、糖浆和预拌粉进口 大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量 ...

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]