Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the domestic supply has significant pressure with soybean inventories at the highest level in recent years. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, due to the US's tariff threats and no improvement in US soybean imports, prices will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volumes from Indonesia due to increasing biodiesel consumption support the price center of oils. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered when the inventories in consuming and producing areas are not fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand. In the short - term, due to the impact of the trade war on market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [5][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data in the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil at a historical high, a bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, along with the expected high yield in the new season and strong selling hedging pressure, the short - term cotton price is likely to decline [11][12]. - For eggs, after the holiday, there are multiple bearish factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the low point of the rainy season. In the short - term, a bearish strategy for near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, prices may rebound due to stocking demand, and in the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [14][16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the theoretical supply pressure is large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative. The near - term futures premium is being squeezed out. However, considering the early price decline this year, risks before the Spring Festival have been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions in near - term contracts and consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after the spot price stabilizes, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated weakly due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline as the soybean arrival at ports was large and the operating rate during the National Day holiday decreased. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. The IBGE's October monthly report showed that the expected total soybean planting area in Brazil this year is 47.7 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year [2]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, expect range - bound fluctuations [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than in August. Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15%. On Wednesday, domestic oils fluctuated. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of cotton decreased. As of October 10, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, and the weaving mill operating rate was 37.6%, both lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. From October 9 - 12, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased compared to the holiday period but decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: Expect short - term price decline [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased [14]. - **Strategy**: Bearish for near - term contracts in the short - term, potential medium - term rebound, and sell on rebounds in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The demand from secondary fattening and slaughter increased, and the market trading activity was high. The breeding side still intended to raise prices [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in near - term contracts, consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after spot price stabilization, and maintain reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [18].

Report Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the sugar industry [1][9][10] Core View - The sugar market is under pressure due to high yields in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. The overall recommendation is to continue shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter [9][10][11] Summary by Section 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In September, the ICE raw sugar March contract price fell to 16.6 cents per pound, a 2.24% decline. The Zhengzhou sugar January contract price dropped to 5493 yuan per ton, a 1.98% decrease. Various spreads and basis also showed different trends [9] - **Industry News**: In the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 6.94% year - on - year increase in cane crushing to 4597.3 million tons and a 15.72% increase in sugar production to 362.2 million tons. As of October 8, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 83, and the waiting sugar volume rose to 360.81 million tons [9] - **View and Strategy**: The sugar production data from Brazil in the first half of September was bearish but in line with expectations. With the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season starting and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a bearish view is maintained, and shorting on rallies in the fourth quarter is recommended [9] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread was weak, the production - sales area spread fluctuated, the raw - white sugar spread changed little, the raw sugar production advantage expanded slightly, and the high valuation of the futures market was somewhat corrected. The overall recommendation is to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10] - **Trading Strategy**: A single - side shorting on rallies strategy is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 within 3 months. The core driving logic is the large import supply pressure and expected production increase in the new season [11] 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including spot price and basis, spot - to - spot spreads, domestic - foreign spreads, raw - white sugar spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, showing the historical trends of these spreads from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][25] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 [41] - **Imports**: Data on monthly and annual cumulative imports of sugar, syrup, and premixes in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [44] - **Sales**: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [49] - **Inventory**: The monthly industrial inventory in China and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [52] 4. International Market Situation - **Brazilian Central - Southern Production**: Charts show the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region from 21/22 to 25/26 [57] - **Indian Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented [62] - **Thai Production**: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown [65] - **Brazilian Shipment**: Charts show the sugar inventory in Brazil's central - southern region and the sugar volume waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports from 21/22 to 25/26 [68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market is in a state of continuous production increase. The 24/25 and 25/26 domestic sugar production is expected to reach 1115 and 1120 million tons respectively, while consumption is 1580 and 1590 million tons respectively, with an import volume of 500 million tons for both seasons. The global sugar market in the 24/25 season is expected to face a supply shortage of 488 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 18.08 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 6200 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20; the futures main contract price is 5906 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 53. The 59 spread is 174 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 43; the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 9; the mainstream spot basis is 294 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 33 [1]. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower year - on - year. The USDA expects Brazil's sugar production to increase by 2% in the 25/26 season. As of the end of April, India produced 2569 million tons of sugar in the 24/25 season. Brazil exported 185 million tons in March, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to March decreased significantly [1]. Domestic Market - The CAOC estimates that in the 24/25 season, domestic sugar production will be 1115 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 1120 million tons, consumption 1590 million tons, and imports 500 million tons. As of the end of April in the 24/25 season, national sugar production reached 1111 million tons (+115 million tons), cumulative sales were 724 million tons (+150 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. From January to March, China imported 15 million tons of sugar (-105 million tons) [1][2]. International Market - The ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 251 million tons). As of May 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 158 million tons (-100 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of April 30 in the 24/25 season, India produced 2569 million tons of sugar (-577 million tons). As of April 9 in the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1005 million tons (+131 million tons) [2]. Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, with the value range from - 2 to 2, indicating a neutral view [3].

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]