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国投期货:农产品日报-20250501
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-01 01:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Operation ratings for different agricultural products: unclear ratings for "ななな" (soybean No.1), "女女女" (soybean meal), ☆☆☆ for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn; ★☆★ for pig and egg [1] Core Views - Short - term attention should be paid to the supply pattern change of imported soybeans from tight to loose, and also to policy and supply - demand changes [2] - The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term, and its upward momentum will weaken when Brazilian soybean procurement speeds up and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of Chinese third - quarter soybean shipments and palm oil's production increase period [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and investors can pay attention to later long - position opportunities [6] - The corn futures continue to rise, and the market situation may expand after the domestic grain - right conversion is completed [7] - The pig futures are weak, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices as the number and weight of pig slaughter increase [8] - The egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal decline and capacity release [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract significantly reduced positions before the holiday, and the reserve soybeans are still being released. After the May Day holiday, soybean supply will change from tight to loose, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Near the May Day holiday, soybean meal significantly reduced positions. After the holiday, the supply pattern will change, and attention should be paid to the pressure on spot and basis. The soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, soybean oil and palm oil were relatively resistant to decline. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the pressure on soybean oil spot and basis. The prices of the two oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The proportion of soybean meal in feed is expected to decrease. The domestic inventory of rapeseed products has declined, and the downward space of rapeseed meal is limited [6] Corn - Corn futures continue to rise. The port inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream processing capacity has recovered. There are differences among traders, and the market situation may expand [7] Pig - The pig futures are weak, and the 11 - month contract hit a new low. The spot price is stable. The number and weight of pig slaughter are expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline of spot prices [8] Egg - The egg spot price is weak, and the futures price declined before the holiday. After the holiday, the demand will be weak, and the egg price is expected to be weak in the long - term [9]