Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].

华联期货饲料周报 7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况 豆粕短期或震荡偏强 20250622 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 ◆ 单边：建议豆粕2509支撑位参考2850。期权方面，建议可继续持有豆粕虚值看涨期权。 ◆ 套利：暂观望。 ◆ 展望：关注几个点，首先就是美豆产区天气情况；第二看进口大豆到港的情况；第三看国内豆粕的需求情况； 第四看中加和中美贸易关系。总体来看，预计豆菜粕短期震荡偏强为主。 产业链结构 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 ◆ 总的来说，在中美贸易政策不确定性以及美豆主产区或有干旱预期的情况下，预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 美豆方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 南美方面，目前处于巴西豆出口旺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Due to the flood disaster in Argentina and the approaching key weather - affected period in the US soybean market, along with the previous reduction in planting area, the CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate under the game of long - and short - term factors [7]. - With the increase in soybean arrivals and rising inventory, the soybean oil mill operation rate is expected to remain high, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Given the limited short - term demand, the price increase space of soybean meal is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - The soybean oil inventory is expected to rise. Although the flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area may provide short - term support, factors such as crude oil inventory accumulation and weak US soybean oil demand may lead to a weak and fluctuating trend of soybean oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Bean 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose 0.1% to 4172 yuan/ton. The current market has limited remaining grain, and the inventory is lower than in previous years. The price is stable with a slight increase, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see due to weak supply and demand [6]. - **Bean 2**: The main 2509 contract rose 1.45% to 3571 yuan/ton. The flood in Argentina and the approaching key weather period in the US, along with the previous reduction in planting area, support the price. However, weak US export demand and unmet biodiesel policy expectations limit the upside. It is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 1.83% to 2952 yuan/ton. As soybean arrivals increase, inventory rises, and the mill operation rate is high. The downstream demand is limited in the short term, and the price increase space is restricted. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.26% to 7774 yuan/ton. The soybean inventory is at a high level, and the mill operation rate is expected to remain high, so the inventory is expected to rise. The flood in Argentina may provide short - term support, but factors like crude oil inventory and weak US demand may lead to a weak and fluctuating trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Bean 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures prices all rose this week. The 2507 contract of Bean 1 rose 0.1% to 4172 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract of soybean meal rose 1.83% to 2952 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract of soybean oil rose 0.26% to 7774 yuan/ton [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: As of May 23, the 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal was - 51 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 36 yuan/ton, both of which expanded compared to the previous week [31][35]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: As of May 23, the net position of the top 20 in Bean 1 futures decreased by 7338 hands to - 18082 hands, and the warehouse receipts increased by 378 hands to 30136 hands; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures increased by 64511 hands to - 337109 hands, and the warehouse receipts increased by 2025 hands to 38311 hands; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures increased by 5808 hands to - 51771 hands, and the warehouse receipts of the 2505 contract increased by 2232 hands to 14602 hands [40][47][54]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: As of May 23, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin remained at 3980 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 26 yuan/ton to - 214 yuan/ton; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8110 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 56 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [58][68][74]. - **Import Premium and Arrival Cost**: As of May 23, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in June was 78 cents/bu, up 12 cents/bu; that of Argentine soybeans was 2 cents/bu, up 5 cents/bu; that of Brazilian soybeans was 45 cents/bu, up 2 cents/bu. The arrival cost of US soybeans was 4651.21 yuan/ton, up 24.44 yuan/ton; that of South American soybeans was 3723.13 yuan/ton, up 67.09 yuan/ton, and the cost difference decreased by 42.65 yuan/ton to 928.08 yuan/ton [78][82]. 3.4 Weather Conditions - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has weakened compared to last week, but it is worse than the same period last year. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows that the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is higher than normal, and the rainfall is lower than normal [86][92]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - **Supply - Side Forecast**: In May 2025, the expected output of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 11811.5 million tons, a decrease of 72.1 million tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 803.2 million tons, a decrease of 14.5 million tons; the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 16900 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, and the inventory increased by 100 million tons to 3331.2 million tons; the expected output of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 4900 million tons, unchanged from the previous month, and the inventory increased by 10 million tons to 2474.7 million tons [97][102][107]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, faster than the previous week, last year, and the five - year average. As of May 22, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 61%, slower than the same period last year [111]. - **Export Situation**: As of the week of May 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 21.8 million tons, a decrease from the previous week; as of the week of May 15, 2024, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 30.8 million tons, an increase from the previous week. Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2025 is expected to reach a record 1609 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [117][123]. 3.6 Industry Situation - **Domestic Inventory and Operation Rate**: In the 20th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 586.83 million tons, an increase of 51.92 million tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 12.17 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons; the soybean oil inventory in key regions was 65.63 million tons, an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous week. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 20th week was 190.55 million tons, with an operation rate of 53.56%. It is expected that in the 21st week, the operation rate will rise to 63.04%, and the crushing volume will be 224.27 million tons [127][131][135][139]. - **Import and Substitute Situation**: In April 2025, China's soybean imports were 608.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 73.59%. The expected soybean arrival volume in May was 1008.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.86%. As of May 23, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang decreased by 175.4 yuan/ton to - 32.15 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the 7 - month shipment was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The price of palm oil remained flat, the price of rapeseed oil rose, the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The price difference between the three major oils in both the spot and futures markets decreased [145][149][155][161][172][167]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of May 14, the total domestic soybean meal transaction volume was 426400 tons, a decrease of 680000 tons from the previous week; the total soybean oil transaction volume was 77000 tons, a decrease of 34250 tons from the previous week [184]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - **Livestock Market**: As of May 23, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Beijing was 14.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg from the previous week; the price of piglets was 36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.53 yuan/kg. As of May 14, the pig - raising profit was 78.62 yuan/head, an increase of 22.32 yuan/head from the previous week; as of May 23, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, an increase of 0.14 yuan/head from the previous week [189][195]. - **Feed and Demand**: In April 2025, the monthly feed output was 2664 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In March, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms was 504.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.08% and a year - on - year increase of 4.83%; the inventory of commercial pigs was 3544.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%. According to the USDA report, China's domestic soybean consumption in the 2024/25 season was 126.9 billion tons, an increase of 5.1 billion tons from the previous year; the food consumption of soybean oil was 18800 million pounds, an increase of 700 million pounds from the previous year [199][204][208]. 3.8 Option Market Considering the weak and fluctuating trend of soybean meal, it is advisable to buy at - the - money put options [216].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]