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关注中美能否达成协议,豆粕短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].
7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况,豆粕短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:10
华联期货饲料周报 7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况 豆粕短期或震荡偏强 20250622 期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1285号 邓丹 交易咨询号:Z0011401 从业资格号:F0300922 0769-22111252 审核:陈小国 从业资格号:F03100622 交易咨询号:Z0021111 ◆ 单边:建议豆粕2509支撑位参考2850。期权方面,建议可继续持有豆粕虚值看涨期权。 ◆ 套利:暂观望。 ◆ 展望:关注几个点,首先就是美豆产区天气情况;第二看进口大豆到港的情况;第三看国内豆粕的需求情况; 第四看中加和中美贸易关系。总体来看,预计豆菜粕短期震荡偏强为主。 产业链结构 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 ◆ 总的来说,在中美贸易政策不确定性以及美豆主产区或有干旱预期的情况下,预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 美豆方面,未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨,玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨;第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般,堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看,未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 南美方面,目前处于巴西豆出口旺 ...
豆类市场周报-20250523
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 09:35
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.23」 豆类市场周报 研究员 : 张昕 期货从业资格证号 F03109641 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0018457 联系电话:059586778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆一: 来源:瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾:本周豆一主力2507合约上涨,收涨0.1%,报收4172元/吨。 u 行情展望:国产大豆方面,当前市场余粮有限,整体库存水平显著低于历年同期,导致各主要产区大 豆价格呈现稳中有升的走势。与此同时,下游市场采购积极性不高,国家储备大豆的竞拍投放数量明 显减少,下游加工企业采购量亦有所下降。加之近期气温回升,豆制品终端消费需求表现平淡,整体 市场处于供需两弱格局。在此背景下,大豆价格展现出一定的抗跌性,维持相对坚挺。 u 策略建议:供需双弱,观望为主。 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆二: 来源:瑞达期货研究院 4 u 行情回顾:本周豆二主力2509合约上涨,收涨1.45%,收报3571元/吨。 u 行情展望:近期,阿根廷洪 ...
豆类市场周报-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]