2026 年 2 月 27 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4702 | +28（+0.60%） | 4720 +28（+0.60%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2834 | +10（+0.35%） | -3（-0.11%） 2830 | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） | 1163 | -2.25（-0.19%） | | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） | 321.3 | -0.5（-0.16%） | na | | | 主要产区 | 3120～3200， | 豆粕 （43%） 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2605+380， | 持平； 3月M2605+300； 4 | | | | 月M2605+200； | 4月16日-4月30日M ...

Core Insights - The latest export report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that for the week ending November 27, U.S. soybean export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.321 million tons the previous week [1] - For the 2026/27 marketing year, net sales were 10,000 tons, an increase from zero tons the prior week [1] - During the same week, U.S. soybean export shipments totaled 804,000 tons, compared to 763,000 tons the week before [1]

Core Insights - Soybean prices are experiencing midday losses, with the national average cash bean price reported at $10.00 1/2, down 6 cents from previous levels [1] - The USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China, indicating ongoing demand from this key market [1] Export Data - Export inspections data revealed soybean shipments of 795,661 MT for the week ending December 11, marking a 22.4% decrease from the previous week and a 59.6% decline year-over-year [2] - China was the leading destination for soybean exports, receiving 202,043 MT, followed by Germany with 136,515 MT and Vietnam with 80,425 MT [2] - Cumulative marketing year shipments have reached 13.702 MMT, reflecting a 46.3% year-over-year decline [2] Sales Reports - The Export Sales report indicated total sales of 2.232 MMT for the week of November 20, with 2.14 MMT sold to China, contributing to a total of 4.2 MMT in known sales to China [3] - Meal sales were recorded at 150,951 MT, falling within the lower half of the estimated range of 100,000-450,000 MT, while soybean oil sales increased to 7,540 MT, also on the lower end of estimates [4] Crushing and Stocks - NOPA data showed that members crushed 216.04 million bushels of soybeans in November, a 5.1% decrease from October's record but still 11.83% higher than the previous year [5] - Soybean oil stocks rose by 15.95% from the end of October to 1.513 billion lbs, which is 39.58% larger year-over-year [5] Crop Status - AgRural reported that the Brazilian soybean crop is 97% planted as of Thursday, indicating progress in the planting season [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the increase in U.S. soybean export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year, with net sales reaching 696,000 tons, up from 511,000 tons the previous week [1] - For the 2026/27 marketing year, there were no net sales reported, compared to 4,000 tons the prior week [1] - The total soybean export shipments for the week amounted to 1,553,000 tons, significantly higher than the 928,000 tons shipped the week before [1]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core View**: The report provides overnight market information on the export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, as well as the situation of palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia. It also shows the spot prices of related products. Overnight Market Information - The USDA will release the export sales report for the week ending October 30 at 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Analysts estimate that US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 600,000 - 2,000,000 tons, US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 200,000 - 450,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [1] - A survey shows that Malaysia's November palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high due to slow exports and record - high production in November. The estimated inventory is 2.66 million tons, a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month but still the highest November production on record. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Adverse weather restricts production growth. The EC weather model predicts drier weather in the next 15 days, but there are uncertainties in the medium - to - long - term weather patterns [1] - The 2025/26 Indonesian palm oil production forecast is raised to 51.2 million tons, a less than 1% increase from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 46.2 - 56.2 million tons. However, there are flood risks [1] Spot Prices - The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [2]

Market Overview - Soybeans are showing strength with gains of 4 to 6 cents, following a holiday-shortened week where contracts closed 7 to 10 cents higher [1] - Open interest decreased by 3,169 contracts, with January contracts dropping by 7,286 contracts [1] - The national average cash bean price is reported at $10.57 1/2, down 7 cents [1] Export Data - USDA reported soybean export shipments at 920,194 MT (33.81 million bushels) for the week ending November 27, which is 56.4% lower than the same week in 2024 but up 13.8% from the previous week [2] - Italy was the top destination for soybean exports with 201,766 MT, followed by Egypt with 126,925 MT and Mexico with 83,620 MT [2] - Cumulative marketing year exports for 2025/26 are at 11.87 MMT (436.27 million bushels), which is 45.6% below the same period last year [2] Sales Data - USDA's Export Sales data for the week ending October 23 indicated soybean sales of 1.45 MMT, which is 30.8% higher than the previous week but 37.1% lower than last year [3] - Soybean meal sales for the same week were reported at 640,021 MT, exceeding trade expectations of 50,000-500,000 MT [3] - Bean oil sales were recorded at 29,820 MT, also surpassing estimates of 5,000 to 25,000 MT [3] Futures Market - January 26 Soybeans closed at $11.28, down 9 3/4 cents, while currently up 5 ¼ cents [4] - Nearby cash price for soybeans is $10.57 1/2, down 7 cents [4] - March 26 Soybeans closed at $11.38, down 8 cents, and May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.47 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].