2026 年 2 月 27 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4702 | +28（+0.60%） | 4720 +28（+0.60%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2834 | +10（+0.35%） | -3（-0.11%） 2830 | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） | 1163 | -2.25（-0.19%） | | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） | 321.3 | -0.5（-0.16%） | na | | | 主要产区 | 3120～3200， | 豆粕 （43%） 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2605+380， | 持平； 3月M2605+300； 4 | | | | 月M2605+200； | 4月16日-4月30日M ...

摘要： 单边上：短期内波动为主，参考区间：菜油05（8700-9200），菜粕05（2100-2300）。目前来看2月市 场博弈的焦点在于年前澳菜籽的入榨情况，以及年后商业澳菜籽买船开放的可能性、加菜籽最早装运中 国以及入榨的时间节点。总的来说菜系油粕供应边际转宽松趋势较难扭转，预期差更有可能出现在压榨 和到港节奏。从这一角度来说，阶段性不看好菜系油粕大幅反弹上行的可能性。其中菜油受益于生物燃 料需求题材，或相对具备支撑，但在油脂品种间价差仍相对偏弱。菜粕方面最大悬念集中在保税区库存 的流出压力，预计维持高波动特征。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理 涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年1月25日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 套利上：仍倾向于逢低做多菜系油粕比。考虑到经贸题材缓和之后，2026 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On December 11, the futures prices of beans and oils rose first and then fell. The price of soybean No.1 futures increased by over 1%, and the price rebounded above multiple moving - averages with an increase of 7,000 lots in positions. The price of soybean No.2 futures rose by over 2%, continuing the previous day's rebound trend with little change in funds. The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, and funds continued to shift to the far - month 05 contract with a slight outflow of funds. The price of rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, showing a weak overall pattern with an increase of 11,000 lots in positions. The price of oil futures rose and then fell. The price of soybean oil futures was pressured by the 10 - day moving average with an increase of 25,000 lots in positions. The price of palm oil futures fluctuated strongly, pressured by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed below the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 24,000 lots in positions. The price of rapeseed oil futures increased by over 1.5%, pressured by the 30 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The recent soybean market has continued the "near - strong and far - weak" differentiation pattern. The core driver lies in the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the export sales report became a key variable. However, the tariff cut in Argentina squeezed the market share of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest in Brazil in South America led to a downward shift in the support of far - month import costs. The domestic market showed a structural contradiction: the operating rate of oil mills declined periodically, and the 100% transaction of soybean auctions confirmed the short - term replenishment demand. The arrival of imported soybeans in December may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continued to sell off. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance to - 150 yuan/ton. In the short term, soybean meal 2605 continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern continued [6]. - The oil market showed a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal. The core driver was the dual effects of short - covering and technical repair needs. Firstly, after the previous continuous decline of rapeseed oil, short - sellers took profits, triggering a short - squeeze, but the market's expectations for state purchases and anti - dumping tax rate adjustments have not been confirmed, and the sustainability is questionable. Secondly, palm oil followed the rise weakly. Driven by the rebound of BMD, the export decline in Malaysia in the first ten days of December widened, and the output increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still put pressure on the palm oil price. Finally, soybean oil fluctuated weakly. On the one hand, the state's sale of soybeans supplemented the supply, and on the other hand, the cost support of US soybeans in the outer market weakened. Currently, the high pressure of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils at 2.43 million tons still exists. The short - term market is a technical repair under the disturbance of news. Before the inventory inflection point of palm oil arrives and the rapeseed oil policy is implemented, the oscillation center of the oil sector remains unchanged, and the risk of a rise and then fall should still be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - A weather report on Wednesday showed that the initial forecast for March - May 2026 indicated that the La Nina phenomenon would completely dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the US, crops in the Midwest/Plains faced a higher risk of drought, and Russia also faced drought risks. There might be excessive precipitation or spring floods in the North China Plain and Indonesia. In the next 5 days, the northern plains, Midwest, and northeastern regions of the US would face a cold snap risk, while the western temperatures would remain high. Heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in the northwest, and snowfall would occur in the northern plains/Midwest and northeastern regions, with other areas remaining dry. In South America, the Pampas region in Argentina had lower temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall, but only in the southern part; Brazil had more rainfall and lower temperatures. In Europe, most regions would have higher - than - average temperatures in the next week, and most regions except the UK, Spain, and Scandinavia would have lower - than - normal precipitation. In Asia, most regions would have temperatures close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, and the weather conditions in the eastern regions varied. It was expected that Southeast Asia and East Asia would have higher - than - normal precipitation [9]. - After being hit by a year of low prices, soaring costs, and a sharp decline in exports, American farmers welcomed President Trump's newly announced $12 billion agricultural aid plan but generally believed that this amount was only a "lifeline" and far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of $34 - 44 billion this year. Farmers' income was under pressure due to multiple factors. The prices of staple grains such as corn, soybeans, and wheat had been low for a long time, while input costs such as labor, fertilizers, and seeds continued to rise, greatly eroding profit margins. Trump's trade policies led to disputes that blocked the main US export markets, and soybeans were particularly hard - hit. China suspended all US soybean imports from May to November, causing American farmers to lose billions of dollars in export orders during the peak export season. Analysts believed that this part of the demand could not be recovered, and federal aid was expected to cover only a quarter of the soybean losses. From a macro perspective, the overall US agricultural economy was weak, and it was generally expected to continue to deteriorate in 2026. Less than half of the farmers were expected to make a profit next year, and cash - flow shortages, insufficient earnings, and inflation pressure were the three major concerns of the loan industry [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday that private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Since October 30, the USDA has confirmed sales of 2.984 million tons of soybeans to China through daily export reports. Chinese and US leaders met in South Korea on October 30 and reached an agreement to ease trade conflicts [11]. - The monthly crushing data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high and was higher than market expectations. In October 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons (equivalent to 237 million bushels), 15.6% higher than the 6.15 million short tons (250 million bushels) in September and 9.9% higher than the 6.47 million short tons (215.8 million bushels) in October 2024. Before the report was released, analysts' expected value was 7.027 million short tons (equivalent to 234.2 million bushels), with a forecast range from 229.9 million to 242.5 million bushels and a median of 233.3 million bushels. Due to the US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the crushing data for September and October were delayed, and the September data were re - issued on Wednesday. Previously, analysts predicted that the September soybean crushing volume would be 205.4 million bushels. In the past two years, the US soybean crushing industry has undergone significant capacity expansion, mainly driven by the growing demand for biofuels, especially the strong growth in the demand for soybean oil in the renewable diesel industry. Driven by this, the US soybean crushing volume has continued to rise, reaching record highs several times this year. With the successive commissioning of new capacities and the listing of new soybean supplies, October became an important window for crushing enterprises to increase their operating rates. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) had previously announced that its member companies' soybean crushing volume in October reached 227.6 million bushels, also setting a historical high [12]. Price and Profit Data - The price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of soybeans was 4,014 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang (≥43%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal was 3,132 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean oil was 8,559 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the average price of palm oil was 8,753 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,118 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [13]. - The oil mill crushing profit data showed that in Heilongjiang (domestic), with soybeans at 3,940 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,270 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,660 yuan/ton, the profit was 121.15 yuan. In Dalian (domestic), with soybeans at 4,020 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 81.60 yuan. In Dalian (imported), with soybeans at 3,980 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 20.10 yuan, etc. [14] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润 (the description seems to be in Chinese and might be "soybean on - disk crushing profit"), soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [15][17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market has near - term supply pressure reduction due to less near - month rapeseed arrivals and increased seasonal aquaculture demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues, with a bullish bias and high volatility [2]. - The rapeseed oil market faces short - term consumption off - season and ample supply, but low oil mill operation rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market shows a narrow - range oscillation and suggests a bullish approach [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9891 yuan/ton (up 1), rapeseed meal at 2547 yuan/ton (up 4), ICE rapeseed at 665 CAD/ton (up 3.2), and domestic rapeseed at 4843 yuan/ton (down 29) [2]. - Spreads and positions: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 174 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was 74 yuan/ton (unchanged). Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 291283 hands (down 5), rapeseed meal were 422516 hands (up 1488). Rapeseed oil net long positions of top 20 were 6365 hands (down 98), rapeseed meal were - 4882 hands (up 3873) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 (unchanged), rapeseed meal were 8066 (down 187) [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9950 yuan/ton (up 50), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2580 yuan/ton (up 40), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), imported rapeseed cost was 8346.97 yuan/ton (up 66.31) [2]. - Ratios and spreads: The oil - meal ratio was 3.84 (up 0.05), rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 60 yuan/ton (down 49), rapeseed meal main - contract basis was 33 yuan/ton (up 36), rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1270 yuan/ton (up 20), rapeseed - palm oil spread was 410 yuan/ton (up 130), soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 480 yuan/ton (down 30) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: Global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), domestic rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons (unchanged). Rapeseed imports were 17.6 million tons (down 0.85 million tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 million tons (up 4 million tons), rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 million tons (up 7.56 million tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Rapeseed inventory at oil mills was 15 million tons (unchanged), imported rapeseed weekly operation rate was 12.79% (up 0.85%), imported rapeseed crushing profit was 613 yuan/ton (down 18) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons (down 0.55 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons (down 0.72 million tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons (up 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons (up 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons (up 0.29 million tons), rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons (up 0.52 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: Feed production was 2937.7 million tons (up 175.6 million tons), edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 million tons (up 41.8 million tons), and catering revenue was 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatility: Rapeseed meal call option implied volatility was 20.89% (up 0.18%), put option implied volatility was 0.13% (up 0.07%), 60 - day historical volatility was 20.89% (up 0.11%), 20 - day historical volatility was 22.11% (up 0.07%). Rapeseed oil call option implied volatility was 14.39% (up 0.29%), put option implied volatility was 0.49% (up 0.3%), 60 - day historical volatility was 14.99% (up 0.13%), 20 - day historical volatility was 19.87% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose on August 22 due to rising soybean oil prices. The November contract closed 3.20 CAD higher at 666.50 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 3.10 CAD to 677.50 CAD/ton [2]. - Pro Farmer predicted US soybean average yield at a record - high 53.0 bushels/acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, similar to USDA forecasts [2]. - AAFC estimated Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production at 20.1 million tons (up 12.9% from July), and ending stocks at 2.2 million tons (doubled from last month) [2]. - The US EPA's new decision on small refinery biofuel exemptions may boost large - refinery biofuel demand and benefit US soybean oil [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by strong domestic demand and favorable supply reports, is expected to stabilize above 1000 cents per bushel, with potential for further increases [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The July soybean crush volume in the U.S. reached 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels, indicating robust domestic demand [1] - The increase in soybean demand is primarily attributed to rising U.S. soybean oil consumption, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The favorable demand conditions are supported by the recent comments from Trump urging China to purchase U.S. soybeans, alongside the positive supply-demand report [1] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Despite external support for soybean meal costs, domestic demand remains weak, with daily demand peaking at the beginning of August primarily driven by forward contracts for next year [1] - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume for soybean meal in August was 27.5 thousand tons, reflecting a lack of significant spot demand [1] - It is anticipated that the national average price for soybean meal will fluctuate between 3100 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton by the end of August [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures prices have reached a new phase high, driven by policy incentives that boost biofuel demand, raising questions about the sustainability of future price increases [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures have recently hit a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The increase in palm oil prices is attributed to favorable policies that enhance the demand for biofuels [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the upward trend in prices can be maintained in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, supported by the China-US tariff joint statement and the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, breaking through the trading range since mid - April. The Malaysian palm oil opened higher due to the strong external market but was later suppressed by the unexpectedly high inventory in the April data released by MPOB [6]. - Domestically, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans speeds up, the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising month - on - month with high supply pressure later. The short - term price of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic palm oil inventory continues to decline, and the price will mainly follow the import cost. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to rise, but with uncertain medium - to - long - term imported rapeseed supply and the strong recent trend of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%. The estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The soybean output is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The US soybean crushing volume is expected to be 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, and the export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output reaches a record 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% due to Brazil's increased production. The global crushing volume is expected to increase by 3.3% to a record 366.46 million tons, led by Chinese demand. The global export is 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, with Brazil's share rising. The ending inventory is estimated to be 124.3 million tons, slightly higher than the previous year [2]. - In April, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 19.37% month - on - month to 1.866 million tons, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month to 1.686 million tons, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month to 1.102 million tons [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's edible vegetable oil production is predicted to be 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the previous year. Among them, soybean oil production is 17.16 million tons and rapeseed oil production is 7.76 million tons, decreasing by 140,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively due to the decline in soybean and rapeseed imports. Peanut oil production is 4 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons due to better planting benefits and increased policy support. The predicted consumption of edible vegetable oil is the same as the previous year [3][4]. Fundamental Data Charts No information provided. Views and Strategies - International: CBOT soybeans rose due to positive factors, and Malaysian palm oil's rise was suppressed by high inventory [6]. - Domestic: The supply pressure of domestic soybean oil is increasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range; the domestic palm oil price follows the import cost; domestic rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, with a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for all these products and a medium - term view of "oscillating" [6][7][8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [6][7] - **Driving Factors**: CBOT soybean futures declined for two consecutive days due to concerns about international trade tensions and falling soybean oil futures. Domestic soybean meal spot prices in North and Northeast China stabilized, and the decline of soybean meal futures slowed. The average arrival volume of imported soybeans from May to July is large, and the market focuses on oil mill operation plans,提货 rhythms, and downstream inventory procurement dynamics. The overall price of soybean products is under pressure as supply expectations improve [6] - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and备货 demand [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7][8] - **Driving Factors**: Under the double pressure of rising inventory and weak demand, Malaysian palm oil prices are continuously under pressure. The decline in international oil prices also casts a shadow over the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. Both Malaysian and domestic palm oil inventories are expected to rise, and the short - term palm oil futures price lacks obvious drivers, following the trend in the oil and fat sector passively, with a bearish market sentiment [8] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7] Soybean Oil (2509) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7] - **Core Logic**: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel备货 demand [7]