菜籽系产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9891 | 1 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2547 | 4 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 291283 | -5 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) 6998 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 422516 | 1488 | | | | 174 | | 74 | 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 6365 | -98 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -4882 | 3873 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3487 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 8066 | -187 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 665 | 3.2 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in U.S. soybean futures prices, driven by strong domestic demand and favorable supply reports, is expected to stabilize above 1000 cents per bushel, with potential for further increases [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - The July soybean crush volume in the U.S. reached 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels, indicating robust domestic demand [1] - The increase in soybean demand is primarily attributed to rising U.S. soybean oil consumption, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The favorable demand conditions are supported by the recent comments from Trump urging China to purchase U.S. soybeans, alongside the positive supply-demand report [1] Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Despite external support for soybean meal costs, domestic demand remains weak, with daily demand peaking at the beginning of August primarily driven by forward contracts for next year [1] - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume for soybean meal in August was 27.5 thousand tons, reflecting a lack of significant spot demand [1] - It is anticipated that the national average price for soybean meal will fluctuate between 3100 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton by the end of August [1]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures prices have reached a new phase high, driven by policy incentives that boost biofuel demand, raising questions about the sustainability of future price increases [1] Group 1 - Palm oil futures have recently hit a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The increase in palm oil prices is attributed to favorable policies that enhance the demand for biofuels [1] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the upward trend in prices can be maintained in the future [1]

表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 油脂：马棕油库存超预期 油脂高开低走 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7792.00 | 7814.00 | -22.00 | -0.28% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7954.00 | 8024.00 | -70.00 | -0.87% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 9374.00 | 9378.00 | -4.00 | -0.04% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 5月12日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1052.25 | 17.75 | 1.69% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 5月12日 | 美分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, with a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for all these products and a medium - term view of "oscillating" [6][7][8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [6][7] - **Driving Factors**: CBOT soybean futures declined for two consecutive days due to concerns about international trade tensions and falling soybean oil futures. Domestic soybean meal spot prices in North and Northeast China stabilized, and the decline of soybean meal futures slowed. The average arrival volume of imported soybeans from May to July is large, and the market focuses on oil mill operation plans,提货 rhythms, and downstream inventory procurement dynamics. The overall price of soybean products is under pressure as supply expectations improve [6] - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and备货 demand [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7][8] - **Driving Factors**: Under the double pressure of rising inventory and weak demand, Malaysian palm oil prices are continuously under pressure. The decline in international oil prices also casts a shadow over the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. Both Malaysian and domestic palm oil inventories are expected to rise, and the short - term palm oil futures price lacks obvious drivers, following the trend in the oil and fat sector passively, with a bearish market sentiment [8] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7] Soybean Oil (2509) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7] - **Core Logic**: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel备货 demand [7]