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多重利好驱动,油脂油料偏强运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].
美国农业部期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250729
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals showed weak and volatile trends. The overall growth of US soybeans is good, but trade uncertainties make the export outlook of US soybeans worrying, causing the futures price of US soybeans to decline. Considering trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in Q4, and the room for further decline in soybean meal prices is limited [2]. - For oils, night - session oils closed up with volatility. The latest fundamental data from Indonesia is positive, and the head of the Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy Bureau of the Indonesian Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in H2 2025, which will boost palm oil export demand and support palm oil prices. In Malaysia, the latest production and export data are negative in the short - term, but with the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8120, 8946, and 9406 respectively, with changes of - 24, 10, and - 51 and percentage changes of - 0.29%, 0.11%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2990, 2647, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 31, - 23, and 26 and percentage changes of - 1.03%, - 0.86%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For spreads like Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1, the current values are 44, 14, and 49 respectively, compared with previous values of 40, 8, and 56. For ratios - spreads such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09, the current values are - 51, 267, and 330 respectively, compared with previous values of - 38, 270, and 346 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 1012 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 279 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, - 10, 0, and - 2 and percentage changes of 0.33%, - 1.00%, 0.09%, and - 0.82% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of domestic spot products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 8260, 8310, and 9070 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.36%, - 0.36%, and - 0.33%. For spot products like Nantong soybean meal, Dongguan soybean meal, and Nantong rapeseed meal, the current prices are 2870, 2890, and 2560 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.70%, and - 0.78% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 140, 190, and 124 respectively. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil are - 670 and 1350 respectively [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, and near - month Brazilian soybeans are - 437, - 271, and - 165 respectively, compared with previous values of - 526, - 249, and - 76 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipt values for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 21,495, 0, and 3,487 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409,714 tons, compared with 377,020 tons (revised) in the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with market expectations [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250721
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic supply glut will still pressure the upside space of protein meal, but it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short - term due to import cost support. For oils and fats, the fundamentals have limited changes, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties were 8072, 8796, etc. with corresponding price changes and percentage changes. For example, soybean oil rose 30 with a 0.37% increase, and palm oil rose 74 with a 0.85% increase. There were also changes in spreads and ratios. [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures such as BMD palm oil were 4158, with price changes and percentage changes. For example, BMD palm oil rose 49 with a 1.19% increase. [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices of domestic products like Tianjin first - grade soybean oil were 8230, with corresponding percentage changes. For example, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil rose 0.24%. There were also data on spot basis and spot spreads. [1] Import and Profit - The current values of import profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 417, - 248, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc. were 22,131, 854, etc., with changes compared to the previous values. [1] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 3.5% compared to the same period last month according to ITS data. The Canadian rapeseed crop had different excellent - good rates in different provinces. [2] Comments and Strategies - **Protein Meal**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, reducing the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, and Indonesia will purchase 4.5 billion US dollars of US agricultural products. The improvement of Sino - US trade relations is expected to increase, and the US soybean price is supported by the biodiesel policy. The domestic supply is loose, but the continuous meal is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [2] - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report this month was neutral to bearish, but the high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports increased sharply, especially palm oil imports which increased by 60% in June. Palm oil prices are expected to be supported, and the overall oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. [2]
油脂油料早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:53
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on US soybean and soybean meal exports, as well as adjustments to Brazil's soybean export, production, and processing estimates, and changes in Malaysia's palm oil export tax [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending on the 10th, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 801,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year soybean export sales had a net increase of 271,900 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week and a 39% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean export sales had a net increase of 529,600 tons. US soybean export shipments were 276,400 tons, a 30% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 300,600 tons, and next - market - year new soybean sales were 529,800 tons [1]. - For the week ending on the 10th, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 530,500 tons as expected. Current - market - year soybean meal export sales had a net increase of 356,500 tons, a 72% increase from the previous week and an 86% increase from the four - week average. Next - market - year soybean meal export sales had a net increase of 174,000 tons. US soybean meal export shipments were 343,200 tons, a 17% increase from the previous week and a 26% increase from the four - week average. Current - market - year new soybean meal sales were 410,400 tons, and next - market - year new soybean meal sales were 179,800 tons [1]. Brazil's Soybean Estimates - Abiove raised Brazil's 2024/25 soybean export estimate from 108.2 million tons to 109 million tons, maintained the production estimate at 169.7 million tons, and increased the soybean crushing estimate from 57.5 million tons to 57.8 million tons. The increase in the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio in diesel boosted the outlook for Brazil's soybean processing volume to a record high. The 2024/25 soybean meal export estimate was maintained at 23.6 million tons, the soybean oil export estimate was lowered from 1.4 million tons to 1.35 million tons, the soybean oil production estimate was raised from 11.45 million tons to 11.6 million tons, and the soybean meal production estimate was increased from 44.1 million tons to 44.5 million tons [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia raised its monthly reference price for crude palm oil, increasing the export tax to 9%. The monthly reference price was 3,864.12 Malaysian ringgit ($910.28) per ton, compared to 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton with an 8.5% export tax previously [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from July 11 to July 17, 2025, are presented. For example, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased from 2,810 to 2,860, and the price of rapeseed meal in Guangdong increased from 2,520 to 2,600 [2]. Others - The report also mentions protein meal basis [3], grease basis [6], and grease and oilseed futures price spreads [7] but does not provide detailed data.
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250716
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the July USDA report on soybeans is neutral to bearish, with US soybean futures prices breaking down after the report. However, the biodiesel policy will support prices, and US soybeans are expected to trade in a range. In China, the ample supply will limit the upside, and Dalian soybean meal is also expected to trade sideways [3]. - The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market, but high - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. With strong demand, especially from India, palm oil prices are expected to be supported. The fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, and the overall market is expected to remain volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8012 for soybean oil, 8708 for palm oil, 9404 for rapeseed oil, 2978 for soybean meal, 2651 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 18, - 40, - 20, - 14, 133, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, - 0.46%, - 3.15%, - 0.47%, 5.28%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., are provided, along with their previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4109 for BMD palm oil (in ringgit per ton), 1003 for CBOT soybeans (in cents per bushel), 54 for CBOT soybean oil (in cents per pound), and 280 for CBOT soybean meal (in dollars per ton). The price changes were - 6, - 5, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.15%, - 0.47%, 0.76%, and - 0.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions, along with their percentage changes, are provided. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8210 with a 0.24% change [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current and previous values of spot basis and spreads for different products are given, such as the spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, etc., and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, etc. [1]. Import and Crush Profit - The current and previous values of import and crush profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, etc., are presented [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are provided [1][2]. Industry Information - **Brazil Exports**: Brazil's estimated exports in July are 1219 million tons of soybeans, 225 million tons of soybean meal, and 460 million tons of corn, which are higher than previous estimates [3]. - **Malaysia Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621770 tons, a 6.16% decrease from the same period last month. According to Amspec, the exports were 574121 tons, a 5.29% decrease [3]. - **USDA Report on Soybeans**: The USDA reduced the estimated planted and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season, while keeping the yield per acre unchanged. The production estimate was reduced, but the crush volume was increased, and the export volume was slightly decreased, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory [3]. - **India's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6% [3].
油脂油料早报-20250627
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View The reports mainly present overnight market information, production, export data, and spot prices of the oil and fat industry. Key data include US soybean export sales, Brazilian crop production forecasts, and Malaysian palm - oil production and export data. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Overnight Market Information - For the week ending June 19, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 53.95 million tons, up 779% from the previous week and 204% from the four - week average; next - market - year export sales net increased by 7.52 million tons. Export shipments were 40.61 million tons, down 10% from the previous week but up 33% from the four - week average. New sales for the current and next market years were 54.99 million tons and 7.52 million tons respectively [1]. - On June 26, private exporters reported selling 110,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for the 2024/2025 market - year delivery [1]. - Datagro raised Brazil's 2024/25 corn production forecast to 134 million tons, nearly 1% higher than the previous estimate and 10% higher than 2023/24; soybean harvest was estimated at 173.5 million tons, about 0.8% higher than the previous estimate and 12% higher than 2023/24 [1]. - From June 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm - oil production increased 3.83% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.09% and oil extraction rate down 0.05%. Export volume was 748,145 tons, a 21.02% decrease from the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - From June 20 to June 26, 2025, the spot prices of bean meal in Jiangsu decreased from 2900 to 2790; rapeseed meal in Guangdong decreased from 2550 to 2420; soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased from 8390 to 8220; palm oil in Guangzhou decreased from 8740 to 8510; and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased from 9900 to 9620 [2].
油脂油料早报-20250618
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 04:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of Brazilian soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015 due to favorable weather; exports soared 25.62% to 1.38 million tons, mainly driven by strong demand from China and India, and the export momentum is expected to continue until the third quarter; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Export Sales - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for shipment in the 2025/2026 market year [1] Brazil's Exports - Brazil's soybean export volume in a certain month is expected to be 1,437 million tons, 2% higher than the previous week's forecast, and over 50 million tons more than last year; the expected export volume of soybean meal is 197 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous week's forecast [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production in a certain month reached 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase, the highest in the same period since 2015; exports increased by 25.62% (+283,000 tons) to 1.38 million tons, mainly due to strong demand from China and India; short - term production may slow down and production activities in a certain month are expected to decrease [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 11 to June 17, 2025 are provided [2] Basis - Protein meal basis and oil basis are mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3] Futures Spread - The term "oil and oilseed futures spread" is mentioned, but no specific content is provided
油脂油料早报-20250609
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:33
1. Market Information - As of the week ending June 1st, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 9.4% to 175,100 tons compared with the previous week, and from August 1st, 2024, to June 1st, 2025, exports reached 8.5237 million tons, a 60.1% increase year-on-year. The commercial inventory of rapeseed in Canada as of June 1st was 970,500 tons [1] - From June 1st - 5th, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% month-on-month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 19.16% and oil extraction rate down 0.01% [1] - As of June 5th, the harvest rate of Argentina's 2024/25 soybean crop was 91%, lower than 94% in the same period last year [1] - Brazilian producers have sold 64% of their expected 2024/25 soybean output, over 11 billion tons, with sales delayed. Sales increased by 7 percentage points but were lower than last year's 71.8% and the five - year average of 76.9%. For the next year, 10.8% of expected output has been pre - sold, compared with 14.6% last year and an average of 20.6% [1] 2. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from May 30th to June 6th, 2025, are provided, showing fluctuations in prices during this period [3] 3. Other Information - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil and oilseed futures spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is given [4]
油脂油料早报-20250529
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 03:34
램曾良H 品 图片 品質H 器员H 唱总员H 品 图片 品ରH RBH 唱总员H 品ରH | 临息员|H 唱点资讯 品 图IH 唱片图片 据启窗H 品员H 品 澳门 COD 憑点資訊 COD 原点资讯 CDD 翡点资讯 COD JURCE POINT COD JE REE POINT COD 張卓資訊 COD 張点资訊 CD COD 張点资訊 COD 原点资讯 COD 原点资讯 COO JE SOURCE POINT □○□ 順点资讯 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/05/29 隔夜市场信息: nan 月毛棕榈油参考价格下调至每吨 印尼贸易部公布的一项监管规定显示,印尼已将 月份的毛棕榈油参考价格下调至每吨856. 38美元。 在新参考价格下, 月毛棕榈油出口关税将为52美元/吨,低于上个月的每吨74美元。 加拿大油菜籽产量料为 ●一份大宗商品研究报告显示,2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量预估下调1%,至1,800万吨,由于萨斯喀彻温省和马尼恩总 托巴省核心种植区的土壤水分状况继续恶化,尽管 月初出现了有益的降雨。 报告显示,加拿大油菜籽种植面积预估为859万公顷,较上年度减少3.5%,比加拿大 ...
2025二季度生猪及饲料市场展望
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 07:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].