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油脂油料早报-20251107
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents overnight market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including production and export data from major producing countries and analyst forecasts for U.S. export sales. It also provides precipitation conditions, import profit margins, and price data for soybeans, palm oil, and related products [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 5, 2025, increased by 6.8% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 5.12% and oil extraction rate up 0.32% [1]. - Brazil's projected soybean exports in November 2025 are 377 million tons, compared to 234 million tons in the same period last year. The projected export of soybean meal is 223 million tons, compared to 173 million tons last year [1]. - Analysts expect U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales to net increase by 40 - 200 million tons for the week ending October 30; soybean meal export sales to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons; and soybean oil export sales to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 6,727,845.14 tons of soybeans in October 2025, a 43% year - on - year increase, with a daily average export volume of 305,811.14 tons, also a 43% increase [1][2]. Other Information - The report also includes data on precipitation in major producing countries, import profit margins for soybeans and oils, and price data for protein meals, oils, and related products from October 31 to November 6, 2025 [1][3].
油脂油料早报-20251104
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 01:03
Report Overview Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Report's Core View The reports present a comprehensive overview of the global oils and fats and oilseeds market, covering planting progress, production, imports, and price trends in major producing and consuming regions. Key factors influencing the market include weather conditions, price differentials between various oils, and demand fluctuations in major importing countries like India. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - As of October 30, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 47% of the expected area, lower than 54% in the same period last year and up from 36% the previous week. The planting rate of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 60%, compared to 59% last year [1]. - Expana predicts that the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed planting area will reach 6.46 million hectares, a 7% increase from the current year and 11% above the five - year average, the highest since 2010/11. Sunflower and soybean planting areas for harvest in 2027 are also expected to increase. The organization maintains the current - year rapeseed production forecast at 20.4 million tons, a 20.9% increase from last year; sunflower seed production at 8.4 million tons, a 3.4% decrease; and soybean production at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 increased by 5.55% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.50% and oil extraction rate up 0.20% [1]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - month low of 600,000 tons, a 27.6% month - on - month decrease. The 2024/25 market - year imports decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. Meanwhile, India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports soared 61.6% to a record 5.56 million tons, while sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% to 2.88 million tons. In October, India's total edible oil imports decreased by 20.7% month - on - month to 1.27 million tons, while the 2024/25 total imports increased by 0.3% to 16 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oils and oilseeds in different regions of China from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Others - Information on protein meal basis, oils and fats basis, and oils and fats and oilseeds futures price spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3][5]
美豆、美豆粕价格上涨,外盘走势强于内盘
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:28
Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]
需求维持刚需为主 菜籽油期价仍将承压
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-29 06:01
Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing volatility and a downward trend in prices, influenced by various supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures opened at 9712.00 CNY/ton, with intraday fluctuations leading to a maximum of 9722.00 CNY and a minimum of 9449.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.09% [1]. - As of the end of week 43 in 2025, domestic imported canola seed inventory totaled 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week, compared to 700,000 tons during the same period last year [1]. - The number of canola oil futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 7840 as of October 28 [1]. Group 2: Future Market Outlook - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the export of Australian canola to China remains unstable, influenced by recent statements from the Australian Prime Minister, which may affect the risk premium in the canola market [2]. - The supply pressure from the Canadian canola harvest is significant, with reduced exports impacting prices, while domestic policies regarding anti-dumping on Canadian canola are expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - The market is expected to see a rebound in canola meal prices in the short term, while canola oil prices are likely to remain under pressure due to ample soybean oil supply and strong demand primarily driven by necessity [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251020
Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].
油脂油料早报-20251016
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 00:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the current situation in the global oilseeds and oils market, including soybean processing, production, and trade in the US and Brazil, palm oil exports in Malaysia, and edible oil imports in India, along with price - related data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog US Soybean Processing and Inventory - In September 2025, the US soybean processing volume reached the fourth - highest monthly level on record, with NOPA member companies processing 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. The market expected a decline to 186.34 million bushels [1] - The average daily processing volume in September was 6.595 million bushels, the second - highest on record [1] - As of September 30, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the previous year. Analysts predicted it to drop to 1.22 billion pounds [1] - In September, the US produced 4,700,448 short tons of soybean meal and 2.352435 billion pounds of soybean oil [1] Brazil's Soybean Production and Trade - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) estimated that Brazil's 2025 soybean production would be 165.865717 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the previous year. The planting area was estimated to be 47.696481 million hectares, a 3.6% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.1% increase from the previous year [1] - Industry analysts expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record high of 177.6 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the previous year, mainly due to a record - high planting area. Current estimates are higher than the USDA's September report [1] - Conab data showed that Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean exports were expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, with production at 177.64 million tons, planting area at 49.1 million hectares, and a yield of 3.62 tons per hectare [1] Malaysia's Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 862,724 tons, a 16.2% increase from the same period last month [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 781,006 tons, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month [1] India's Edible Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, as refineries favored cheaper soybean oil. Soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [1] - The decline in palm oil imports dragged down India's total edible oil imports in September by 1% to 1.6 million tons [1] - A dealer predicted that India's palm oil imports in October might drop to about 600,000 tons, while soybean oil imports might exceed 450,000 tons [1] Price - related Data - The report provides historical data on the crushing profit of imported soybeans, import profit of various oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil), spot prices of palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as basis and price spreads of protein meals and oils [1][2]
油脂油料早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysis agency's average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [1]. - HedgePoint predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 178 million tons, and the export volume will be 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC has lowered its export volume estimates for Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal in September [1]. - Due to increased production and weak demand, Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported the sale of 101,400 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - The average estimate of U.S. soybean inventory on September 1st is 323 million bushels, with a forecast range of 295 - 360 million bushels, and the USDA's previous estimate for the 2024/25 season was 330 million bushels [1]. - A survey shows that U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending September 18th are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil from a net decrease of 1 million tons to a net increase of 3 million tons [1]. - HedgePoint predicts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 178 million tons and export volume at 112 million tons [1]. - ANEC lowered its September soybean export volume estimate from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and soybean meal from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [1]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm - oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons, production increased by 6% month - on - month to 5.11 million tons, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 18th to 24th, 2025 [2]. Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis No specific information provided [3]. Oil and Oilseed Futures Price Spreads No specific information provided [5].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250918
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, raised the estimated crush to 2.555 billion bushels, and lowered the estimated export to 1.685 billion bushels, resulting in an increase in the 2025/2026 US soybean ending stocks to 300 million bushels. The report's impact on the market was neutral to bearish. With the improvement signal of Sino-US trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the short - term Dalian meal is expected to be under pressure [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weakly volatile. The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.35% month - on - month, exports decreased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month. The bearish impact of the data has been mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia has reduced the concern about production, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal has brought certainty to the oil market. Oils are expected to fluctuate overall [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8366, 9424, and 9999 respectively, with changes of - 52, - 58, and - 54, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the previous day's closing prices were 3002 and 2490, with changes of - 39 and - 40, and percentage changes of - 1.28% and - 1.58% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 spreads were - 68, 116, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current values of M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared with previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4383 ringgit per ton, 1049 cents per bushel, 53 cents per pound, and 286 dollars per ton respectively. The changes were - 42, - 5, - 1, and - 1, and the percentage changes were - 0.95%, - 0.48%, - 2.58%, and - 0.21% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8580 and 8700, with percentage changes of - 0.69% and - 0.57% respectively. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9560 and 9450, with a percentage change of 0.53%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10250, with a percentage change of 0.29% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 214 and 334, the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was 136 and 26, and the spot basis of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 251 [2]. Import and Crush - The current values of import profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 280, - 28, - 188, 211, 827, and 879 respectively, compared with previous values of - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 24,544, 1,570, 8,202, 29,065, 10,104, and 0 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous values for soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, and with a decrease of 110 for rapeseed meal [2]. Industry Information - Palm oil: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from September 1 - 15 was 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease compared with the same period last month according to AmSpec [3]. - Protein meal: The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. Sino - US trade relations showed a positive signal, and the domestic supply of soybean meal was expected to increase [3]. - Oils: The August MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production increased, exports decreased, and inventory increased. The bearish impact of the data was mostly digested. The flood in Sabah, Malaysia reduced production concerns, and the US biodiesel blending obligation allocation proposal brought certainty to the oil market [3].
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250917
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - For protein meal, the night - session of soybean meal showed weak fluctuations, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. The September USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With expectations of improved domestic supply, short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly. For oils, the night - session of oils showed strong performance. Despite the lower - than - expected August palm oil exports from Malaysia, the bearish impact has been mostly digested. Due to flood concerns in Sabah and strong Indian imports, short - term oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8418, 9482, and 10053 respectively, with price changes of 42, 60, and 153, and percentage changes of 0.50%, 0.64%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the closing prices were 3041, 2530, and 8844, with price changes of - 1, 21, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.03%, 0.84%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 68, 116, and 87, compared to previous values of 6, 202, and 129. The current M9 - 1 and RM9 - 1 spreads were - 57 and - 17, compared to previous values of - 35 and 17 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4383 ringgit/ton, 1043 cents/bushel, 52 cents/pound, and 286 dollars/ton. The price changes were - 42, 6, 1, and 0, with percentage changes of - 0.95%, 0.55%, 1.72%, and 0.07% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8640 and 8750, with percentage changes of 0.70% and 0.69%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9510 and 9400, with percentage changes of 0.85% and 0.86% [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The current spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 590, compared to a previous value of - 610. The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 222 [2]. Import and Crushing Profits - **Profits**: The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 223, 32, - 148, 219, 879, and 992, compared to previous values of - 287, 13, - 176, 203, 722, and 891 [2]. Industry Information - **Brazilian Exports and Production**: Brazil's September soybean export forecast rose to 753 million tons from 743 million tons the previous week. September soybean meal export forecast rose to 219 million tons from 211 million tons, and corn export forecast reached 712 million tons from 696 million tons. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remained at 17030 million tons, 2025 export forecast remained at 10950 million tons, and 2025 crushing forecast was raised to 5850 million tons [3]. MPOb Report - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: Malaysia's August palm oil production was 1.85 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.32 million tons, a 0.29% month - on - month decrease. The inventory at the end of August was 2.2 million tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase [3].
油脂油料早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:18
Report Overview - The report provides overnight market information on oilseeds and oils, including data from USDA reports, export figures, and news on biodiesel projects [1]. - It also presents spot prices of various oilseeds and oils from September 8 - 12, 2025 [2]. USDA Oilseed Report Highlights Rapeseed - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 9096.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 523.5 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 1137.4 million tons, up 101 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed oil production is expected to be 3469.9 million tons, up 59.8 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 312.2 million tons, down 8.8 million tons [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed meal production is expected to be 4958.2 million tons, up 57.3 million tons; ending stocks are expected to be 157.9 million tons, up 19.8 million tons [1]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 670 million tons, down 263.5 million tons; rapeseed oil exports are expected to be 337.5 million tons, up 3.5 million tons; rapeseed meal exports are expected to be 550 million tons, down 29.9 million tons [1]. Palm Oil - Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil ending stocks are expected to be 1524 million tons, up 20.6 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 palm oil exports are expected to be 4570.8 million tons, a downward revision of 45.5 million tons from last month's estimate [1]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 2400 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1610 million tons, also unchanged [1]. Soybean - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 175 million tons, the same as the August estimate; exports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from August [1]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 48.5 million tons, the same as in August; exports are estimated at 6 million tons, up from 5.8 million tons in August [1]. - China's 2025/26 soybean imports are estimated at 112 million tons, the same as the August estimate [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production is estimated at 425.87 million tons, down from 426.39 million tons in August; ending stocks are estimated at 123.99 million tons, down from 124.9 million tons in August [1]. Other Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10, 2025, were 244,940 tons, a 27.8% decline from the same period last month [1]. - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil content in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before reaching B50, currently at 40% [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 8 - 12, 2025, are presented in a table [2].