油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/26 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 截至2月19日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨 USDA报告公布之前，分析师预估显示，截至2月19日当周，美豆出口销售料净增40-110万吨，其中2025/26市场年度 料净增40-100万吨，2026/27市场年度料净增0-10万吨。 美国豆粕出口销售料净增25-50万吨，其中当前市场年度料净增25-50万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。美国豆油 出口销售料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，其中当前市场年度料净减1万吨至净增1.6万吨，下一市场年度料净增0万吨。 美国环保署：美国生物燃料混合规定将于3月最终确定 美国环境保护署助理署长AaronSzabo周三表示，美国环境保护署将于周三向白宫提交新的生物燃料混合量授权提 案，该规则可能会在3月底前最终确定。 MPOA：马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量环比下降12.29% MPOA公布的数据显示，马来西亚2月1-20日毛棕榈油产量较前一个月同期下降12.29%。其中，马来半岛产量下降 10.74%，沙巴产量减少15.23%，沙捞越产量减少11.2%，婆 ...

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is showing a strong performance with the main contract for rapeseed oil opening at 8863.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 9158.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.44% increase [1] - Current market sentiment for rapeseed oil is characterized by strong realities but weak expectations, with low domestic inventories but concerns over potential increases in rapeseed and oil imports due to ongoing trade negotiations between China and Canada [2] - The international oilseed prices are supported by rising US soybean oil prices, which may reduce the likelihood of direct imports of Canadian rapeseed oil into China, leading to a shift from a weak trend to a wide-ranging fluctuation in domestic rapeseed oil futures [2] Group 2 - Oil mills are currently in a shutdown state, maintaining a destocking mode for rapeseed oil, which supports its price and keeps the basis at a high level [2] - The arrival of Australian rapeseed and the anticipated easing of China-Canada trade relations may increase supply pressure in the future [2] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook on the fundamentals, while the market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions affecting US soybean exports [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Night trading of protein meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) closed higher. The expected high yield of South American soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to pressure prices, but the suspension and resumption of imported soybean auctions and strong downstream demand have affected the price trend [3]. - Night trading of oils was strong. The December MPOB report on palm oil was in line with market expectations, with production down and exports up, and inventory growth within expectations, having a neutral impact on the market. Soybean oil prices are supported by supply concerns, and it is expected that soybean and palm oils will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 7994 for soybean oil, 8724 for palm oil, 8980 for rapeseed oil, 2790 for soybean meal, 2770 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 0, 42, - 62, 4, - 18, and 26 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.48%, - 3.15%, 0.14%, - 0.65%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 3970 ringgit/ton for BMD palm oil, 1051 cents/bushel for CBOT soybeans, 50.35 cents/pound for CBOT soybean oil, and 298 dollars/ton for CBOT soybean meal. The price changes were - 15, - 12, 1, and - 5 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 1.15%, 1.39%, and - 1.78% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.12%, while the prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.35% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current basis and spreads of domestic spot products have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 526, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit and crush margin values of various imported products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 235 to - 232, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed changed from 581 to 577 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipts of soybean oil changed from 29,426 to 29,197, and the warehouse receipts of palm oil changed from 560 to 1,248 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month, reaching 466,457 tons [3]. - According to MPOB data, Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1,829,761 tons, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1,316,522 tons, and inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [3]. - As of the week of January 3, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%, with a high - yield expectation [3].

看向国内市场，我国9月停购美豆后进口数量不降反增，主要是因为在供应缺口预期增强和巴西大豆丰 产的背景下，提前购买了大量的南美大豆。截至10月底，我国累计进口大豆9566.86万吨，同比增长 6.37%。截至11月国内油厂大豆到港量为9484.15万吨，同比增长8.7%。我国大豆进口格局变化明显，巴 西大豆占比从71%提升至74%，阿根廷大豆占比从4%提升至5%，美国大豆占比从21%下降至17%。 10月29日，中粮集团采购了3船共计18万吨美国大豆，标志着美豆采购正式重启。但美国大豆对华出口 量短期难以恢复至近年平均水平。以1200万吨的美国大豆采购协议为例，最初协议约定在2025年年底前 完成采购，但我国需求表现平淡，截至当前，阶段性落地订单仅200余万吨，剩余部分已协商推迟至 2026年执行。由此可见，目前国内企业对美豆的采买意愿一般。根据买船进度来看，2026年1—2月采购 进度较12月大幅提升。同时，中储粮于12月11日拍卖了51.25万吨大豆、12月16日进行第二轮51.39万吨 的大豆拍卖，大豆供应充足。根据钢联预测，2026年1月大豆供应量将达到1250万吨，基本追平2025年 同期，2026年 ...

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1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil, with soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil ending inventories of 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.4% and a 9.4% increase compared to the average of last year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil produced, and the ending inventories of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, increasing by 6.4% year - on - year and 9.4% compared to the average of last year [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 10 - 16, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No information provided [3] Oil and Fat Futures Spread - No information provided [6] Oil and Fat Basis - No information provided [8]

现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/02 | 3020 | 2520 | 8550 | 8670 | 10020 | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | 2510 | 8580 | 8680 | 10000 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/09 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售13.2万吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售132,000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 12月4日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为1,018,127吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的 ...

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not mentioned - **Core View**: The report provides overnight market information on the export sales of US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, as well as the situation of palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia. It also shows the spot prices of related products. Overnight Market Information - The USDA will release the export sales report for the week ending October 30 at 21:30 Beijing time on Thursday. Analysts estimate that US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 600,000 - 2,000,000 tons, US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 200,000 - 450,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [1] - A survey shows that Malaysia's November palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high due to slow exports and record - high production in November. The estimated inventory is 2.66 million tons, a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month but still the highest November production on record. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production forecast remains unchanged at 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. Adverse weather restricts production growth. The EC weather model predicts drier weather in the next 15 days, but there are uncertainties in the medium - to - long - term weather patterns [1] - The 2025/26 Indonesian palm oil production forecast is raised to 51.2 million tons, a less than 1% increase from the previous forecast, with an estimated range of 46.2 - 56.2 million tons. However, there are flood risks [1] Spot Prices - The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 27 to December 3, 2025 [2]

Core Insights - The training session focused on empowering the food industry through capital market mechanisms, enhancing understanding and confidence among enterprises regarding capital market tools for industrial development [7][13] - The event was organized by the Municipal Financial Office in collaboration with CITIC Securities and Qingdao Blue Ocean Equity Exchange Center, highlighting a comprehensive capital support system for enterprises throughout their lifecycle [1][7] Group 1: Training Overview - The training included presentations on the Hong Kong capital market and practical aspects of listing food companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, providing structured analysis of the number of listed companies, total market value changes, and industry distribution [3][9] - Key speakers included senior executives from CITIC Securities, who provided insights into capital market operations and strategies tailored for the food industry [3][9] Group 2: Market Insights - Analysts discussed the outlook for the livestock industry, particularly the egg futures market, predicting a continuation of wide fluctuations, and emphasized the need for long-term strategies in the pig market [5][11] - The oilseed market was also analyzed, with expectations of increased production of international palm oil, while domestic supply and demand dynamics were addressed to prepare for future market changes [5][11] Group 3: Participation and Impact - Over 50 participants from key food industry enterprises, financial management departments, and industry liaison officers attended the training, indicating strong interest and engagement in capital market opportunities [7][13] - Attendees expressed a clearer understanding of industry development and the supportive role of capital markets, committing to translate knowledge into actionable steps for advancing their listing processes [7][13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents overnight market information on the oilseeds and oils industry, including production and export data from major producing countries and analyst forecasts for U.S. export sales. It also provides precipitation conditions, import profit margins, and price data for soybeans, palm oil, and related products [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 5, 2025, increased by 6.8% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 5.12% and oil extraction rate up 0.32% [1]. - Brazil's projected soybean exports in November 2025 are 377 million tons, compared to 234 million tons in the same period last year. The projected export of soybean meal is 223 million tons, compared to 173 million tons last year [1]. - Analysts expect U.S. 2025/26 soybean export sales to net increase by 40 - 200 million tons for the week ending October 30; soybean meal export sales to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons; and soybean oil export sales to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 6,727,845.14 tons of soybeans in October 2025, a 43% year - on - year increase, with a daily average export volume of 305,811.14 tons, also a 43% increase [1][2]. Other Information - The report also includes data on precipitation in major producing countries, import profit margins for soybeans and oils, and price data for protein meals, oils, and related products from October 31 to November 6, 2025 [1][3].