证券研究报告 2025年08月26日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 市场即底气：国产大飞机的产业突围与广阔空间 作者： 分析师 王泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070002 分析师 赵博轩 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525020002 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 国防军工 核心观点：大飞机产业链自主可控迫在眉睫，市场空间广阔 ➢ 中国商用飞机全球市占率在20%以上；C919产能持续扩充 需求方面，据中国商飞预测，预计到2042年全球客机总规模将达到48455架（约为2022年的2.2倍），中国客机将达到9969架（占比21%）， 成为全球最大单一航空市场。此外，据中国商飞披露，预计未来20年（2023-2042年）我国将接收超9000架新机、对应价值1.4万亿美元。 产能方面，2025年3月，中国商飞提出C919新的产能规划，预计到2027年产能将达到150架/年，2029年产能200架/年，产能持续扩充。此 外，C919大飞机在东南亚等地执飞计划提速，并在欧洲适航进展积极。我们认为，伴随C919批产交付进程的不断加快， ...

Core Insights - Jiangxi's aviation industry has made significant advancements, including the production of over 25% of the C919 large passenger aircraft's fuselage components and the establishment of a core test flight base for large aircraft [1] - The city of Jingdezhen has been designated as a pilot city for the reform of the technology transfer mechanism in the aviation industry, which is expected to enhance the overall efficiency of technology transfer in Jiangxi's aviation sector [1][3] Group 1: Development of Aviation Industry - Jingdezhen is emerging as a key aviation industry base, attracting various research institutions and central enterprises, which supports the growth of the local aviation sector [2] - The Jingdezhen Aviation Town, covering 12 square kilometers, is fostering the rapid gathering of aviation industry resources, with new companies specializing in drone manufacturing being established [2] - The aviation industry chain in Jiangxi is being strengthened, with a focus on integrating upstream and downstream sectors, including helicopter and drone research and manufacturing [2] Group 2: Technology Transfer and Innovation - Jingdezhen is implementing measures to accelerate the commercialization of scientific research results, including the establishment of a technology transfer center and funding support for new verification centers and pilot bases [3] - The local government is actively creating a new ecosystem for technology transfer in the aviation industry, aiming to enhance the linkage between research and market needs [3] Group 3: Industrial Ecosystem and Collaboration - Jiangxi's aviation industry benefits from a strong historical foundation, with Nanchang being the birthplace of China's first aircraft, which supports the development of an aviation equipment industry cluster [4] - The formation of an industrial ecosystem is enhancing Jiangxi's integration into the Yangtze River Delta large aircraft cluster, providing a collaborative framework for regional industry [4] - Jiangxi is recognized as a key player in the national advanced manufacturing cluster for large aircraft, with ongoing strategic cooperation with COMAC to boost domestic aircraft manufacturing capabilities [4] Group 4: Future Goals and Economic Impact - Jiangxi aims to establish a dual-core and multi-point support industrial development pattern centered around Nanchang and Jingdezhen, with a target of achieving 250 billion yuan in total revenue from the aviation industry chain by 2026 [5] - The province currently hosts 297 aviation-related enterprises, including 191 manufacturing and supporting units, indicating a robust industrial base [5] - The focus will be on advancing technologies in aircraft, engines, key materials, and core components, while enhancing services and economic development related to aviation [5]