国防军工行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 2026 年投资策略聚焦"转型增长的信心"，强调自下而上精选个股， 关注企业第一成长曲线（传统主业）和第二成长曲线（新兴方向），尤 其关注通过长期技术积累或业务布局开拓的高端民用应用场景。 短期和中期内，军转民和军贸是两大潜力赛道，商业航天领域因其市值 高度、持续性及催化剂等因素，发展前景明确，SpaceX 的 IPO 估值预 期为国内相关标的提供了参考。 商业航天发展前景可从市值高度（对标 SpaceX）、持续性（中美太空 算力及卫星互联网建设）和催化剂（可回收火箭成功、两会政策支持、 公司 IPO）三个维度评估。 军工行业需求传导路径为战略牵引规划、规划牵引资源配置及年度计划 执行，国防与部队现代化建设需求旺盛且有韧性，构成行业结构性机会 及整体增长信心的基础。 2026 年商业航天领域催化因素包括国网、GW 星座成功组网，千帆星 座建设进展，以及国产发动机和国产大飞机从暗线转向明线，成为新的 主题催化点。 Q&A 2025 年军工行业的主要投资方向和策略是什么？ 2025 年，军工行业的投资策略可以分为三个主要赛道：内装、军贸和军转民。 内装 ...

2004年，美国权威媒体《外交事务》杂志刊登了一篇题为《中国奇迹背后的神话》（The Myth Behind China's Miracle）的文章。作者乔治.吉尔坡（George J. Gilboy）在文中试图为当时甚嚣尘上的"中国威胁 论"降温，结论却并非善意的"理性纠偏"，而是一种带着傲慢的否定：中国不值得担心。 理由有三： 其一，中国所谓的高科技出口，主导者并非中国企业，而是在华外资公司； 其二，中国企业高度依赖西方的设计、关键零部件和生产设备； 其三，中国企业并未真正吸收、内化这些技术，因此不可能成长为全球工业竞争者。 归结起来就是一句话：中国也许会增长，但永远走不出代工和低端制造的位置。与其说这是分析，不如 说是一种带着时代偏见的判断。 二十多年过去，世界给出了截然不同的回答。 2025年，《商业内幕》德国版在报道中直言不讳地写道："如果中国（在全球生产中）的主导地位仅限 于玩具、纺织品甚至是笔记本电脑和智能手机，就不会引起担忧了。"报道写道，"中国向高附加值先进 制造业迈进的速度和规模"，正日益引发西方国家的关注。 德意志银行的分析报告显示，1995年，中国在全球工业生产中的占比不足5%；三十年 ...

地球知识局 . 人文+地理+设计，全球视野新三观。 合作请联系：xiaobaibai_9999（注明品牌和需求） 以下文章来源于地球知识局 ，作者地球知识局 德国启示录。 作者 / 绯红之猪 来源 / 地球知识局 （ID： diqiuzhishiju ） 我们小时候都读过类似的故事：美国沃尔玛超市卖1 0美元的芭比娃娃，中国离岸价格只 有2美元，代工厂的利润只有可怜的0 . 3 5美元。我们要做数以亿计的芭比娃娃，才能换 一架美国波音公司的大飞机。 这其实，正是早年间中国制造业"大而不强"的无情写照，即被发达国家用高端制造业的 剪刀差"割韭菜"。 十 年 前 ， 中 国 提 出 了 " 中 国 制 造 2 0 2 5 " 计 划 ， 决 心 用 十 年 时 间 ， 分 两 步 （ 2 0 2 0 、 2 0 2 5） 彻 底 扭 转 中 国 制 造 业在 当时" 大 而 不强 " 的 基本 现状 ， 并选 定 了 以 下 十 个 重点 领 域，作为主要突破方向： 新一代信息技术产业 高档数控机床和机器人 航空航天装备 节能与新能源汽车 电力装备、农业装备 新材料和生物医药及高性能医疗器械 在更早的时间点（2 ...

日前召开的中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记以"五个必须"概括做好新形势下经济工作新的认识和体会，明确指出"必须以苦练内功来 应对外部挑战"，强调面对国际风云变幻和各种风险挑战，要保持战略定力，坚定不移把自己的事情办好。 当前，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存。面对不确定难预料因素增多，集中精力办好自己的事，提高自身实力 和发展质量，就是最大的确定性。这是我们党成功驾驭中国经济发展大局的重要经验，也是确保"十五五"开好局、起好步的关键所在。 凝聚共识：坚定不移把自己的事情办好 "十四五"收官之际，我国航空制造领域传来好消息： 首台1230吨蒙皮拉伸机通过验收，以0.1毫米级的成型精度，攻克了关键制造装备的"卡脖子"难题，提升了国产大飞机产业链的韧性与竞 争力。 2025年3月5日在中国商飞上海飞机设计研究院拍摄的C919、C929展示样机。新华社记者 刘颖 摄 面对复杂的外部环境和激烈的大国博弈，航空制造业不断攻坚克难，研发、试验、交付、做深做细产业链，提质升级的每一步，正是中国 经济以练内功增定力、强实力的生动写照。 行进在风高浪急的复杂环境中，锚定方向、稳扎稳打，是抵御干扰、把握主动的关 ...

民用航空业是现代工业的"皇冠"，对中国国内经济和科技而言，它具有显著的"乘数效应"，能带动材 料、电子、制造、计算机等数十个领域的关键技术群体突破，带动产业升级和创造就业岗位。对世界而 言，中国的C909、C919，不仅是一种区别于波音和空客的消费选择，也为打破西方技术和产业垄断、 增强世界供应链稳定性提供了"中国方案"。上个月C919在迪拜航展上亮相广受欢迎的情景充分说明， 中国大飞机产业的突破，不仅是中国高端制造业发出的自信强音，也点亮了全球航空市场多元化发展的 希望之光。 C909这条"从0到1"经过验证的路径，鼓舞着中国的科技自主，其意义超越了一型飞机本身。展望未 来，中国拥有的全球发展最快、潜力最大的单一航空市场的优势没有变，中国拥有的完整工业体系的优 势没有变，大飞机产业作为国家战略重点获得长期、稳定、顶层的资源支持和政策保障也不会变——事 实上，加快航空航天等战略性新兴产业集群发展已赫然写入"十五五"规划建议，中国大飞机发展从来不 缺底气。 然而，越是里程碑时刻，我们越需要清醒地看到，在空客和波音超过半个世纪甚至百年的积淀面前， C909的成绩单只是一张"入场券"，而非"功劳簿"。175架的交付 ...

Core Viewpoint - The C919 aircraft is unlikely to receive European certification this year, with a projected delay of three to six years, indicating that the European market is not ready to accept large Chinese aircraft in the short term [1][5]. Group 1: Certification and Market Impact - The C919 has been a key focus for COMAC after receiving domestic certification, as obtaining EASA certification is crucial for international credibility [3]. - EASA's recent evaluations have been positive, but the certification process is still lengthy, with estimates suggesting the earliest certification could occur in 2028 and possibly as late as 2031 [5]. - The delay in certification is seen as a protective measure for Airbus, especially following the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which has allowed Airbus to expand its market share significantly [5]. Group 2: Engine and Production Challenges - The C919 is currently equipped with the LEAP-1C engine, but U.S. export licenses were temporarily suspended due to technology leak concerns, impacting production schedules [7][8]. - Despite these challenges, COMAC has made progress with the domestically developed Changjiang 1000A engine, which is expected to undergo in-flight testing soon and could mitigate reliance on foreign suppliers [8][10]. - The production line is operating at full capacity, with plans to deliver 30 aircraft by 2025, indicating strong domestic demand despite European market challenges [10]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The C919 is not solely dependent on the European market, as bilateral agreements allow it to operate in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [10]. - The Changjiang 1000A engine is anticipated to be certified by 2026, and the C929 wide-body aircraft is expected to enter service by 2030, further reducing reliance on Western markets [10].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Dubai Airshow marks a significant event for the Chinese aviation industry, showcasing the C919 aircraft, which aims to enhance China's presence in the global aerospace sector [1][4]. Group 1: C919 Aircraft Overview - The C919 is China's first fully independently developed large passenger jet, designed to compete with Airbus A320Neo and Boeing B737Max, with a lower catalog price compared to its competitors [4][5]. - The aircraft made its Middle East debut at the Dubai Airshow, highlighting China's strategic ambitions in the aviation market [1][11]. - Despite previous exhibitions, the C919 and its variants have not yet received key certifications from Western regulatory bodies, which China is actively seeking to improve its international recognition [4][7]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Boeing and Airbus are currently facing delivery delays, providing an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers like COMAC to establish a foothold in the market [1][4]. - Boeing's commercial aircraft CEO welcomed the competition from COMAC, emphasizing that competition benefits the entire industry [1]. - Airbus's CEO acknowledged the presence of COMAC as a competitor rather than a threat, indicating a recognition of the evolving competitive landscape [2]. Group 3: Future Plans and Developments - COMAC is developing a "family of aircraft" to compete with various models from Boeing and Airbus, including an extended version of the C919 that can accommodate 210 passengers [5][9]. - The C909, China's first commercially produced jet, is also part of COMAC's offerings, with 170 units already delivered and operational in Southeast Asia [11]. - The company aims to enhance production capacity to meet growing demand, as the domestic market for similar aircraft is substantial, with over 3,200 planes in operation [9][11]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Challenges - Recent regulatory changes in Brunei have allowed local airlines to operate Chinese-made aircraft, marking a step forward for COMAC in gaining international market access [7]. - Despite the challenges posed by trade disputes, there are signs of easing tensions, as the U.S. government has resumed exports of jet engines to COMAC [8][9]. - The company is focused on building strong relationships with global customers and partners while navigating the complexities of international aviation regulations [9].

Core Insights - The Dubai Airshow commenced on November 17, showcasing China's domestically produced aircraft C919 and C909 for the first time, highlighting China's advancements in commercial aviation and fostering global industry collaboration [1][3] Group 1: Aircraft Details - The C919 aircraft, operated by China Southern Airlines, features a 164-seat three-class layout, while the C909 business jet offers a spacious interior with flexible configurations for various functions, accommodating between 12 to 29 seats [3] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) displayed a full range of aircraft models, including the C909, C919, and C929, along with variants such as the C909 business jet, medical aircraft, emergency rescue command aircraft, firefighting aircraft, and cargo planes, catering to diverse global aviation market needs [3] Group 2: Delivery and Operations - As of now, over 170 units of the C909 have been delivered to domestic and international customers, with more than 790 routes opened, particularly in Southeast Asia [3] - The C919 has seen 26 units delivered and over 30 routes opened, while the development of the C929 is progressing steadily [3]

Core Viewpoint - Aerospace Universe (688523) announced that its subsidiary, Hunan Feiyu Aviation Equipment Co., Ltd., won a bid for a project with a value of 246 million yuan, focusing on aviation equipment for the domestic market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Aerospace Universe specializes in aerospace products, satellite communication, and testing equipment, providing technical solutions and manufacturing services for research and production tasks in the aerospace sector [1]. - The company is involved in the domestic aircraft industry chain, participating in the delivery of equipment and components for commercial aircraft such as C909, C919, and C929, as well as military and unmanned aircraft [1]. Group 2: Partnership and Financial Performance - Hunan Feiyu, a joint venture established in 2019 between Aerospace Universe (65% ownership) and Shanghai Aircraft Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (35% ownership), focuses on aircraft component production and assembly [2]. - Hunan Feiyu's revenue exceeded 100 million yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 11.07 million yuan, and is projected to achieve 194 million yuan in revenue and 28.61 million yuan in net profit in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Project Details - The recent project involves the production of metal/composite material component forming equipment, integrated forming equipment for large composite parts, assembly frames, and automated production lines, among other services [2]. - Hunan Feiyu aims to enhance its research in tooling and address long-term development challenges while meeting market demands through high-precision manufacturing and complex structure testing capabilities [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The successful completion of the project is expected to positively impact the company's operating performance, although a formal contract has yet to be signed, and the execution may be subject to unforeseen circumstances [3].

Group 1: Company Overview - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as AVIC Xi'an or the Company) was established on June 18, 1997, and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on June 26, 1997, becoming the first publicly listed company in China's aviation manufacturing industry [2] - The Company primarily engages in the research, production, maintenance, and service of large and medium-sized aircraft and aviation components, including key projects like C909, C919, and AG600 [2][3] - AVIC Xi'an plays a significant role in China's civil aviation industry chain and supply chain, contributing to national large aircraft and emergency rescue equipment systems [3] Group 2: Industry Context - The aviation industry is a strategic high-tech sector in China, characterized by high knowledge and technology intensity, with a broad technological impact and strong employment absorption capacity [4] - The development level of the aviation industry is a crucial indicator of national economic, technological, and defense capabilities, as well as industrialization [4] - The industry is essential for national security and social stability, enhancing China's international competitiveness and maintaining its global image [4] Group 3: Business Achievements - AVIC Xi'an is a major manufacturer of military large and medium-sized transport aircraft, bombers, and special aircraft, with a complete production system for civil aircraft components [5] - The Company has established long-term partnerships with renowned international aviation companies such as Airbus and Boeing, receiving multiple awards for excellence in manufacturing [5] - Key milestones include the delivery of the first aircraft from the third production line of the Airbus A320 series and the signing of new projects during the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition [5][6] Group 4: Efficiency and Cost Control Measures - The Company is focused on improving product profitability and operational efficiency through systematic development of large and medium-sized aircraft product lines and enhancing market expansion capabilities [6] - Cost reduction strategies include design optimization, technological innovation, supply chain management, and operational efficiency improvements [6] - Future plans involve internal controls centered on efficiency, scale, and risk management to enhance profitability and return value to investors [6] Group 5: Contributions to Large Aircraft Development - AVIC Xi'an has made significant contributions to military aircraft development, independently producing the Y-20 strategic transport aircraft, filling a gap in domestic large military transport aircraft production [7] - The Company is actively involved in the development of civil aircraft, participating in key projects like the C919 and C929, and enhancing the domestic supply chain for regional aircraft [7] - Ongoing international cooperation includes manufacturing key components for amphibious aircraft and providing design and manufacturing services for large civil aircraft [7] Group 6: Military Trade Progress - The Company has been advancing its military trade business, showcasing products like large strategic transport aircraft and fighter-bomber export models at international airshows [7] - Efforts to enhance product visibility and engage with international clients are ongoing, facilitating orderly development of military trade [7]