证券研究报告 | 2026年03月26日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-03-25 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3931.83 | 13801.00 | 4537.46 | 14719.60 | 4008.68 | 1315.41 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.30 | 1.95 | 1.40 | 2.14 | 1.91 | 1.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9678.54 | 12119.52 | 5504.28 | 4153.74 | 5547.69 | 715.81 | 晨会主题 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:多资产周报-黄金价格深度回调 行业与公司 公用环保行业周报:公用环保202603第4期-辽宁建立核电可持续发展价 格结算机制，2026 年 1-2 月份全社会用电量同比增长 6.1% 军工行业专题:大飞机行业深度报告- "三足鼎立"格局初现，国产替代 万亿蓝海 电新行业专题 ...

2026年03月25日 证券研究报告 | 2026年03月24日 大飞机行业深度报告 "三足鼎立"格局初现，国产替代万亿蓝海 行业研究 · 行业专题 国防军工 · 深度报告 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 全球民航市场走出疫情"阴霾" ，我国航空市场成为万亿核心增长极：1）全球民航业运行基本恢复至常态水平，未来客运量和机队 将双轮增长。未来全球航空旅客周转量将实现年均4.73%的增长，到2044年增长至2024年的2.52倍。2）未来20年我国航空市场规模达 1.4万亿美元，窄体客机占据主导地位。未来二十年预计我国将有9736架飞机交付市场，市场规模达14789亿美元，占全球整个航空市 场的21.2%；交付机型方面，单通道客机预计交付7250架，占交付总量的74.46%。 Ø 供给端 "爬坡攻坚" ，需求端 "内外扩容" ：1）供给端：截至2025年底C919累计交付30架，目前产能仍是交付核心限制，商飞正通 过总装基地扩建、推进国产发动机研制适航等举措加快产能释放。2026年作为产能爬坡关键年预计交付不少于28架。2）需求端：C919 订单总量已突破1500架， ...

Summary of the Conference Call for AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Company Overview - AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group is a major integrated base for the research and manufacturing of large and medium-sized aircraft in China, responsible for the independent development of the Y-20 military strategic transport aircraft, filling a gap in domestic development [2][5][6]. Core Industry Insights - The Y-20 serves as a versatile platform that meets intercontinental and high-speed delivery needs, with capabilities for aerial refueling, emergency rescue, and information support [2][7]. - China is the second-largest single aviation market globally, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% for new aircraft demand over the next 20 years [2][8]. - The market size for single-aisle jet aircraft is estimated at $900 billion, while the wide-body aircraft market is around $600 billion [2][8]. Key Developments and Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2025, the C919 is expected to have delivered 31 aircraft, with operations in 19 domestic city routes and over 3.6 million passengers carried [2][9]. - The C909 has already carried over 30 million passengers, indicating significant potential in the domestic regional market [2][10]. - The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) have placed orders for over 300 C919 aircraft, with delivery expected between 2024 and 2031 [2][9]. Business Structure and Strategic Positioning - The company’s business is divided into three main segments: military aircraft, aircraft components, and international cooperation and subcontracting [6][12]. - AVIC Xi'an is the largest supplier of airframe structures for the C919 and C909, with significant contributions to the C929 and new regional aircraft series [2][11]. International Collaboration and Market Dynamics - International subcontracting is a common practice in aircraft manufacturing, with Boeing and Airbus outsourcing about 60% of their components globally [12]. - AVIC Xi'an is one of the largest domestic participants in international subcontracting projects, with a strong track record of over 30 years in the industry [12]. Future Outlook and Growth Projections - The company aims for a compound profit growth target of approximately 15% through 2025, with expectations to maintain similar growth rates in 2026 and 2027 [13][14]. - The focus on low-altitude economy and aerospace as emerging strategic industries is expected to accelerate in 2026, with significant government support [3][15]. Additional Considerations - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for large transport aircraft, particularly in military trade, as global supply dynamics shift [7][15]. - The domestic regional market is characterized by rapid growth, especially in underserved areas, with the C909 addressing fundamental connectivity issues [10]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting AVIC Xi'an's strategic positioning, market insights, and future growth potential in the aviation industry.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved 1. **AI Integrated Machines**: The focus is on the domestic AI integrated machine market, particularly the DeepSeek model, with significant developments expected by 2025 [1][3][30]. 2. **Fertilizer Industry**: The report discusses the phosphate chemical industry, particularly the demand for fertilizers as spring approaches [2][17][30]. 3. **Aviation Industry**: The report highlights the progress in China's large aircraft manufacturing, specifically the C919 and C929 models [4][23][30]. Core Points and Arguments AI Integrated Machines 1. **Market Growth**: The domestic AI integrated machine market is expected to flourish, with multiple companies developing DeepSeek integrated machines, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for application [1][3][30]. 2. **China Mobile's Achievement**: On February 28, China Mobile secured its first overseas deployment of the DeepSeek integrated machine, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth [4][30]. 3. **Industry Collaboration**: At least 20 domestic chip manufacturers have partnered with DeepSeek, indicating a shift towards a domestic AI ecosystem that reduces reliance on foreign technologies [7][30]. Fertilizer Industry 1. **Phosphate Resource Scarcity**: The phosphate rock market faces challenges due to years of unregulated mining, leading to declining quality and increasing scarcity of resources [2][17][30]. 2. **Price Trends**: Fertilizer prices, particularly for monoammonium phosphate and calcium phosphate, have seen significant increases, with monoammonium phosphate rising by 9.74% month-over-month [20][21][30]. 3. **Spring Demand**: As the spring planting season approaches, the demand for fertilizers is expected to rise, with production rates increasing to meet this demand [21][30]. Aviation Industry 1. **C919 Production and Delivery**: China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) has received nearly 1,500 orders for the C919, with production expected to ramp up to 50 units by 2025 [23][25][30]. 2. **Market Value**: The projected market value for the delivery of 9,323 aircraft over the next 20 years is approximately $1.4 trillion, indicating a robust future for the domestic aviation sector [23][25][30]. 3. **Supply Chain Development**: The domestic supply chain for large aircraft is expected to improve as the localization of materials and components increases, enhancing the overall value of the industry [27][29][30]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Macroeconomic Impact on Computing Power**: The decline in computing power is attributed to global economic conditions and underperformance of AI models like GPT-4.5, but the fundamental demand for computing power remains intact [10][12][14][30]. 2. **Emerging Trends in AI**: The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring marginal changes in the computing power industry, as domestic AI development is still in its early stages [13][14][30]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on emerging growth areas and companies within the data center and AI sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities [16][30].

Group 1: Space Photovoltaics Industry - The report discusses the evolution of China's commercial space industry, highlighting its transition from "policy encouragement" to "strategic positioning" over the past three years, with significant developments expected in 2023-2025 [4] - The report notes that the current cost of rocket launches in China is approximately $5,000-$8,000 per kilogram, significantly higher than SpaceX's $1,500-$3,000 per kilogram, indicating a need for cost reduction to achieve scale [4] - The report predicts that by 2028, the number of commercial satellite launches will reach 10,000, driven by advancements in satellite power and deployment strategies [5] Group 2: Satellite Launch and Communication - In 2025, China is expected to conduct 92 launches, with 50 being commercial, marking a 54% share of commercial launches in the total [5] - The report highlights the rapid deployment of low Earth orbit communication satellites, with significant numbers of satellites planned for launch between 2024 and 2026 [5] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in satellite power and capabilities, with single satellite power expected to rise from 0.69 kW to 1.93 kW by 2030 [5] Group 3: Industry Ratings and Investment Opportunities - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the space photovoltaics industry, citing increasing industry prosperity and long-term growth potential [7] - Key companies in the space photovoltaics sector include Maiwei Co., Aotwei, and others, indicating potential investment opportunities [8] Group 4: Commercial Aircraft Development - The report emphasizes the importance of the break-even point in commercial aircraft projects and reviews the development history of Boeing and Airbus to provide insights for China's aircraft industry [9] - China is expected to accelerate the internationalization of its commercial aircraft, with the C919 model gaining interest from Southeast Asian countries and progressing towards European certification [9] - The report suggests a strategic focus on domestic aircraft and related systems to enhance self-sufficiency and investment opportunities [9] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - The report notes that Guangzhou has officially opened all areas for autonomous driving applications, which is expected to enhance the testing and commercialization of autonomous technologies [12] - The automotive sector experienced a mixed performance, with the A-share automotive index underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during a recent week [11] - The report highlights the introduction of financial promotions by Tesla in China, indicating competitive strategies in the automotive market [13] Group 6: Xiaomi Group's Financial Outlook - The report projects Xiaomi Group's revenue for Q4 2025 to be approximately 116.4 billion yuan, with a 7% year-on-year growth, despite a decline in smartphone and IoT revenues [26] - The smart electric vehicle segment is expected to see significant growth, with projected revenues of 38 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a 133% increase [28] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for Xiaomi, predicting net profits of 39.1 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 19.5 [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Insights - The report addresses key issues regarding the development of commercial aircraft projects, particularly focusing on the break-even point [11][14]. - It reviews the development history of Boeing and Airbus, providing insights that may inform the development of China's large aircraft industry [17][30]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of domestic large aircraft and associated systems, suggesting investment opportunities in these areas [37]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Issues in Commercial Aircraft Development - The lifecycle costs of commercial aircraft include design, manufacturing, operational, and disposal costs [11]. - The break-even point is crucial for evaluating the financial viability of aircraft projects, with historical data indicating that many projects take over ten years to reach this point [14][15]. 2. Review of Boeing's Development - Boeing's evolution reflects the growth path of the high-tech aviation industry, with significant shifts in supply chain management over the decades [17]. - The company experienced a peak revenue of $101.1 billion and a net profit of $10.5 billion in 2018, but faced challenges in subsequent years due to the B737 MAX grounding [20]. - By 2025, Boeing's net profit turned positive again, driven by a recovery in commercial aircraft deliveries [20]. 3. Review of Airbus's Development - Airbus became a significant player in the commercial aircraft market, surpassing Boeing in deliveries for the first time in 2003 [30]. - The company's revenue structure shows a strong reliance on commercial aircraft, which accounted for 72% of its income in 2024 [35]. 4. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, highlighting the ongoing upward demand cycle in the military industry [37]. - Suggested areas for investment include materials and structural manufacturing, engine systems, onboard systems, and total assembly units [41].

Group 1 - The core objective of the company is to participate in the development and mass production of domestic large aircraft [1] - The company is currently formulating a timeline and work plan regarding the C929 project based on internal demand [1] - The company is actively advancing according to the established goals [1]

Group 1 - The core objective of the company is to participate in the development and mass production tasks of domestic large aircraft [1] - The company is currently formulating a timeline and work plan based on the demand for the C929 aircraft [1] - The company is actively advancing according to its established goals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Zhongtu Instrument Co., Ltd. has received a letter of appreciation from COMAC, recognizing its contributions to the large aircraft industry and collaboration in advancing domestic high-end measurement equipment for the C919 and C929 aircraft projects [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Contributions - In 2025, significant milestones were achieved in the large aircraft sector, with over 200 C909 and C919 aircraft delivered, carrying more than 34 million passengers and connecting to 12 neighboring countries [3]. - The C909 fire-fighting aircraft has received certification, and the delivery of medical and business aircraft has commenced, while the C919 highland version has completed assembly and the C929 design work is progressing steadily [3][4]. - The establishment of a second production line for the C919 is nearing completion, with an annual production capacity of 50 aircraft across the entire supply chain, and the integrated assembly plant for the C929 has officially begun construction [3][4]. Group 2: Future Plans and Strategic Goals - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is crucial for the industrialization of large aircraft, with a focus on scalable and series development, self-control, and safety [4]. - The company aims to adhere to the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and implement the three major tasks assigned by President Xi Jinping, emphasizing customer-centricity and maintaining quality and safety standards [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace, highlighting the successful participation of COMAC in the 2026 Singapore Airshow, which is expected to accelerate order acquisition [7][10] - The design and testing phase of the C929 wide-body aircraft is progressing rapidly, with initial wind tunnel tests already underway, indicating a potential acceleration in R&D progress [12] - The report continues to favor commercial aerospace, military aircraft, and new types of combat capabilities, suggesting that the military industry will benefit from both domestic and international demand [13] Summary by Sections 1.1 COMAC's Participation in the 2026 Singapore Airshow - COMAC showcased multiple aircraft models, including the C909 and C919, and secured an order for six C909 firefighting aircraft, indicating a growing recognition of domestic large aircraft in international markets [10][11] 1.2 Acceleration of C929 Development - The C929's design and testing are being expedited, with resources mobilized to potentially launch the aircraft ahead of schedule. Initial wind tunnel tests have begun, marking a significant milestone in the aircraft's development [12] 1.3 Continued Optimism for Commercial Aerospace and Military Growth - The report anticipates that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will enhance military equipment construction, with a focus on unmanned systems and deep-sea technology. The military sector is expected to see growth from both civilian and military trade, positioning it as a second growth driver for the industry [13][14]