证券研究报告 2025年08月26日 行业报告： 行业专题研究 市场即底气：国产大飞机的产业突围与广阔空间 作者： 分析师 王泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523070002 分析师 赵博轩 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525020002 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 国防军工 核心观点：大飞机产业链自主可控迫在眉睫，市场空间广阔 ➢ 中国商用飞机全球市占率在20%以上；C919产能持续扩充 需求方面，据中国商飞预测，预计到2042年全球客机总规模将达到48455架（约为2022年的2.2倍），中国客机将达到9969架（占比21%）， 成为全球最大单一航空市场。此外，据中国商飞披露，预计未来20年（2023-2042年）我国将接收超9000架新机、对应价值1.4万亿美元。 产能方面，2025年3月，中国商飞提出C919新的产能规划，预计到2027年产能将达到150架/年，2029年产能200架/年，产能持续扩充。此 外，C919大飞机在东南亚等地执飞计划提速，并在欧洲适航进展积极。我们认为，伴随C919批产交付进程的不断加快， ...

2021年，"低空经济"概念首次写入国家规划；2023年，中央经济工作会议首次将"低空经济"列入战略性新兴产业行列；2024年3月全国两会上，"低空经 济"首次被写入政府工作报告；2024年7月，党的二十届三中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》和《政府工作 报告》都提出发展低空经济。 当前，全球低空经济步入 以电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）实践为主的先进空中交通（AAM）探索阶段 ，各国正积极探索培育低空经济产业，低空经 济正逐渐成为全球经济的重要增长点。根据相关数据显示，2023年中国低空经济规模达5059.5亿元，2026年有望突破万亿元。低空经济作为新质生产力 的代表，已成为产业发展的新赛道、经济增长的新引擎。 与此同时，C919、C929首飞成功、吉利星座发射、卫星集群密集组网，中国商业航天正迎来前所未有的爆发式增长，商业航空黄金时代已经到来！而 新能源汽车、低空经济、机器人、AI与商业航天产业 在多个中上游领域存在很多交叉领域，同样， 在材料解决方案上，也有诸多共同之处。 为此， 9月10-12日在合肥 召开的 2025高分子产业年会 特设 创新材料及应用论坛 ...

2023年2月7日，在大型装备制造领域曾经雄霸全球的日本三菱重工做出了一个异常艰难的决定：放弃喷气式支线客机项目的开发。这意味着，从1956年日 本首个自主研制的螺旋桨民航客机项目立项，到20世纪80年代之后和波音公司开展多个客机项目的深度国际生产合作，再到2015年自主研制的喷气式支线 客机首飞，最后到彻底放弃商用飞机的整机研制，作为世界首屈一指的制造业大国，日本民航工业在67年里经历了一个完整的抛物线，成为日本在战后实 现"工业再崛起"过程中少有的失败案例。 在二战前夕的30年代，日本当局将战斗机视为对外军事扩张的一把利刃，给三菱、中岛（即后来的富士）等工业财阀提供了大量的军用飞机订单。不仅如 此，日本政府还提供巨额补贴，建立了一系列航空业配套基础设施，以为军方提供服务。此外，日本政府还通过支持研究机构和促进教育改革，培育了一 大批飞行员和航空技术人才。 可以说，日本航空工业的早期发展，是明治维新之后日本作为后发国家在工业领域对欧美先进国家奋起直追的产物，它深嵌在整个日本第一轮工业化的滚 滚洪流之中。第二次世界大战所带来的"战争经济"，推动日本航空工业迎来"发展黄金期"。截至二战结束前，日本总计生产了超过 ...

Core Insights - Local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are playing an increasingly critical role in the current economic landscape, with a strong signal towards accelerating high-quality development [2][3] - The "Deepening and Enhancing State-Owned Enterprise Reform Action" is a key step in promoting high-quality development of local SOEs, with significant achievements reported [3][4] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, local regulatory enterprises achieved an added value of 3.7 trillion yuan and completed fixed asset investments of 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating a stabilization in operational efficiency [3] - In Chongqing, the number of key state-owned enterprises was reduced from 51 to 33, with a 70% reduction in the number of legal entities, leading to a 37.8% increase in total profits for the restructured enterprises [3] - Hainan Province reported a 35.3% year-on-year increase in total assets of key monitored enterprises, reaching 706.3 billion yuan, with the lowest asset-liability ratio in the country at 39.6% [4] Innovation and Technology - Technological innovation is identified as a key driver for quality improvement across various sectors, with local SOEs in Zhejiang Province achieving significant breakthroughs in critical technology areas [5][6] - R&D expenditure for provincial enterprises in Zhejiang reached 5.53 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 20.6% year-on-year increase, ranking fifth nationwide [5] Artificial Intelligence Development - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in state-owned enterprises is emphasized, with applications in various sectors such as transportation and urban governance [7][8] - Shenzhen is accelerating the development of 100 strategic high-value application scenarios to provide a testing ground for new technologies [8] Future Directions - There is a call for further strengthening foundational supply capabilities and planning for intelligent computing clusters to provide more efficient services [9] - The focus is on enhancing core technology research and building a flexible model capability matrix to maintain competitive advantages [9]

Core Viewpoint - The development of large aircraft, specifically the C919, is a crucial reflection of national strength and technological independence, addressing both economic needs and strategic security [2][3]. Industry Significance - The aviation industry plays a vital role in the modern economy, with large passenger aircraft directly impacting a country's position in the global supply chain. China, as the world's second-largest economy, has historically imported over 200 aircraft annually, costing approximately $20 billion [2]. - The large aircraft industry has significant economic and technological multiplier effects, driving breakthroughs in various sectors such as materials, electronics, and manufacturing. The C919 project involves over 100,000 components from more than 1,000 companies and 73 universities, enhancing the overall level of high-end manufacturing in China [2]. Technological Challenges - The core technological challenges in large aircraft development include overall design, system integration, assembly manufacturing, ground testing, flight testing, and airworthiness verification. The C919 faced over a hundred key technologies that needed to be overcome, such as lightweight wing design and noise reduction technologies [4]. - The most critical systems include the high bypass turbofan engine, flight control system, avionics system, and other key onboard systems, which are considered the most challenging aspects of aircraft development [4]. Development Journey - The C919 project faced significant challenges at its inception in 2007, particularly in terms of technological reserves and route selection. The lack of foundational technology and testing facilities necessitated concurrent technological breakthroughs and engineering development [5]. - The project adopted a "main manufacturer-supplier" model to promote overall industry development, leading to the establishment of a commercial aircraft industry system centered around COMAC [9]. Future Plans - China plans to develop larger wide-body aircraft following the successful introduction of the C919. The development of long-range wide-body aircraft is strategically important for ensuring national aviation transport security and enhancing competitive capabilities in the commercial aircraft market [10]. - The C929, a long-range wide-body aircraft, will face new technical challenges, including the need for more powerful engines and advanced electrical and hydraulic systems, as well as a higher proportion of composite materials [11]. Talent Development - The development of large aircraft requires a long-term commitment to talent cultivation alongside technological breakthroughs. The C919 project has emphasized the integration of talent development with aircraft design and manufacturing [9]. - The future of the aviation industry will benefit from cross-disciplinary collaboration and innovation, leveraging advancements in artificial intelligence, new energy sources, and next-generation information technology [14].

Group 1 - Airbus secured orders worth $21 billion at the Paris Air Show, while Boeing did not disclose its sales figures [2] - Boeing dominates the global cargo aircraft market, particularly in China, despite facing challenges in the commercial passenger aircraft sector due to safety incidents [2] - China's focus on developing large passenger aircraft has led to a lack of attention on cargo aircraft, resulting in limited models and lower payload capacities for domestic cargo planes [2] Group 2 - Boeing's cargo aircraft shortage is emphasized, with estimates indicating a gap of approximately 60 aircraft needed to meet the projected fleet capacity demand by 2027 [4] - The largest cargo aircraft in China, the Y-20, has a maximum takeoff weight of 220 tons and a payload capacity of 66 tons, while Boeing's 747-8F has a maximum payload capacity of 133 tons [4] - The performance of Chinese cargo aircraft is hindered by insufficient engine power, necessitating significant improvements in aviation engine technology to compete with Boeing [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of the US-China trade war leading to supply chain risks for key components, China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) aims to establish a significant presence in the global aviation manufacturing industry, as demonstrated at the 55th Paris Air Show [1]. Group 1: Product Development and Market Positioning - COMAC showcased its aircraft models including C909, C919, and C929 at the Paris Air Show, despite not bringing a real C-series aircraft as speculated [2]. - The C919 and C909 have commenced commercial operations in China and parts of Southeast Asia, with a total of 20 C919 and 165 C909 aircraft delivered to date [2][6]. - The C929, currently in the design phase, is expected to have a range of approximately 12,000 kilometers and a seating capacity of 280 [3]. Group 2: International Collaboration and Supply Chain Challenges - COMAC signed memorandums of understanding with Safran and Crane Company for the C929 project, focusing on key systems development [3]. - The trade war has led to a more cautious approach in international collaborations, with companies reluctant to disclose specific details of their partnerships [3][4]. - The US Department of Commerce has suspended certain export licenses to COMAC, restricting the sale of critical technologies [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - COMAC is developing a longer version of the C919 to compete with Airbus's A321 series, which has become increasingly popular among airlines [6][7]. - The C919's potential expansion in passenger capacity could enhance its competitiveness against established models like the A220 series from Airbus [8][9]. - According to COMAC's market forecast, approximately 43,863 new aircraft are expected to be delivered globally by 2043, valued at around $6.6 trillion, with Chinese airlines projected to receive 9,323 of these aircraft, worth about $1.4 trillion [10].

Summary of China Eastern Airlines Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic aviation market shows strong demand with an overall passenger load factor reaching 89.02%, an increase of approximately 3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] - The international routes, particularly to Europe, have performed exceptionally well, with passenger kilometer revenue increasing by 35% and load factors above 85% [2][5] - The airline industry is expected to see an overall profit growth of about 8% in 2025, with domestic markets contributing 4% and international markets 15% [2][8] Key Points and Arguments - **Ticket Price Trends**: Ticket prices before the summer travel season in 2025 are expected to rise significantly compared to 2019, reflecting optimistic market expectations [2][3] - **Domestic Revenue Recovery**: Domestic passenger kilometer revenue decline has narrowed to 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend since March [4][10] - **Capacity Expansion Plans**: China Eastern Airlines plans to introduce 60 new aircraft in 2025 while retiring 26, and expects international capacity to grow by approximately 25% [4][13] - **Operational Strategy**: The airline aims to enhance its operational strategy by focusing on long-haul, emerging markets, and international routes, avoiding price wars and low-cost competition [4][22] Additional Important Insights - **Short-Haul International Routes**: Southeast Asia and South Korea have shown improved load factors, with Southeast Asia reaching 82.53% and South Korea at 86.16% [6][8] - **Market Sensitivity**: The airline acknowledges the sensitivity of pricing to different demographics, particularly the elderly and younger travelers, which may affect pricing strategies [10][22] - **Hub Development**: China Eastern Airlines is enhancing its hub operations in Shanghai, aiming to increase market share in the Yangtze River Delta region [19][20] - **Impact of External Factors**: The airline's performance is influenced by external factors such as oil price fluctuations and the ongoing recovery from the pandemic [15][25] Conclusion China Eastern Airlines is positioned for growth in 2025, with a focus on expanding capacity, improving operational efficiency, and navigating the competitive landscape while maintaining a strategic approach to pricing and market development. The airline's proactive measures in response to market dynamics and consumer behavior will be crucial for its success in the upcoming summer travel season.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the military trade (military trade) industry, particularly in the context of the Middle East tensions and the implications for Chinese military trade development [1][2][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Middle East Tensions and Military Trade Demand**: The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to drive an increase in military trade demand globally. This situation presents opportunities for high-end military trade development in China [1][2]. - **China's Y-20 Transport Aircraft**: The Y-20 transport aircraft, produced by AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industrial Group, is highlighted for its unique production capacity among global aircraft of its weight class (200 tons). It can be modified for various military roles, which positions it favorably for value reassessment in military trade [1][3][8]. - **Philihua's Position in High-End Quartz Glass Materials**: Philihua is recognized as a leading producer of high-end quartz glass materials, with significant applications in high-speed PCB boards and semiconductor processing. The company is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends in the semiconductor industry [1][5][20]. - **Upcoming Surge in Military Industry**: The military industry is anticipated to experience a surge in activity around August and September, based on trends in component order data. This period is expected to see a significant increase in military trade orders [6][22]. - **Investment Recommendations**: It is recommended to overweight stocks related to ammunition consumption, such as Aerospace Electric, Philihua, and New Ray Energy, as well as platform component companies [1][7][22]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Competitive Advantage**: The Y-20's production capacity provides a competitive edge in meeting military trade demands, with military products generally offering higher pricing and profitability compared to domestic equipment sales [8][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The military trade market in the Middle East has historically accounted for nearly 30% of global military trade orders, with each escalation in regional conflict leading to significant order expansions [14][15]. - **Future Projections for Military Aircraft**: The current ratio of combat aircraft to support aircraft in China is 3:1, which is expected to shift to 1:1 in the future, indicating potential growth in the market for support aircraft [19]. - **Philihua's Expansion Plans**: Philihua is expanding its product matrix in the semiconductor field and is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with plans to reach a production capacity of $3-4 billion by 2030 [20][21]. Conclusion - The records indicate a positive outlook for the military trade industry, particularly for Chinese companies like AVIC Xi'an and Philihua, amidst rising global military demand driven by geopolitical tensions. The anticipated market dynamics and strategic recommendations suggest a favorable investment environment in the military sector.

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash of a Boeing 787-8 aircraft marks a significant failure for Boeing, breaking its safety record and highlighting deeper issues within the U.S. manufacturing sector, particularly in high-end manufacturing and the aerospace industry [5][9][11]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On June 12, 2025, a Boeing 787-8 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad Airport, resulting in the loss of all 242 passengers and crew on board, as well as five medical students on the ground [5]. - The aircraft, which had a service life of 11.5 years, was previously regarded as one of the safest wide-body aircraft, having transported over 1 billion passengers without any fatal accidents [7][9]. Group 2: Manufacturing Decline Analysis - Boeing's reliance on outsourcing, with 70% of its components produced overseas, has led to a loss of control over its supply chain, contributing to systemic quality issues [11][13]. - The company has faced significant quality control problems with its key supplier, Spirit AeroSystems, leading to multiple incidents of component failures and operational issues [15][19]. - Financial strategies focused on stock buybacks and dividends have resulted in a drastic reduction in research and development investment, compromising safety and innovation [17][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Boeing's market share in China has plummeted from 75% in 2018 to 40.8% in 2025, while Airbus has increased its share to 52.2%, and COMAC is gaining traction with over 1,500 orders for its C919 aircraft [23][25]. - The shift in the global aerospace manufacturing landscape is evident as competitors like Airbus and COMAC focus on integrated supply chains and continuous R&D investment, contrasting with Boeing's financial maneuvering [27][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Boeing's new CEO is attempting to implement a restructuring plan, including selling its digital aviation business and promising to localize its supply chain, but faces significant challenges, including regulatory hurdles and negative cash flow [29][32]. - The decline of Boeing serves as a cautionary tale for the U.S. manufacturing sector, emphasizing the need for a balance between financial performance and maintaining technological integrity [35][39].