Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic large aircraft industry chain's self-control is urgent, with vast market space. China's commercial aircraft global market share exceeds 20%, and the C919 production capacity is continuously expanding. By 2042, the global passenger aircraft fleet is expected to reach 48,455 units, approximately 2.2 times that of 2022, with China's fleet reaching 9,969 units, accounting for 21% [2][51]. - The demand for new commercial aircraft in China over the next 20 years (2023-2042) is projected to exceed 9,000 units, corresponding to a market value of $1.4 trillion [2]. - The C919's production capacity is set to reach 150 units per year by 2027 and 200 units per year by 2029, with plans for accelerated operations in Southeast Asia and positive progress in European airworthiness [2][18]. - The engine system, referred to as the "heart" of large aircraft, has a high technical content and value, with engine maintenance costs expected to match procurement costs over their lifecycle. The demand for new commercial engines in China over the next 20 years may exceed $600 billion, averaging over 200 billion RMB annually [2][25]. - The onboard systems are of high value, and China is transitioning from "having" to "good" in this area, with significant development plans in place [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Development Status of China's Civil Aircraft Industry - The C919 has achieved commercial-scale operations, and the C929 is making positive progress [8]. - The development of large aircraft in China has gone through several stages, with the C919 being the first domestically developed jet airliner with independent intellectual property rights [12]. 2. Review of Boeing and Airbus Development - The report reviews the historical development of Boeing and Airbus, providing insights into their growth patterns and strategies, which may serve as references for China's large aircraft industry [32][41]. 3. Market Demand and Supply - The global demand for passenger aircraft is expected to grow, with China projected to maintain a 21% market share by 2042. The report anticipates a total of 43,644 new aircraft deliveries globally over the next 20 years, with a market value of approximately $6.5 trillion [51][53]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the industry, including materials, structures, engines, onboard systems, and total assembly, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [4]. 5. Engine Development Progress - The CJ-1000 and CJ-2000 engines are under development, with the CJ-1000 entering the airworthiness certification phase. The report emphasizes the importance of these engines for the C919 and C929 aircraft [25][27]. 6. Aviation Material Supply and Demand - The aviation material market in China is heavily reliant on imports, with a significant need for domestic production to meet the demands of over 4,000 existing civil aircraft [22][24]. - The aviation material management industry is projected to grow, with the market size reaching 1,601 billion RMB in 2023 [24]. 7. Future Outlook - The report indicates that the domestic large aircraft industry is on the verge of historic development opportunities, driven by external changes, national policies, and funding support [4].

行业报告 | 行业点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 国防军工 证券研究报告 大飞机产业链自主可控或迫在眉睫，市场空间广阔 王泽宇 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523070002 wangzeyu@tfzq.com 赵博轩 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525020002 zhaoboxuan@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 38% 46% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 国防军工 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《国防军工-行业专题研究:世界百年 大变局下的中国军贸：改革→突破→崛 起》 2025-03-20 2 《国防军工-2025 航空航天与防务投 资策略——周期与改革：面向十五五新 采 购 周 期 ， 迎 接 装 备 体 系 变 革 》 2025-02-04 事件：2025 年 4 月 14 日，越南总理在河内会见中国商飞董事长时提出，希 望中国商飞深化与越南合作，支持越 ...