Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually returning, and stock index futures are expected to oscillate and rebound. However, further breakthroughs require volume support, and market sentiment is expected to turn cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly moving in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - With the improvement of market risk appetite, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel in the non - ferrous metal sector are expected to be strong in the short term, while the long - term pattern of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged [1]. - Gold prices may remain strong in the short term, but the strong GDP growth in the third quarter of the United States weakens the expectation of interest rate cuts, so volatility risks need to be vigilant. Silver, platinum, and palladium are still favored by macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors, but short - term volatility risks also exist [1]. - For the black sector, after the release of negative news, coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage and replenishment [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and other products are under pressure, while the cotton market is currently in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of PTA are expected to be strong, while the prices of ethylene glycol, PVC, and other products are under pressure due to factors such as supply and demand and cost [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Oscillate and rebound in the short term, but further breakthroughs require volume support, and mainly move in an oscillatory manner by the end of the year [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: With the improvement of market risk appetite, prices are strong [1]. - Aluminum: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals improve, cost center rises, and prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Nickel: Although global inventory is high, due to supply concerns and Indonesian policies, prices may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel [1]. - Stainless steel: With the improvement of raw material nickel prices, futures prices continue to rebound, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry's initiative, prices oscillate and weaken in the short term, but low - buying opportunities can be considered [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Prices reach a new high and may remain strong in the short term, but volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Silver: Macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks exist [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May maintain a long - position pattern in the short term, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. Black sector - Steel products: After the release of negative news, coal and coke show signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to winter storage and replenishment [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, while far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Silicon iron: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are supported, valuation is low, and prices fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downward space and may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: High - frequency data improves, but the origin is expected to be loose, and rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, prices are weak [1]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Wheat and corn: Market supply and demand tension eases, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is备货 demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the futures price [1]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are weak, Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and domestic futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and chemical sector - Crude oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions, prices oscillate [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, profit is high, and prices oscillate [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, with a possible trend of inventory accumulation [1]. - PTA: PX prices are strong, polyester production and sales improve, and prices are expected to be strong [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Prices fall due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1]. - Styrene: Cost is slightly supported, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is cost support [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and prices oscillate in a range [1]. - Caustic soda: Some production delays, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in Shandong [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (PG): After a price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1]. Other - Container shipping on the European route: The price increase in December fails to meet expectations, the peak - season price increase is pre - priced, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].