以往裁员大致分为两类：一类受投资者欢迎，另一类则遭市场冷遇。前者通常伴随某种 " 战略性重组 " 宣布，往往能推动股价上涨；而若裁员是因销售下滑或成本上升所致，投资者便会抛售股票。 但近期，高盛（ Goldman Sachs ）分析师注意到一个新变化。 高盛分析师指出，最直接的原因是投资者不再相信公司的说辞。他们发现，近期宣布裁员的公司 " 今年 在资本支出、债务和利息费用增速上均高于同行业可比公司，而利润增速却更低 " 。这意味着裁员 " 可 能实际上源于更令人担忧的原因，例如为抵消利息成本上升和盈利能力下降而不得不削减开支 " 。 这一动向尤为值得玩味，因为过去几个月来，炫耀裁员规模和 AI 完成工作的比例已成某种风潮，仿佛 是企业首席执行官（尤其是科技行业）展示其全力押注 AI 的 " 实力宣言 " 。 亚马逊（ Amazon ）的安迪 · 贾西（ Andy Jassy ）、塔吉特（ Target ）首席运营官迈克尔 · 菲德尔克（ Michael Fiddelke ，将于二月出任首席执行官）以及摩根大通（ JPMorgan Chase ）首席财务官杰里米 · 巴纳姆（ Jeremy Barnum ）等 ...

市场调整期的裁员方向值得关注。 2025年10月16日，雀巢宣布，计划在今后两年内削减约1.6万个工作岗位，相当于其员工总数的6%。具 体来看，该次裁员将涉及约1.2万个白领职位，覆盖所有职能和地区。另有约4000个岗位将通过在生产 与供应链领域持续推进的生产力提升举措达成。 12月23日，有媒体发布了对雀巢新任首席执行官费耐睿（Philipp Navratil）的专访，费耐睿谈到了裁员 问题。 "这确实比自然减员更多。我们评估了多个流程，例如内部管理报告或采购流程，看看如何更高效运 作。我们还集中了一些服务，例如市场营销。以奈斯派索为例，我不会为每个市场都拍一部乔治·克鲁 尼的广告片，而是只会拍一次，然后在各个市场将其本地化。我们把资源更多投入到销售团队，而不是 重复劳动。"他说。 费耐睿的潜台词或许是，市场营销板块是该次裁员的重点区域，销售板块则显得相对稳定。 最新财报显示，在今年前9个月，雀巢集团的总销售额为659亿瑞士法郎，同比下降1.9%。有机增长率 为3.3%，所有大区和全球直管业务均实现正增长。实际内部增长率增至0.6%，定价贡献率稳定在 2.8%。汇率变动带来了5.4%的负面影响，净收购则带来 ...

这位经济学家补充说，他的团队预计特朗普政府在2026年中期选举临近之际不会实施新的关税。然而， 分析师们也强调，他们认为企业并未结束涨价。 该行维持其基准观点，即现有关税将在2026年初将核心通胀推高至3%，消费品成本中已经可以看到迹 象。 Gapen写道，"从6月到9月的月度CPI通胀率来看，受关税直接影响较大的CPI和PCE分项都出现了明显的 增长。" 摩根士丹利的分析还发现，企业已经开始收回在2025年初因受关税影响而损失的部分资金。这是一个充 满希望的发展，特别是因为该行预测许多公司可以在提高价格的同时仍保留大部分客户群。 美国目前的就业市场非常残酷，而且人们越来越担心2026年可能会出现更多裁员。然而，摩根士丹利表 示，许多公司或许能够避免不得不削减人手。 该行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen及其团队在周二写道，美国经济或许能够避免大规模裁员，但这 只有在公司继整个2025年提价后，在2026年继续提高价格的情况下才有可能。 裁员增加和通胀粘性是2025年的美国两大宏观主题。根据Gapen及其团队的说法，随着关税压力的显 现，企业在今年早些时候选择了减少招聘和缩减人员编制，以避免提高价格。 ...

不过，假设政府不再推进关税政策，Gapen指出，大部分关税转嫁到最终消费者价格上的影响应该已经 完成。他写道，"总的来说，我们的预期是通胀趋于稳定，盈利能力基本恢复，经济避免裁员。" 他补充说，他的团队预计，随着2026年中期选举的临近，特朗普政府不会实施新的关税。然而，分析师 们也强调，他们认为企业尚未停止提价。 该行维持其基本观点，即现有关税将推动核心通胀率在2026年初达到3%，消费品价格已经出现了这种 迹象。报告称，"6月至9月的月度消费者价格通胀率出现了明显的上涨，其中CPI和PCE中受关税影响较 大的组成部分有所增加。" 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen最新表示，美国经济或许能够在2026年 避免大规模裁员，但前提是企业在2025年已经提价的基础上，继续提高价格。 他在最新报告中表示，最新的GDP数据显示，企业已经"通过推高产出价格，朝着收回关税成本迈出了 重要一步"，这有助于恢复盈利能力，缓解衰退风险。而根据该投行的调查，美国企业已计划在2026年 进一步提高价格以应对关税。 这位分析师进一步指出，"关税在过去两个季度大幅推高了非劳动力成本"， ...

The Federal Reserve is flying partially blind heading into Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting as the White House is keeping some of the key data a secret. Last month, the government announced that it is canceling October’s employment report due to the government shutdown. On Dec. 8, the Bureau of Labor Statistics shared that it will also skip the October wholesale-price inflation report. Worst layoff years through November 2025 2020: 2.23 million 2001: 1.96 million 2002: 1.37 million ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（12月4日）震荡收跌，开盘价4216.28美元/盎司，最高价4225.12美元/盎司，最低价4174.95美元/ 盎司，收盘价4207.46美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数环比大降53.4%至7.1321万人，前值15.3074万人；美国上周初请失业金人数录得 19.1万人，为2022年9月24日当周以来新低，不及市场预期的22万人。 分析称，本周数据恰逢感恩节假期，存在因人们未及时提交申请而导致数字被显著低估的极大风险。业内联系 人指出，在历史上，日历构成相似的年份，该数据通常也会低于20万人。因此，如果下周数据出现反弹，无需 感到意外。四周移动平均值受此影响被拉低至21.47万人。持续领取失业金人数反映的是感恩节前一周的情 况，该数据延续了近期下降趋势，降至193.9万人，为10月初以来的最低水平。与此同时，Revelio Labs报告显 示，11月美国就业岗位预计净减少约9000个，裁员主要集中在零售贸易、休闲娱乐和制造业；就业增长则来自 教育/医疗以及公共管理领域。这暗示，11月的非农就业总人数可能为负值。芝加哥联邦储备银行最终发布的 11月实时失业率预测 ...

Group 1 - Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. dropped to 191,000 last week, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised total of 218,000, and below Wall Street's estimate of 221,000 [1][2] - This marks the lowest number of applications since March 30, 2023, when 191,000 jobless claims were reported [2] - Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.93 million, down 15,000 from the previous week [2] Group 2 - Planned job cuts in November totaled just over 71,000, a significant decline from approximately 153,000 job cuts in October [3] - The total number of job cuts for 2023 rose to 1.17 million, the highest level since 2020 [3] - Restructuring plans, closures, and market or economic conditions were cited as the main reasons for layoffs, with tariffs accounting for over 2,000 cuts in November [3]

责任编辑：刘明亮 据职业介绍公司Challenger， Gray & Christmas的数据，美国企业宣布的裁员数量在10月激增后于上月有 所回落，但仍为过去三年来同期最高水平。 该机构周四表示，企业在11月宣布裁员71321人。这个数字约为前月的一半，美国企业10月宣布的裁员 规模是二十多年来同期最高水平。 裁员计划在上个月减少，当然是一个积极信号，"该公司首席营收官Andy Challenger表示。但他表示， 这一数字较上年同期增长24%，并且标志着自2008年以来第三次出现11月裁员计划超过7万人的情况。 推荐阅读：裁员潮蔓延至老牌企业 美国就业市场朔风凛冽 这是美联储下周召开年内最后一次议息会议前看到的最后几份劳动力市场报告之一。投资者普遍押注决 策者将再次降息。然而，官员们对未来政策路径罕见地存在明显分歧，许多官员仍倾向于维持高利率以 抑制通胀。 除了裁员公告，该公司还表示，今年的招聘计划较2024年同期下降35%。年迄今的招聘计划为2010年以 来最低。这包括季节性招聘，Challenger指出，上月没有宣布新的假日招聘计划。 电信业11月的计划裁员数量居前，主要由Verizon推动。科技、食 ...

Investment Dynamics - The coffee brand "Bixing Coffee" has completed a Series B financing round of several tens of millions, led exclusively by Suzhou Agricultural Development Industry Science and Technology Innovation Fund. The funds will be used for expanding offline stores and brand promotion [1][3] - The Snow League, a professional winter sports league founded by Shaun White, has raised $15 million in financing, with new investors including 359 Capital, BITKRAFT Ventures, and WISE Ventures. This funding will support the league's first season bonuses and athletes [5] - Zhejiang Ruiwei New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has completed its third round of equity financing, with investment from the Beautiful Navigation Fund, co-established by L'Oréal and Tiantu Capital. The company focuses on biodegradable materials in the consumer sector [6][7] Brand Dynamics - Prada Group's acquisition of Versace is set to finalize on December 2, with a cash transaction based on a €1.25 billion valuation, which is only 1.33 times Versace's projected $1.03 billion revenue for FY2024, significantly lower than the typical luxury industry valuation of 3 to 5 times [8][10] - The founder of high-end sports fashion brand MooRER has repurchased a 25% stake from Joeone, regaining 100% ownership of the brand, which will now refocus on its high-end niche positioning [12][13] - Katjes Group is in talks to acquire Unilever's snack brand Graze for approximately £35 million, significantly lower than the £150 million Unilever paid in 2019 [14][16] - Nestlé plans to merge its infant nutrition business units in China, which is expected to create new growth opportunities by leveraging the strengths of both brands [18][19] - Beyond Meat has quietly closed its flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms in China, with its factory in Jiaxing ceasing production, primarily due to a small local vegetarian market and high product pricing [22] - Swire Group has laid off about 10% of its Hong Kong headquarters staff, affecting around 40 employees, as part of a restructuring to enhance efficiency [24] - Gao Xin Retail has appointed Li Weiping as the new CEO, marking the third CEO change in two years since the acquisition by Dehong [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Swire Group's Hong Kong headquarters has laid off approximately 10% of its staff, affecting around 40 employees across departments such as sustainability, finance, and risk management, including the head of sustainability, Mark Harper [1][2]. Group 1: Company Restructuring - The recent layoffs mark the first significant job cuts at Swire Group's headquarters in years, as the company aims to enhance overall efficiency and streamline processes [2]. - Swire Group, established in 1816, operates in five major sectors: real estate, aviation, beverages, marine services, and trading, employing over 121,000 people globally, with more than 500 at its Hong Kong headquarters [2]. Group 2: Real Estate Performance - Swire Properties' retail business has shown signs of recovery, with all three core shopping centers in Hong Kong maintaining a 100% occupancy rate and experiencing varying degrees of sales growth as of the end of September [2]. - Specific sales growth figures include a 3.6% increase for Taikoo Place, 3% for Taikoo City, and 0.2% for Cityplaza [2]. Group 3: Mainland Market Activity - The retail market in mainland China is more vibrant, with notable sales growth reported: 41.9% for Shanghai's Xinyi Taikoo Hui, 7.8% for Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and 5.6% for Shanghai's Qiantan Taikoo Li [3]. Group 4: Office Property Challenges - The office property segment remains weak, with rental rates declining by 13% at Taikoo Place and 15% at Taikoo Square [5]. - As of the end of September, the overall office occupancy rate in Hong Kong was 92%, down from 93% in 2024, with Taikoo Square's occupancy dropping from 93% to 90% [5]. Group 5: Financial Performance - Swire Properties reported a significant fair value loss of HKD 4.68 billion in investment properties for the first half of the year, compared to HKD 879 million in the same period last year, primarily due to the Hong Kong office portfolio [6]. - Despite the challenges, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 8.723 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, while the attributable recurring profit decreased by 4% to HKD 3.42 billion [6]. - This marks the first time in 15 years that Swire Properties has reported a loss in interim attributable profit, although the sale of multiple properties in Miami contributed to a 15% increase in basic earnings to HKD 4.42 billion [8].