行 业 研 华福证券 商贸零售 2026 年 03 月 05 日 商贸零售 究 2025 四季度奢侈品财报回顾：奢侈品行业回暖与 挑战并存 投资要点： 奢侈品行业复苏延续，中国市场边际持续改善 行 业 定 期 报 告 2025 年四季度，奢侈品行业整体延续三季度的回暖趋势，多个奢 侈品集团的财报显示继续实现稳步增长。尽管行业面临外部宏观压力， 包括汇率波动和全球经济不确定性，整体的消费需求仍显示出较为明 显的复苏势头。 品类端：珠宝腕表品类引领增长，酒水品类承压 从品类端来看，按固定汇率计算，珠宝腕表品类四季度增速领先， 较三季度增幅扩大明显，其次为运动成衣品类、香化品类以及皮具以 及成衣鞋履品类，四季度均保持正增长。最后为酒类品类则显著承压， 下滑幅度较大。 区域端：大中华区持续修复，美洲市场增速放缓 从分区市场来看，按固定汇率计算，美洲市场同比增速最快，但 增速放缓明显，其次为亚太（除日本外）市场、日本市场；最后为欧 洲市场，同比增速为 0.3%，且较三季度有所放缓。此外，针对中国市 场，多个奢侈品集团管理层明确持有积极态度。 业绩展望：保持谨慎乐观态度，聚焦增长质量以及盈利改善 针对未来业绩，大部分奢侈 ...

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's financial performance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, continues to be impacted by the industry's cyclical downturn, with total revenue declining by 5% to €80.8 billion, operating profit down 9% to €17.755 billion, and net profit down 13% to €10.878 billion, primarily due to poor performance in the fashion and leather goods segment [2][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, LVMH's revenue decreased by 5.1% year-on-year to €22.72 billion, although organic revenue grew by 1%, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth after two quarters of decline [4] - The fashion and leather goods segment saw organic sales decline by 3% in Q4, a worsening from the 2% decline in Q3, while the perfume and cosmetics segment fell by 1% [4] - The watch and jewelry segment, along with premium retail businesses like DFS and Sephora, performed well with organic revenue growth of 8% and 7% respectively in Q4, exceeding market expectations [4] Group 2: Segment Performance - For the full year 2025, the fashion and leather goods segment revenue fell by 8% to €37.77 billion, while the watch and jewelry segment saw a slight decline of 1% to €10.486 billion [5] - The perfume and cosmetics segment revenue decreased by 3% to €8.174 billion, and the wine and spirits segment revenue dropped by 9% to €5.358 billion [5] Group 3: Market Insights - The Asian market, particularly China, showed signs of improvement in the second half of 2025, with organic revenue growth of 1% in Q4, contrary to previous expectations of a decline [9] - The Japanese market experienced a 13% decline in organic revenue for the year, while the European market fell by 1%, and the U.S. market remained flat compared to the previous year [9] Group 4: Strategic Moves - LVMH's CEO Bernard Arnault announced the acquisition of additional shares in Loro Piana for approximately €1 billion, increasing the group's stake from 85% to 94%, with the family retaining 6% [7] - The company is focusing on maintaining product quality and scarcity while controlling the pace of expansion, as Loro Piana has shown rapid growth [7] Group 5: Industry Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing challenges due to rising living costs, geopolitical uncertainties, and weakened consumer confidence, which are suppressing global luxury spending [11] - The previous strategy of frequent price increases in the luxury sector is showing adverse effects, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and a potential shift in focus towards demand recovery and value reconstruction in 2026 [12]

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a resurgence, marked by a wave of new store openings in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, indicating a positive economic sentiment among consumers [1][3] - Despite the recovery signs, executives from major luxury groups remain cautious, highlighting ongoing uncertainties in the market [3][4] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific market has shown significant recovery, with notable performance differences between China and Japan [4] - Hermès reported a 15.2% year-on-year sales increase in Japan, while LVMH and Richemont faced declines in the same market [5][6] - Overall, luxury brands are seeing improved sales, with Hermès, Prada, and Richemont all reporting positive growth figures in recent quarters [6] Business Segmentation - Different product categories are showing varied performance, with leather goods remaining a stronghold for brands like Hermès, which saw a 12.6% increase in sales [11] - Jewelry sales have rebounded significantly, with Richemont's jewelry brands experiencing a 17% increase, driven by rising demand for investment-grade jewelry [14] - The beauty segment presents a mixed picture, with some brands expanding while others, like Kering, are divesting from beauty lines [16] Channel Strategy - Luxury brands are focusing on core markets and reducing presence in non-core areas, with a strategy of "grabbing big and letting go of small" [18][21] - Major brands are investing in flagship stores in key locations, such as Louis Vuitton's "Louis Number" in Shanghai, which has exceeded sales expectations [19][21] - There is a trend towards closing underperforming outlets in lower-tier cities to concentrate resources on more profitable areas [21] Marketing Approaches - Luxury brands are increasingly localizing their marketing strategies, engaging with local culture and consumers through collaborations and street-level activities [22][24] - The emphasis on cultural resonance is seen as a key advantage for local brands, with a significant percentage of consumers valuing cultural connection [25] Resource Integration - The luxury sector is witnessing a wave of acquisitions and investments in supply chains, with brands like Chanel and Hermès actively acquiring suppliers to strengthen their market position [26][28] - This trend reflects a broader strategy of vertical integration as brands seek to enhance their resilience and market influence during the recovery phase [29][32]

Core Insights - The luxury industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, particularly in China, where sales have turned positive for the first time this year, indicating renewed consumer interest in high-end fashion and experiences [1][3] - Demand in Europe and the United States remains solid, reflecting resilient local consumption despite a cautious global economic backdrop [2] - LVMH's modest growth in the third quarter of 2025 marks a potential turning point for the luxury sector, suggesting that the worst of the slowdown may be behind, although recovery will be gradual [3] Regional Performance - Mainland Chinese consumers are showing increased appetite for luxury goods, helping to offset earlier weaknesses and restore confidence in Asia's growth contribution [1] - There is a noticeable improvement in overall trends across Asia excluding Japan, indicating broader regional stabilization after months of uneven demand [2] Challenges Ahead - Despite returning to modest growth, LVMH faces several structural and cyclical challenges that may impact performance into 2026, including weaker demand for high-end products and rising operational costs [4] - Luxury brands have increased prices significantly between 2020 and 2023, with an average hike of 36%, which is now dampening demand among aspirational buyers [5] - Lowering prices is not a viable option for luxury brands, as it would erode brand prestige; instead, companies may maintain current pricing while waiting for income growth and easing inflation [6]

Core Insights - LVMH reported a resilient performance in Q3, with organic revenue growth of 1% year-on-year, reversing the decline seen in the first half of the year, particularly in the fashion and leather goods segment, which saw a reduced decline of 2% [1] - The Chinese market returned to positive growth, exceeding market expectations, as analysts had predicted flat overall sales and a 4% decline in the fashion and leather goods segment [1] - Following the earnings report, LVMH's stock surged by 12.22% to €597.9 per share, boosting its market capitalization to nearly €300 billion, reaffirming its position as the world's most valuable luxury goods company [1] Industry Performance - The stock prices of luxury goods companies rose significantly, with 25 out of 27 luxury stocks tracked by the "Huazhi Luxury Goods Index" increasing on October 15, 2023, and a total market value increase of nearly $70 billion [3][4] - Notable stock price increases included LVMH at 12.2%, Hermès at 7.4%, and Richemont at 6.3% [4] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts noted that the luxury goods sector has seen renewed interest from capital markets, with the sector experiencing a recovery for three consecutive months [5] - Bernstein analysts indicated that LVMH's performance reflects a combination of self-rescue measures and slightly positive demand from China, suggesting a potential U-shaped recovery [7] - RBC Capital Markets analysts rated LVMH stock as outperforming the market, highlighting stronger-than-expected organic revenue growth for Q3 2025 and a constructive outlook for the soft luxury segment in 2026 [7] - DWS's portfolio manager remarked that the sales data provided positive surprises for investors, likely sustaining upward momentum in the sector [7] Cautionary Notes - Some analysts cautioned against prematurely declaring a full industry rebound, with Jefferies questioning whether LVMH's early signs of recovery could be misinterpreted as a broader industry revival [8] - UBS projected a 4% organic growth in global luxury goods sales for the following year, with acceleration expected only in the second half of 2026 as new creative directors' collections begin to hit stores [8] Wealth Impact - Bernard Arnault's family wealth increased significantly, rising by $19.1 billion to $179.9 billion, making him the seventh richest person globally and the wealthiest non-American [8]

Core Insights - LVMH's sales increased by 1% in Q3, marking the first quarter of growth this year, driven by improved demand in China [1][5] - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a prolonged slump, but LVMH's performance offers some relief [1][7] Sales Performance - LVMH reported quarterly sales of 18.28 billion euros ($21.17 billion), surpassing expectations of flat sales [5] - The fashion and leather goods division, which includes brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw a 2% decline compared to the previous year, but this was an improvement from a 9% drop in Q2 [4][6] Regional Trends - Notable improvement in sales trends was observed in Asia, particularly in mainland China, which turned positive in Q3 [2] - The CFO indicated that the luxury market in Asia, excluding Japan, showed "noticeable" improvement [2] Market Challenges - LVMH faces challenges in Q4, including unfavorable currency rates and ongoing economic uncertainty [2] - The luxury sector has been impacted by price hikes and economic factors such as tariffs and the real estate crisis in China [7][8] Investor Sentiment - LVMH's U.S. shares rose by 7.5% following the positive trading update, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards the luxury sector [4]

Group 1 - The luxury goods industry is showing initial signs of stabilization after experiencing demand slowdown and valuation declines, suggesting that the worst phase may be coming to an end [1] - Swatch AG's CEO Nick Hayek reported early signs of improvement in key markets, while Burberry's same-store sales fell only 1%, outperforming analyst expectations of a 3.7% decline, leading to a 6.6% surge in its stock price [1][2] - LVMH's upcoming financial report is expected to be disappointing, particularly due to weak performance in key categories like leather goods, which may hinder the industry's recovery pace [1][2] Group 2 - There is a significant disparity in performance among luxury brands, with Brunello Cucinelli SpA reporting an 11% sales increase in Q2, while LVMH has become one of the weakest performers due to consumer fatigue in its leather goods segment [2] - Burberry's better-than-expected results are partly attributed to a low base effect from a 21% sales drop in the same period last year [2] Group 3 - Some investors believe that the valuations of certain luxury brands have already absorbed pessimistic expectations, with LVMH's forward P/E ratio around 19.5, close to its five-year average low [3] - However, not all luxury stocks appear cheap, as Hermes has a P/E ratio of about 50 times, reflecting strong demand for its star products [3] Group 4 - Although the most severe phase of decline may be nearing its end, a full recovery in the luxury goods sector is still a distant prospect, with upcoming fashion weeks expected to provide more direction [4] - Brands that can accurately gauge consumer changes and effectively execute their strategies are likely to stand out in this differentiated recovery [4]