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流动性:流动性税期资金波动怎么看?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-16 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's operations in August are more optimistic than in June. In terms of timing, the purchase - style reverse repurchase was timely, and there was better coordination with fiscal policies. In terms of quantity, the net purchase - style reverse repurchase in August was more than in June, and there was no withdrawal of 6 - month liquidity. The net injection during the tax period was also higher than in June. The funds' central price has declined compared to June [3][16]. - Looking forward, considering the historical low of credit in July, the negative month - on - month growth of social retail and investment in July, the downward trend of bill rates, and the continuous increase in government bond issuance, the central bank will maintain a suitable financial environment, and liquidity can remain optimistic. There is no need to worry about "preventing idle capital circulation" as the central bank focuses on standardizing bank loans rather than raising capital rates [3][21]. - For certificates of deposit (CDs), the net financing of state - owned banks' CDs turned negative again last week. Under the central bank's support, the supply side is not a constraint. The secondary - market trading volume has continued to shrink, and yields have fluctuated within a narrow range. Institutions mostly adopt a configuration strategy. The supply - side pressure is relatively limited, and considering the low - level funds, the configuration value of CDs above 1.65% is not low. CDs may perform well when risk appetite declines and interest rates return to the fundamental logic [23]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Keep an Optimistic Judgment on Funds - Last week, except for the last trading day, the weighted DR001 funds price remained at 1.31%, and state - owned banks' net lending remained high. The bond market adjusted, non - banks reduced leverage, and the overall stratification was at a low level [9]. - There are two key points to note in the past week: First, during the monetary - fiscal coordination period, the central bank maintains relatively stable liquidity, and more optimistic capital conditions are more likely to occur during the initial issuance of long - term bonds. Second, the marginal tightening of funds on August 15 was a normal tax - period fluctuation. Medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose, and based on the fundamentals and the central bank's operating style, one can remain optimistic about funds [15][16]. 3.2 Weekly Funds and CDs Tracking and Key Point Reminders - This week (August 11 - 15), the central bank's OMO had a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan, with 7 - day OMO funds of 7118 billion yuan issued and 11267 billion yuan withdrawn. There was a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month purchase - style reverse repurchase operation. The government bond had a net financing of 2069 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 97439 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 70.3%, and a net payment of 4344 billion yuan. Large banks' bill - buying efforts remained strong, and bill rates generally declined. The RMB was stable against the US dollar, and the central bank's counter - cyclical regulation demand was stable. In terms of funds, state - owned banks' lending ability was strong, and the leverage of some institutions changed [29]. - Next week (August 18 - 22), short - term funds of 7118 billion yuan will mature, and there will be 9000 - billion - yuan purchase - style reverse repurchase and 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturities. The government bond's net financing will be 4979 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 102418 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 73.9%, and a net payment of 2641 billion yuan. Attention should be paid to the central bank's support during the initial issuance of long - term government bonds on August 22 [29][30]. 3.3 Central Bank: 6 - Month Purchase - Style Reverse Repurchase Operation Implemented - This week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of short - term funds and carried out a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month purchase - style reverse repurchase operation. The OMO had a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan, with 7 - day OMO funds of 7118 billion yuan issued and 11267 billion yuan withdrawn. As of August 15, the reverse repurchase balance was 7118 billion yuan, down 4149 billion yuan from August 8, still higher than the seasonal level [32]. - Next week, 7118 billion yuan of short - term funds will mature, and there will be 9000 - billion - yuan purchase - style reverse repurchase and 3000 - billion - yuan MLF maturities in August [34]. 3.4 Government Bonds: Net Payment Declined to 264.1 Billion Yuan - This week, the government bond's net financing was 206.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 9743.9 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 70.3%, and a net payment of 434.4 billion yuan. Next week, the net financing will be 497.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financing of 10241.8 billion yuan and a net financing progress of 73.9%, still at a seasonal high, and a net payment of 264.1 billion yuan [37]. - Structurally, the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated. The net financing progress of national bonds is 72.0% (higher than the historical average), and the issuance progress of new local government general bonds, new local government special bonds, and special refinancing bonds are 73.0% (lower than the historical average), 69.0% (lower than the historical average), and 97.3% respectively [39]. 3.5 Bills: Large Banks' Bill - Buying Efforts Remained Strong, and Rates Generally Declined - This week, large banks' bill - buying efforts remained strong, and bill rates generally declined. As of August 15, the 3 - month and 6 - month national - share direct and transfer bill rates were 1.13%, 1.00%, 0.70%, and 0.68% respectively, down 11BP, 12BP, 7BP, and 7BP from August 8 [47][48]. 3.6 Exchange Rates: Stable During the Statistical Period, with the RMB Spot Exchange Rate at 7.18 - This week, the RMB was stable against the US dollar, with the USDCNH/USDCNY swap points around 1600/1700 points. The carry - trade strategy for short - term bonds by foreign investors has limited value. The central bank's counter - cyclical regulation demand was stable, with the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB dropping to 7.14 and the depreciation upper limit around 7.28, and the counter - cyclical factor narrowing to around 314.68 pip [50][52]. 3.7 Market Funds Supply and Demand: State - Owned Banks' Lending Continued to Increase - The central bank's second - round purchase - style reverse repurchase operation strengthened state - owned banks' lending ability. The bond market adjusted, money market funds increased lending, and non - banks reduced borrowing. The average daily lending of the banking system was 4.28 trillion yuan, and that of national - share banks increased to 5.10 trillion yuan. The average daily lending of state - owned banks recovered to 5.14 trillion yuan, while that of joint - stock banks decreased to - 0.04 trillion yuan [55]. - The average daily lending of (money market funds + wealth management subsidiaries) increased to 1.21 trillion yuan. Major non - bank institutions reduced borrowing. The leverage ratios of the inter - bank market, commercial banks, and insurance companies increased, while those of broad - based funds and securities companies decreased [59][63]. - In terms of funds prices, the increase in the R series > the DR series > the Shibor series > the GC series, indicating tight funds for banks and non - banks and relatively stable funds for money market funds. The term stratification narrowed, and the institutional stratification was basically flat, showing a mitigation of market stratification [69]. 3.8 CDs: Net Financing Turned Negative, and the Buying Efforts of Money Market Funds and Joint - Stock Banks Increased 3.8.1 Primary Issuance Market: The Success Rate of Fund - Raising Improved, and the Overall Net Financing of CDs Turned Negative - This week, the net financing of CDs was - 131.1 billion yuan, and the average issuance rate increased by about 1BP. In the next three weeks, 794.72 billion yuan, 751.78 billion yuan, and 330.05 billion yuan of CDs will mature respectively. This week, the issuance scale of national - share banks increased, but the net financing turned negative. The weighted issuance duration of CDs increased, and the success rate of long - term CD fund - raising improved [72][75]. - In terms of different terms, the weighted issuance duration of CDs increased to 8.12 months. The issuance proportion of 9 - month and 12 - month CDs increased significantly, and the success rate of fund - raising for most terms improved. The issuance rates of CDs of all terms decreased to varying degrees, with a larger decline in short - term national - share banks [78][83]. 3.8.2 Secondary Trading Market: Trading Activity Declined, and the Buying Efforts of Money Market Funds Increased Significantly - In terms of quantity, the trading activity of CDs continued to decline this week, and the yields increased. Joint - stock banks, money market funds, and other non - non - bank institutions had strong buying, while other institutions mostly bought at a steady pace. The 1 - year AAA CD yield reached 1.6400% [85][87].
存单周报:1.65%附近,关注配置价值-20250714
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-14 04:15
Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0707 - 0713): Near 1.65%, Focus on Allocation Value [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - end wealth management allocation overdraws the early - season market. When the 1y national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit are slightly priced up and approach 1.65%, their allocation cost - effectiveness can be considered [2][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing decline and shortening of term structure - This week (July 7 - July 13), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 42.713 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 8.339 billion yuan (from June 30 to July 6, it was - 0.282 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 19% to 25%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 40% to 23%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased from 73% to 58%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit narrowed to 8.88 months (the previous value was 9.75 months) [2][5]. - Next week (July 14 - July 20), the maturity scale will rise to 80.281 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 29.229 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 19.916 billion yuan and 41.892 billion yuan respectively, with 20.389 billion yuan maturing on the 17th [2][5]. Demand: State - owned banks increase allocation, and the primary market subscription rate declines - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and wealth management are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 5.4403 billion yuan and 6.8292 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of money market funds increased from 4.4696 billion yuan to 10.131 billion yuan [2][16]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to around 91%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 87% to 84%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 92% to 90%, state - owned banks maintained at 95%, and rural commercial banks maintained at 97% [16]. Valuation: Slight upward movement in primary and secondary pricing - Primary pricing: As funds tightened around the middle of the month, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased. Specifically, the 1M variety increased by 4bp, 3M and 9M increased by 2bp, 6M increased by 1bp, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 2bp, at the 19% historical quantile. The 1Y spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 12.03BP to 8.13BP, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 4.37BP to 5.99BP [2][20]. - Secondary yield: The secondary yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit increased. The 1M variety increased by 2bp, 3M increased by 3bp, and 6M, 9M, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit slightly widened, maintaining at the 17% historical quantile [2]. Comparison: Near 1.65%, focus on allocation value - The spread between medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit significantly compressed. The spread between the 1y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and the DR007:15DMA funds widened from 1.15BP to 6.49BP; the spread with R007:15DMA funds remained inverted, narrowing from - 8.47BP to - 2.44BP. The 1y treasury bond yield widened by 3.40bp, and the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly widened to 26.01BP, with the quantile rising from 6% to 7%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed from 14.69BP to 13.57BP, and the quantile dropped to around 7%. The spread between AAA medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit narrowed from 8.62BP to 4.30BP, and the quantile dropped to 15% [2][35].
存单周报:资金预期有所缓和,关注存单配置价值-20250608
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-08 12:45
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "【Bond Weekly Report】Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0602 - 0608): Funds Expected to Decline, Focus on Certificate of Deposit Configuration Value" [2] - Report Date: June 8, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Dong Yue, etc. - Related Research Reports: [21.16, 25.41, 29.73, 29.22] [10.56, 16.03, 20.43, 15.72] [13.41, 11.63, 9.69, 6.29] [6.28, 8.35, 1.92, 5.71] [10.62, 9.24] [2] Group 2: Supply Analysis - Supply Side: This week (June 2 - June 8), the net issuance of certificates of deposit was -2 to -4, and the spread changed by -2 to -7, etc. - Demand Side: The demand for certificates of deposit was 4.33, 0.00, 11.25, 0.00, etc., and the spread changed by -2 to -7, etc. - Overall Market: The overall market situation included various data such as 21.16, 25.41, etc. Group 3: Investment Suggestions - The report suggests paying attention to the configuration value of certificates of deposit and analyzing the changes in spreads and yields. - It also mentions the historical data and changes of spreads and yields, providing a reference for investment decisions.