1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again, and it is likely to maintain a bullish trend. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. Externally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, foreign funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4601.60, 4586.60, 4576.40, and 4555.00 respectively, with increases of 70.60, 73.20, 77.20, and 77.80. The trading volumes were 40430.00, 16606.00, 86223.00, and 12308.00, and the open interests were 35819.00, 24260.00, 160428.00, and 56592.00, with changes of - 9895.00, 5467.00, - 2013.00, and - 848.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 300 corresponding to these contracts were 1.56%, 1.62%, 1.72%, and 1.74% [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2999.40, 2998.20, 2997.40, and 2998.40, with increases of 41.00, 46.00, 44.40, and 44.60. The trading volumes were 17842.00, 6567.00, 41717.00, and 5176.00, and the open interests were 13703.00, 6914.00, 63594.00, and 13300.00, with changes of - 5392.00, 1526.00, - 1687.00, and - 796.00 respectively. The increases of the SSE 50 corresponding to these contracts were 1.39%, 1.56%, 1.50%, and 1.51% [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7278.20, 7196.20, 7140.20, and 6977.00, with increases of 118.40, 124.20, 121.60, and 120.00. The trading volumes were 38456.00, 19428.00, 105607.00, and 19123.00, and the open interests were 34255.00, 32793.00, 141518.00, and 52944.00, with changes of - 9786.00, 5875.00, - 10422.00, and - 2023.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 500 corresponding to these contracts were 1.65%, 1.76%, 1.73%, and 1.75% [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7455.80, 7362.60, 7275.20, and 7060.20, with increases of 117.60, 128.20, 126.60, and 134.20. The trading volumes were 55423.00, 28745.00, 178569.00, and 30417.00, and the open interests were 47911.00, 46218.00, 191595.00, and 84507.00, with changes of - 11189.00, 7939.00, - 2448.00, and - 280.00 respectively. The increases of the CSI 1000 corresponding to these contracts were 1.60%, 1.77%, 1.77%, and 1.94% [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 1.20, - 82.00, and - 93.20 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 25.20, - 3.60, - 87.40, and - 110.00 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4606.29, 3001.35, 7294.00, and 7483.45 respectively, with increases of 1.48%, 1.36%, 1.38%, and 1.50%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 284.77, 63.38, 217.56, and 244.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6073.26, 1571.06, 3974.59, and 4037.98 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the increases of energy, raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities were 0.32%, 1.18%, 1.98%, 1.49%, 0.45%, 1.77%, 1.06%, 2.75%, 1.11%, and - 0.20% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 4.69, - 19.69, - 29.89, and - 51.29 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 1.34, - 23.86, - 31.86, and - 52.86 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (far - quarter - SSE 50) were - 1.95, - 3.15, - 3.95, and - 2.95 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of 3.90, 0.30, - 2.70, and - 0.10 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 15.80, - 97.80, - 153.80, and - 317.00 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 41.45, - 128.85, - 184.85, and - 350.65 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 27.65, - 120.85, - 208.25, and - 423.25 respectively, compared to the previous two - day values of - 33.15, - 143.15, - 227.35, and - 451.15 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3912.21, 13118.75, 8106.60, and 3025.87 respectively, with increases of 1.22%, 1.73%, 1.77%, and 2.36% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 25910.60, 46847.32, 6671.06, and 24181.37 respectively, with increases of 1.84%, - 2.58%, 0.40%, and - 0.23% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The US side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and negotiation. China also opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices in the name of enhancing competitiveness [2] - In September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 reached a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month and returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - In September, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, and the average interest rate of newly issued personal housing loans was about 3.1%, about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Six departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities in three years, aiming to build 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - In September, the trading volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.7944 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, with a trading amount of 110.466 billion yuan [2] - Chengdu expanded the scope of beneficiaries of the "commercial - to - provident" loan policy,取消了本市缴存限制，符合条件的异地缴存人也可申请办理，and all commercial banks that have signed cooperation agreements with the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Center can participate [2]

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The investment recovery is expected to be challenging, with cumulative fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The anticipated timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with expectations that the new policies will not be as urgent as last year, given the current economic performance is better than in 2022 [25][26] - The direction of the new policies may include early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, and potential monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and business investments [25][26] Macro Depth Report - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to rise from -0.238 in August to between -0.216 and -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continuing upward trend in this correlation [27][28] - For portfolio management, it is suggested to allocate only 3% to 5% in stock indices to control maximum drawdown and volatility, with an optimal stock allocation ratio estimated between 18% and 21% [29] Industry Insights - The diesel generator market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53%. The market is driven by the increasing demand for backup power in data centers and other commercial facilities [21] - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint ventures, which account for 83% of the market share, indicating substantial room for domestic manufacturers to capture market share through local production and technological advancements [21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic manufacturers such as Weichai Power and Yuchai International, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand and potential for domestic substitution [21] Automotive Industry - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration rates to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments [19][20] - A comparative evaluation of ten intelligent driving suppliers indicates that advancements in driving capabilities are narrowing the gap between leading and emerging players, with significant improvements noted in the second tier of suppliers [19][20]

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [24][25] - The expected timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee being a critical window for policy announcements [24][25] - The direction of the new policies may include utilizing debt limits more effectively, introducing new policy financial tools, and increasing the likelihood of monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and corporate investments [24][25] Industry Insights - The small nucleic acid industry is seeing increased business development from multinational corporations, with significant potential in chronic diseases and liver-related fields. Companies to watch include Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Hotgen Biotech, and others with innovative technology platforms and rapid clinical progress [19] - The RF (Radio Frequency) industry is expected to experience significant growth, driven by the construction of 5G base stations. The global RF front-end market is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2025, with domestic demand exceeding 40% [21][22] - Domestic companies like Zhaosheng Microelectronics and Weijie Chuangxin are breaking international monopolies through technological innovation, particularly in LPAMiD modules and filters, which are becoming mainstream technologies [21][22] - The application of RF technology is expanding beyond 5G smartphones to include automotive ADAS, satellite communications, and AI edge applications, pushing the industry towards higher performance and integration [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has shown positive performance, with a rise of approximately 0.3%, driven by leading stocks such as Lianxu Electronics, Meiyingsen, and Longji Machinery. The ETF's trading volume exceeded 250 million yuan, indicating active trading in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" is becoming evident, leading to adjustments in asset allocation structures, a recovery in investment sentiment, and an improvement in risk-return ratios, which are expected to attract more funds into the capital market [1]. - There is a shift in resident assets from real estate to financial assets, with stock risk-adjusted returns outperforming bonds, and insurance funds having smooth access to the market, all contributing to this trend [1]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The free cash flow ETF (159201) closely tracks the National Certificate Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after screening for liquidity, industry, and ROE stability, resulting in a high-quality index with strong risk resistance suitable for long-term investment [1]. - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1].