Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [10][11] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters. If the growth rate for the fourth quarter exceeds 4.5%, the annual target of around 5.0% can be achieved [10][11] - The report anticipates that the new policies will focus on four areas: early use of debt limits, introduction of new policy financial tools, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to consumption policies to stimulate demand [10][11] Fixed Income - The issuance of the Jin 25 convertible bond is set at a total scale of 2 billion yuan, with net proceeds allocated for the Zambia Lubanbi copper mine project and related operational and capital expenditures. The bond has a maturity of six years and a yield to maturity of 2.46% [20] Industry Analysis - The insurance industry showed strong growth in life insurance premiums in August, while non-auto property insurance faced short-term pressure. The valuation of insurance stocks remains low, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57 and 0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02 and 2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [7] - The report highlights that the demand for savings remains robust, and with ongoing regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure on interest margins [7] Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the rise of independent energy storage in China, with significant demand growth expected in both domestic and international markets. The ongoing shortage of energy storage cells is projected to continue until the second half of 2026, with price increases anticipated [8] - Key companies recommended for investment in the energy storage sector include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, among others, due to their competitive advantages and profit growth potential [8]

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The investment recovery is expected to be challenging, with cumulative fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The anticipated timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with expectations that the new policies will not be as urgent as last year, given the current economic performance is better than in 2022 [25][26] - The direction of the new policies may include early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, and potential monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and business investments [25][26] Macro Depth Report - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to rise from -0.238 in August to between -0.216 and -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continuing upward trend in this correlation [27][28] - For portfolio management, it is suggested to allocate only 3% to 5% in stock indices to control maximum drawdown and volatility, with an optimal stock allocation ratio estimated between 18% and 21% [29] Industry Insights - The diesel generator market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53%. The market is driven by the increasing demand for backup power in data centers and other commercial facilities [21] - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint ventures, which account for 83% of the market share, indicating substantial room for domestic manufacturers to capture market share through local production and technological advancements [21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic manufacturers such as Weichai Power and Yuchai International, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand and potential for domestic substitution [21] Automotive Industry - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration rates to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments [19][20] - A comparative evaluation of ten intelligent driving suppliers indicates that advancements in driving capabilities are narrowing the gap between leading and emerging players, with significant improvements noted in the second tier of suppliers [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The correlation between stock and bond returns is a crucial factor in constructing multi-asset portfolios, with a specific focus on the "82 portfolio" consisting of 80% investment in the China Bond - National Debt Total Wealth Index and 20% in the CSI A500 Total Return Index [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Studying Stock-Bond Return Correlation - The correlation between stock and bond returns is essential for multi-asset portfolio construction, influencing expected returns and risk management [3]. - A Monte Carlo simulation of 100,000 paths over 120 months indicates that if the stock-bond return correlation increases from -0.6 to 0, the portfolio's volatility will rise from 3.15% to 4.35% [4][7]. - The Value at Risk (VaR) at a 95% confidence level will decrease from 2.72% to 2.02%, while the maximum drawdown over 12 months will increase from -4.80% to -5.72% [4][7]. Group 2: Periodicity of Stock-Bond Return Correlation - The stock-bond return correlation in China has shown significant periodic characteristics since 2010, with an overall upward trend from Q2 2022 to the present [12][13]. - The correlation has fluctuated, showing an upward trend from Q1 2010 to Q2 2017, a downward trend from Q3 2017 to Q1 2022, and a renewed upward trend since Q2 2022 [12][13]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Correlation - Economic growth and inflation are the two core factors affecting stock and bond returns, with growth having an inverse effect and inflation having a direct effect on both [18][19]. - The relationship can be expressed through a formula that incorporates growth and inflation factors, indicating that the stock and bond returns are influenced by these macroeconomic variables [19][20]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Future Predictions - The expected stock-bond return correlation for the period from September to November 2025 is projected to range between -0.216 and -0.229, indicating a continued upward trend [5][26]. - For managing maximum drawdown and volatility, a stock allocation of only 3% to 5% may be advisable, with a critical threshold for stock allocation between 18% and 21% [27][8].

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [24][25] - The expected timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee being a critical window for policy announcements [24][25] - The direction of the new policies may include utilizing debt limits more effectively, introducing new policy financial tools, and increasing the likelihood of monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and corporate investments [24][25] Industry Insights - The small nucleic acid industry is seeing increased business development from multinational corporations, with significant potential in chronic diseases and liver-related fields. Companies to watch include Yuyuan Pharmaceutical, Hotgen Biotech, and others with innovative technology platforms and rapid clinical progress [19] - The RF (Radio Frequency) industry is expected to experience significant growth, driven by the construction of 5G base stations. The global RF front-end market is projected to exceed $30 billion by 2025, with domestic demand exceeding 40% [21][22] - Domestic companies like Zhaosheng Microelectronics and Weijie Chuangxin are breaking international monopolies through technological innovation, particularly in LPAMiD modules and filters, which are becoming mainstream technologies [21][22] - The application of RF technology is expanding beyond 5G smartphones to include automotive ADAS, satellite communications, and AI edge applications, pushing the industry towards higher performance and integration [21][22]

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth-stabilizing policies is imminent [26][27] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters [26][27] - The policy direction includes utilizing debt limits, introducing new policy financial tools, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts to lower costs for homebuyers and businesses [26][27] Group 2: Stock and Bond Correlation - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to range from -0.216 to -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continued upward trend compared to August 2025 [28][29] - The relationship between economic growth and inflation significantly influences stock and bond returns, with economic growth typically having an inverse effect on stock and bond yields [28][29] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Robotaxi industry is identified as a key investment theme for the next five years, with a focus on the revenue-generating capabilities of AI vehicles [19][20] - The copper market is experiencing a supply tightness due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and disruptions in major mines, while demand is expected to increase as the holiday season approaches [21] - The aluminum market is seeing a slight increase in production capacity utilization, with expectations of price stability as demand rises during the peak season [21]