Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a mixed performance across various asset classes, with a notable recovery in commodities and a positive response from developed markets to eased trade tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In May 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Nasdaq > Nikkei > Hang Seng > LME Copper Futures > Euro Stoxx > ChiNext > CSI 300 > Hang Seng Tech > Brent Oil > 0 > China Bonds > US Dollar > Spot Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > South China Composite, with commodities showing upward trends since June [1][14]. - Developed markets outperformed emerging markets, with US tech stocks (TAMAMA index) rising by 11.4% and the DAX and Nikkei indices increasing by over 5% [2][18]. - The CRB index rose by 7.94% from the end of May to June 3, indicating a rebound in commodity prices [2][17]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators for May 2025 suggest a mild recovery in the domestic economy, with the BCI, EPMI, and manufacturing PMI slightly better than previous values [4][66]. - The high-frequency simulation model estimates the actual GDP monthly index for May at 5.19%, projecting a second-quarter GDP of around 5.2% [4][71]. - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.06%, indicating a need for improved production capacity and policy transmission [4][93]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: the "tariff theme," which reflects eased tariff risks; the "odds theme," indicating a stabilization of market lower limits; and the "structural certainty theme," focusing on stable sectors and financial assets [3][59]. - The domestic stock market continues to exhibit a "dumbbell" structure, with small and micro-cap stocks and large-cap value styles performing well [2][29]. - Over 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns in May, with finance and consumption leading the performance [2][39]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Future drivers for equity assets may include a return to historical patterns, with consumer assets showing both "odds and win rate" advantages [5][88]. - The market's lower limit has been raised following the easing of extreme trade conditions, with 71.8% of stocks closing above the 60-week moving average by the end of May [5][94]. - New thematic opportunities may arise from technological breakthroughs in key industries or new mid-term policy incentives expected around the end of July [5][95].

Core Viewpoints - The performance of major asset classes as of March 31, 2025, shows gold leading with a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 19.3%, followed by LME copper and crude oil, while the Chinese stock market remains relatively strong despite a high-low switch in structure [1][12][13]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of March 31, 2025, the ranking of major asset classes is gold > LME copper > crude oil > Hang Seng Index > 0 > CSI 300 > China bond > Euro index > Hang Seng Tech > US dollar > Nikkei > Dow Jones > NASDAQ [1][12]. - Gold reached a new high in March, with a YTD increase of 19.3% and a maximum drawdown of only 3%, indicating the best risk-reward ratio among major assets [1][12]. - The global stock indices continued a "risk-off" sentiment, with the US stock market experiencing a significant increase in the fear index, while the Chinese stock market showed a relatively strong performance [1][12][18]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The macro trading themes in March 2025 revolve around four core clues: the gradual confirmation of economic recovery, uncertainty in external tariffs, a continued "risk-off" sentiment in global risk assets, and heightened risk aversion leading to strong performance in gold and silver [2][62]. - The economic foundation is slowly confirming an upward trend, with cyclical assets and interest rate levels generally rising [2][62]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The domestic manufacturing PMI, service PMI, and construction PMI for March 2025 rose to 50.5%, 50.3%, and 53.4%, respectively, indicating a stable start to the first quarter [3][72]. - The model predicts a March CPI increase of -0.04% month-on-month and +0.27% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to be -0.09% month-on-month and -2.19% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in CPI and continued weakness in PPI [3][76][79]. Group 4: Future Drivers for Equity Assets - Upcoming economic data for the first quarter and more corporate earnings reports are expected to provide a verification period for macro and micro fundamentals, with a significant impact anticipated from the technology sector [4][96]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in April is expected to clarify economic impacts, while policy measures are likely to continue to heat up, providing a favorable window for potential interest rate cuts [4][96][97]. Group 5: Timing Signals - The "M1-BCI-PPI timing system" indicates an improvement in timing signals for the CSI 300 index from +0.169 to +0.353 for the period from mid-April to mid-May 2025, suggesting a positive outlook for equity assets [5][100]. - The stock-bond ratio has returned to a more normalized range, indicating that the previous extreme safety margins in the stock market have been consumed, and future performance will be more critical [6][9]. Group 6: Sector Performance - Approximately 55% of the 31 industries recorded positive returns in March, with cyclical and consumer sectors leading the gains, while previously high-performing technology sectors experienced corrections [40][47]. - The real estate market shows overall stability but with increasing structural differentiation, particularly in first-tier cities where transaction volumes are relatively high [47].