1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, copper prices declined with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 80,000 mark. The domestic market has cooled significantly, with obvious capital outflows in both the equity and commodity markets. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" arrive, industrial support will strengthen. Short - term attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, with the position volume continuously decreasing. The domestic market has cooled, and there are capital outflows in the equity and commodity markets. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum inventory is continuously increasing, while the aluminum rod inventory is slowly decreasing. As China enters the peak industrial seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average when the aluminum price drops [5]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices showed a downward trend today, with a slight decrease in the position volume. Non - ferrous metals generally declined at the macro level. At the industrial level, the impact of the demonstration in Indonesia has been digested by the market. In the short term, the weakening macro environment and the digestion of industrial disturbances have led to the decline of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4% compared with the previous week, and new orders also decreased by 0.81 percentage points. Currently, the industry has not shown signs of a peak season. Weak demand and high copper prices are intertwined, and both the operating rate and orders continue to decline [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,700 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper monthly spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [21][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the domestic bullish sentiment cooling and the US dollar index rebounding, copper prices are under pressure. The US tariff policy excluding refined copper and the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data have mixed impacts. Continued attention is needed on whether overseas markets trade on recession. In China, it's the off - season for the industry, and inventory reduction at low levels has slowed. Short - term Shanghai copper is at the July low, and technical support at this level should be monitored [2][56] - Aluminum: The domestic bullish sentiment has cooled, and aluminum prices have declined. The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has a relatively small impact on aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to whether overseas markets conduct recession trading. At the industrial level, it's the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising. In the short term, with macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, aluminum prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the July low - level technical support [3][56] Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: The non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly poor, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite [7] - Domestic: After the Politburo meeting, there was a strong willingness among bulls to close their positions [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trends - With the cooling of domestic bullish sentiment and the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices have been under pressure. The US tariff policy and non - farm payrolls data have had mixed impacts on copper prices [2][56] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Maintained at a Low Level - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [22] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Reduction Slowed - In the domestic off - season, the reduction of electrolytic copper inventory at low levels has slowed [2][27][56] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than the figure of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trends - The domestic bullish sentiment cooled, and aluminum prices declined. The impact of the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on aluminum prices was relatively small [3][56] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to bauxite port inventory and alumina price 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - In the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising [3][56] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory 4. Conclusion - Copper: Similar to the core view, copper prices are under pressure due to various factors, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [2][56] - Aluminum: Similar to the core view, aluminum prices are weak due to macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [3][56]