Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend in the night session yesterday, and the total position of coking coal remained basically flat compared with the previous period. As mines are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, the output of clean coal from mines decreased slightly last week. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal dropped from the high level but remained at the highest level in the same period. On the demand side, the hot metal output increased slightly this week, and the profitability rate of steel mills remained basically flat. In the last week before the festival, the downstream replenishment was basically completed, and the demand for steel products was at the "freezing point" of the whole year. Therefore, there is insufficient driving force for the current market, and the trend is volatile. After the festival, focus on the trend of hot metal output, the start - up situation of mines, and the policy trends on the import side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Trading Volume - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of different contract months of coking coal and coke decreased compared with the previous two days, with declines ranging from -0.17% to -0.31%. For example, the 1 - month contract of coking coal decreased by 3.5 from 1377.0 to 1373.5, a decline of -0.25% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of different contracts varied greatly, with the 5 - month contract having a trading volume of 528,830. The open interest also had different values, and the open interest of some contracts increased or decreased. For example, the open interest of a certain contract increased by 68 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different contract months changed. For example, the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts decreased by 431.5 to -83 [2]. Spot Price - **Spot Price and Changes**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, such as the Taiyuan wagon - board price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1227. Some spot prices decreased, for example, the Linfen ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 100 [2]. Macro Policy Outlook - KPMG China Economic Research Institute Dean Cai Wei said that in 2026, it is expected that the macro - aggregate policy will maintain a steady expansion in scale, the fiscal deficit rate may remain at about 4%, and there is room for the monetary policy to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Demand - side policies will emphasize "investing in people" to indirectly promote consumption and lower the financing threshold for private enterprises to support the stabilization of private investment; supply - side policies will accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional industries [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, macro - aggregate policies are expected to maintain a steady expansion in scale, with the fiscal deficit rate likely to remain around 4%, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in monetary policy. Demand - side policies will emphasize "investing in people" to indirectly promote consumption and lower the financing threshold for private enterprises to support the stabilization of private investment. Supply - side policies will accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional industries [2]. - Last night, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a fluctuating trend, and the total position of coking coal was basically flat compared with the previous period. As mines gradually closed down for the Spring Festival, the output of refined coal from mines decreased slightly last week. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal dropped from its high but remained at the highest level in the same period. On the demand side, the hot metal output increased slightly this week, and the profitability rate of steel mills was basically flat. Downstream replenishment was basically completed in the last week before the festival, and steel products were at the "freezing point" of annual demand. So, there are insufficient driving factors for the current market, resulting in a fluctuating trend. After the festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal output, mine operation, and import - related policy trends [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume Information - **Closing Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contracts were 1373.5, 1120.0, 1200.0, 1827.0, 1664.0, and 1739.0, while the prices two days ago were 1377.0, 1123.5, 1203.5, 1832.0, 1667.0, and 1742.0 respectively. The price changes were - 3.5, - 3.5, - 3.5, - 5.0, - 3.0, and - 3.0, with price decline rates of - 0.25%, - 0.31%, - 0.29%, - 0.27%, - 0.18%, and - 0.17% [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes were 1006, 528830, 29614, 85, 9994, and 362 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests were 9220, 4668995, 87542, 784, 37523, and 1979 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 17938, - 2474, 68, 280, and 77 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads for different combinations (e.g., 9 - 1 month) were - 79.5, 160.5, - 77.5, 240, - 160.5, and - 83. The changes in price spreads were 306, 2.5, - 308.5, 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 [2]. Spot Price Information - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices of different types of coal (such as Mongolian No. 5 coking coal) were 1227, 1570, 1391, 1852, 1330, and 1470. The changes in spot prices were 0, 0, - 100, 0, 0, and 0 [2].

Economic Overview - The report indicates that China's economy successfully concluded 2025, but structural disparities in supply and demand, domestic and external demand, and the performance of new versus old drivers are evident [1] - For 2026, domestic economic growth is expected to remain robust, with an anticipated acceleration in the convergence of supply and demand disparities [1] Output Analysis - In 2025, the manufacturing value added grew by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by strong export demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [1] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence and a recovering capital market have supported fast growth in the information technology and financial services sectors, leading to the tertiary industry growth surpassing that of the secondary industry [1] - The initiation of "two heavy" projects and the first round of "two new" subsidies at the beginning of 2026 is expected to boost production in upstream raw materials and downstream consumer goods [1] Consumption Trends - The trend of self-consumption continues to rise, with a shift in consumer structure towards quality and experience, resulting in moderate recovery in the growth of gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, and clothing [1] - Service consumption remains resilient, and the "old-for-new" policy will continue to be implemented with a focus on green, smart, and senior consumer upgrades in 2026 [1] Export Performance - In 2025, China's foreign trade achieved stable volume and quality under complex external conditions, with a record trade surplus that supported the annual economic growth target [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A significant amount of surplus funds is expected to be released at the beginning of 2026 to meet budgeted investment needs [2] - The central bank is anticipated to implement a combination of "interest rate cuts + incremental + expansion" through structural tools at the start of 2026, with conditions for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins allowing for future comprehensive reductions [2] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set higher quality requirements for economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain stable expansion in scale while emphasizing the stimulation of domestic demand and optimizing supply [2] - There will be a focus on supporting private investment stability by lowering financing thresholds and easing access for major projects [2] - On the supply side, policies will promote the large-scale development of emerging industries while accelerating the digital transformation of traditional industries [2]