Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic sentiment shifts, supply-demand imbalances, and seasonal factors, leading to a weak price outlook ahead of the holiday season [1][8]. Supply Pressure - The supply side is characterized by a return to full production from smelting companies and an increase in both primary and recycled lead output, resulting in ample market supply [2]. - Global lead ingot inventories are accumulating, particularly in overseas LME stocks, reinforcing expectations of a loose supply environment that exerts downward pressure on prices [2]. Demand Weakness - Demand is showing typical seasonal contraction as the Lunar New Year approaches, with downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers slowing production and exhibiting low inventory replenishment intentions [3]. - The electric bicycle battery sector is particularly weak, with purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than large-scale stocking [3]. Industry Chain Dynamics - The current industry chain is marked by a "stable supply, loose smelting, and weak demand" pattern, with upstream mining supply stable and midstream smelting actively resuming production [4]. - Downstream battery sectors are the weakest link, with low purchasing intentions influenced by orders and funding, leading to a dominant short position in market capital [4]. Corporate Strategies - Leading companies are adopting a conservative approach at year-end, focusing on ensuring production continuity, optimizing inventory, and controlling costs [5]. - Overall performance is fluctuating with industry cycles, characterized by stability under pressure, with companies exploring recycled lead business to adapt to environmental policies [5]. Spot Market Conditions - The spot market is entering a pre-holiday phase with extremely low trading activity, as most downstream factories have halted operations and actual purchases are nearly stagnant [6]. - Despite sellers' willingness to maintain prices, the lack of transaction support results in spot prices following the downward trend of the futures market [6]. Market Outlook - The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend ahead of the holiday season, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, supply-demand dynamics, and tightening market liquidity [7][8]. - The potential for price stabilization and recovery hinges on the pace of downstream resumption of operations and actual inventory replenishment post-holiday, as well as any favorable macroeconomic developments [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].