玻璃三月报 弱现实强预期 关注空5多9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-3-2 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 投资策略：空5多9 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：节后第一周玻璃期货震荡运行，周线报收小十字星。受春节假期影响，中下游停工放假，市场交投将停滞，产 销指标下滑明显。基差方面，沙河安全-98元/吨，沙河地区基差正向收窄，原先低价去库政策有所调整，厂家库存约450万重 量箱。湖北明弘58元/吨，华中高库存背景下，现货存在降价预期。月间方面，5-9价差-104元/吨，冷修预期和环保政策引发 远月偏强驱动。供给方面，日熔量持平，暂无点火及冷修线。库存方面，全国库存回升高于去年水平，其中华中湖北累库明显。 需求方面，多数钢化厂元宵节后开工，目前原片采购需求弱，且观望情绪较浓。纯碱方面，远兴二期负荷提升，尚无规模检修 消息，缺乏炒作热点，偏弱看待。 后市展望：短期沙河产线各有开停计划，地区整体产能增加，叠加主产区库存累积速度较快，基本面呈恶化趋势。冷修预 期和环保政策属于中长期扰动，行业呈现弱现实强预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with high capital sentiment [1]. - In the cost - end, the US has postponed military operations against Iran, causing crude oil prices to decline, but potential risks remain [1]. - For PX, the PXN was 331 dollars/ton (with a 0 - dollar/ton change compared to the previous period). The fundamentals are weakening, but the medium - term expectation is still good [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee is 348 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is under pressure due to weak demand, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester start - up rate is 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period). The polyester load will accelerate its decline as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are implemented [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 8 yuan/ton (a 24 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), and the market is mainly in a state of waiting and digestion [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 552 yuan/ton, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired [2]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short - term under increased capital positions. In the medium - term, buy on dips after a pullback for hedging. For cross - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [14][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [20][22] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [23][26][28] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][35][36] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profits [43][45][53] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][74] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][91]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in PVC futures prices, with the main contract reaching 4987.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of 2.32% [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, the operating rate continues to decline month-on-month due to maintenance and reduced load at some facilities, although overall supply remains high. It is projected that only 300,000 tons of new capacity will be added by Zhejiang Jiahua by 2026, indicating the end of supply expansion [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal maintenance of chlor-alkali plants, with existing maintenance plans being limited. The industry operating rate is expected to remain at a high level, but the construction and real estate sectors are currently in a low-demand season, leading to a downward trend in the operating rates of hard products like pipes and profiles [2] - As of December 26, 2025, social inventory stands at approximately 1.06 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.43% and a significant year-on-year increase of 31.92% [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the supply is expected to remain high while domestic demand slows down, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook. The valuation of the 05 contract remains significantly elevated, indicating that PVC is likely to exhibit weak performance with strong expectations, and further upward movement in prices is limited, with expectations of price stability at the bottom [2]

Core Viewpoint - The MA2605 contract rose by 3.1% due to heightened tensions between the US and Iran, which has led to a rapid increase in methanol prices as Iran is a major producer of methanol [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US Navy's drone activities near the Iranian coast have escalated tensions, raising market concerns about potential military actions against Iran [2][5]. - China's methanol port inventory remains at historically high levels, with previous shipments experiencing delays in unloading, indicating a weak current market reality [5][6]. - The winter maintenance in Iran is expected to lead to a decrease in shipping volumes, with imports anticipated to peak and then decline in January and February [6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The market is currently in a state of weak reality but strong expectations, as traders anticipate a reduction in port inventories [6]. - Downstream demand is affected by seasonal slowdowns, with the inland market experiencing a closure of port return windows and upcoming maintenance on MTO facilities [6]. - The recent price increase is primarily driven by geopolitical conflicts rather than fundamental supply and demand changes [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The market's expectation of inventory reduction in January and February is seen as a rational response, suggesting a cautious approach to buying on dips for hedging purposes [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View - The weekend US attack on Venezuela has escalated geopolitical conflict risks, but its direct impact on methanol is limited. Last week, both ports and inland areas saw inventory accumulation. After mid - January, the expected decrease in imported arrivals and the restart plan of olefin plants mean methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300. It is recommended to wait and see on long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 47 yuan to 2271 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 30 yuan to 2220 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 18,586 hands to 452,000 hands, and short positions increased by 42,410 hands to 572,000 hands [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 78,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,400 tons. The orders of sample enterprises to be shipped are 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [2] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: On January 3, local time, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical conflict has a limited direct impact on methanol. With inventory accumulation last week, the expected decrease in imports after mid - January and the olefin plant restart plan, methanol has a situation of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see on long positions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Report Core View - The domestic market of soymeal is in a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", with prices oscillating weakly under cost support and inventory pressure. The palm oil market is in a complex game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations", and the futures price may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is weak, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is weak. The reference view is also weak [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic market is in a "strong supply and weak demand" situation. Soybean supply is abundant, and port soybean inventory has increased significantly year - on - year. The soymeal market is in a game between high - inventory pressure and cost - support expectations, with short - term prices running weakly [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating, and intraday is oscillating weakly. The reference view is oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". Supply - side pressure is significant. Malaysia's inventory is expected to reach a six - and - a - half - year high at the end of November due to high production and slow exports. The futures price is in a game between high - inventory and weak - export pressure and potential policy benefits and seasonal production - reduction expectations, and may turn to oscillate after a continuous rebound [7] Other Information - For varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The intraday closing price is the end price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is strong. Oscillation strength/weakness only applies to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [3][4] - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, with the previous day's night - trading closing price as the benchmark [6]

Report Title - "Hualian Futures PVC Monthly Report: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Focus on Bottom Support" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - 11 - month PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. The overall situation of the commodity sector was weak, but there was a rebound at the end of the month due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. - Supply increased in November, with expected production of 213.54 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate was expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will further decrease [9]. - Demand entered the traditional off - season in November, with the overall downstream operating rate at 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. Exports showed different trends, with PVC powder exports increasing and PVC flooring material exports decreasing. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy Market Review - In November, the PVC futures main contract continued to fall to a new low this year, with a four - consecutive - month decline on the monthly line, approaching the historical low since the futures listing. It fell in the first and middle of the month and rebounded in the late of the month. The decline was driven by weak supply - demand, increased supply, off - season domestic demand, insufficient valuation drive, and a volatile external macro - environment. The rebound at the end of the month was due to low - level valuation repair and short - position reduction [9]. Supply - As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase. The average operating rate in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In December, regular maintenance will decrease due to the cold weather in the north [9][24]. Demand - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. It entered the traditional off - season, and construction in the north was restricted. From January to October, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports [9]. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. Futures registered warrants decreased from the high level [9]. Viewpoint - From the raw material side, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene remained weakly stable, with insufficient valuation drive, but the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali continued to decline. The supply - demand situation maintained a weak reality and strong expectations. Externally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December increased again, and risk assets performed well. Technically, PVC bottom - rebounded and broke through short - term moving averages, gradually stabilizing [9]. Strategy - Aggressive investors can refer to the medium - term long - position plan for the V2605 contract, while conservative investors can buy put options for protection [9]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - Not elaborated in detail in the report 3. Spot - Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC futures first decreased and then increased in November, and the 5 - 9 spread weakened. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating weak reality and strong expectations. The 9 - 1 spread first increased and then decreased, and the basis of the main contract weakly sorted and slightly rebounded, with the futures in a slight contango [17][19]. 4. Supply Side Production Capacity and Output - The effective PVC production capacity is 2.902 billion tons. In 2025, the cumulative production from January to November is expected to be 2.0245 billion tons, a 4.38% year - on - year increase. In November, the expected production is 213,540 tons, a 5.15% month - on - month increase and a 5.92% year - on - year increase [24]. - The effective calcium - carbide - method production capacity is 2.025 billion tons, accounting for about 69.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 1.475 billion tons, a 1.86% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 146,690 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month increase but a 0.83% year - on - year decrease [27]. - The effective ethylene - method production capacity is 877 million tons, accounting for about 30.2%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 549.52 million tons, an 11.25% year - on - year increase. In October, the production was 66,120 tons, an 11.78% month - on - month increase and a 23.17% year - on - year increase [31]. Operating Rate and Maintenance - The average operating rate of PVC in November is expected to be 79.59%, a 0.74 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 0.49 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The loss due to maintenance in November was about 20,900 tons. In December, regular maintenance is expected to be 208 tons. The operating rate of the calcium - carbide - method increased in November, while that of the ethylene - method decreased due to maintenance in some plants [35][38]. 5. Demand Side Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio - From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 1.71945 million tons, a 1.72% year - on - year decrease. The sales - to - production ratio in November fluctuated downward [48]. Downstream Operating Rate - In November, the overall downstream operating rate was 47%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 4.19 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The average operating rate of pipe enterprises was 39%, a 0.15 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease but a 2.16 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The operating rate of profile enterprises was 36%, a 4.5 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but a 2.95 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of soft - product enterprises was 71%, a 0.61 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease [52][55]. Exports - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.2337 million tons, a 48.88% year - on - year increase, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, and the UAE. India's cancellation of the BIS certification policy is long - term positive for PVC exports. The cumulative export of PVC flooring materials was 3.46 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year decrease, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [59][61]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, and the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year. In October, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 11.7%, a further decline from - 8.1% in September [64]. 6. Inventory - The total inventory of the PVC industry was about 1.53 million tons, a 7.16% month - on - month increase and a 24.26% year - on - year increase. The enterprise inventory increased by 3.07% month - on - month, and the futures registered warrants first increased and then decreased, still at the highest level in the same period [69][73]. 7. Valuation Raw Material Prices - In November, the price of semi - coke rebounded but was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly downward and was at the weakest level in the same period. The price of ethylene fluctuated slightly downward and was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The price of vinyl chloride was weakly stable and at the weakest level in the same period [79][82]. Product Profits - In November, the loss of calcium - carbide - method PVC continued to expand, and the loss of ethylene - method PVC was also large, still at the weakest level in the same period. The production profit of chlor - alkali decreased month - on - month and significantly decreased year - on - year [90][94].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Pigs remain in a state of strong supply and weak demand, maintaining a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, demand was briefly boosted by the start of school and the double festivals, but downstream consumption showed no significant improvement, and the fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises remained stable [5]. - **Supply**: Pig prices continued to decline this week. Farmers' panic selling persisted, and large - scale farms with high costs were in continuous losses, leading to a slight decrease in the average weight of pig slaughter [5]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in September will increase month - on - month due to the birth and sales of piglets six months ago and the postponed sales plans of some scale enterprises [5]. - **Profit**: The average national pig slaughter price this week was 12.59 yuan/kg, a new low in more than three years, and the daily price dropped by 10% compared to the beginning of the month. The losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets continued to worsen [5]. Group 2: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View This week, egg prices continued to fall, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and decline next week, with the average weekly price in the main production areas ranging from 2.90 - 3.00 yuan/jin [19][21]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Before the festival, terminal demand weakened, and during the festival, although there was replenishment demand, it was difficult to support egg prices. After the festival, egg prices continued to decline [19]. - **Supply**: The total number of slaughtered chickens was 583,700, a 1.68% decrease from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 498 days, 2 days earlier than last week. Due to the decline in egg prices, farmers were more willing to cull chickens [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory increased by 49.61% from last week, and the circulation - link inventory increased by 44.53% from last week due to transportation difficulties during the holiday [19]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of egg - chicken farming was 3.45 yuan/jin, a 1.71% decrease from the previous week, and the farming profit was - 0.30 yuan/jin, a 400% decrease from the previous week [20]. Group 3: Soybean Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The end of October will be an important window for the trade relationship. If the tariff situation does not ease, the price of US soybeans is not optimistic. In the long run, if the relationship between China and the US does not change substantially, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise further, but the upside space is limited [34][35]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, the spot market of soybean meal was under pressure, and the traditional holiday stocking demand was far less than in previous years. The monthly trading volume decreased by more than 30% compared to August [34]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 9.945 million tons, and in October, it was estimated to be about 9.49 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume was 9.4168 million tons, an increase of 1.4638 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. The supply of soybean meal was loose [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the dynamic full - sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a 19.65% month - on - month increase [34]. - **Profit**: The profit of importing and crushing soybeans in September continued to deteriorate compared to August. As of September 30, the near - month crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to August 29 [34]. Group 4: Palm Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View During the holidays, there were many positive news from palm oil producing areas, and domestic buyers made a large number of purchases. In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, but the near - month supply is expected to be loose, and the basis price is under pressure [47]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Indonesia's active promotion of the B50 biodiesel plan boosted market confidence and the expected future demand for palm oil [47]. - **Supply**: From September 1 - 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, and it will enter the production - reduction season in November, with a large price - support space [47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 552,200 tons, the same as last week, and a 9.16% increase compared to the same period last year [47]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the FOB price of palm oil for October shipments was 1,098 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost was 9,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton, and the hedging profit was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [47]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was lower than expected, and there is currently no significant driving force on both the supply and demand sides to push up cotton prices [59]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: As of October 9, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.4%, a 1.80% decrease from last week. During the holiday, orders were limited, and some textile enterprises reduced their operating loads or shut down [60]. - **Supply**: As of October 9, 2025, the operating rate of cotton ginning factories nationwide increased to 14.85%, a 4.8% increase from last week. The picking progress in northern Xinjiang accelerated, while in southern Xinjiang, it was about 20%. The acquisition of local cotton in some areas was difficult due to rain [60]. - **Inventory**: In the week of October 9, the cotton inventory of mainstream textile enterprises was equivalent to 27.15 days. The downstream and terminal showed weak purchasing willingness [60]. - **Profit**: In the 2025/26 season, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 6.11 yuan/kg. The estimated profit of Xinjiang 400 - type ginning factories was 611 yuan/ton, a decrease of 376 yuan/ton compared to before the festival [59].

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and overall supply pressures impacting the market dynamics [1][2][3] Market Data Summary - On September 17, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3002.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.44% [1] - Coastal regions reported soybean meal prices ranging from 2960 to 3090 CNY/ton on September 16, with variations of a decrease of 20 CNY/ton to an increase of 20 CNY/ton compared to the previous day, and a decline of 0 to 20 CNY/ton compared to the same week last year [2] - The European Commission reported a 4.6% year-on-year decrease in soybean meal imports for the 2025/26 fiscal year, totaling 3.76 million tons as of September 14 [2] Export and Production Insights - Brazil's National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) projected soybean meal exports for September at 2.19 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 2.11 million tons [2] - Brazilian corn exports are expected to reach 7.12 million tons, up from 6.96 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures noted a slight reduction in U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, but an increase in planting and harvesting area led to a total production rise to 4.301 billion bushels. Weak export demand, particularly to China, has resulted in an increase in ending stocks to 300 million bushels, with market focus on U.S.-China trade relations [3] - Hualian Futures highlighted that recent U.S.-China talks did not address soybean purchases, leaving concerns about domestic soybean shortages unresolved. Brazilian soybean planting is set to begin, with favorable weather conditions in late September [3] - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, with short-term supply limiting price increases. A wide fluctuation in soybean meal prices is anticipated, with support levels suggested between 2900 and 3000 CNY/ton [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in domestic soybean meal futures prices have been significant, with the 2601 contract dropping from 3190 yuan/ton to 3030 yuan/ton due to market expectations of potential U.S. soybean purchases by China, followed by a stabilization around 3040 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current soybean meal market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, where domestic supply and demand are loose, but there are expectations of a supply gap in the fourth quarter [1] - Brazilian soybean price differentials have increased, raising import costs for China by approximately 40 yuan/ton, leading to a re-evaluation of soybean meal pricing [2] - China's soybean imports from the U.S. increased by 31.2% year-on-year from January to July, indicating proactive stocking by oil mills in anticipation of potential shortages [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean meal supply remains generally sufficient, with high import volumes and oil mill operating rates, but there is still a projected supply gap in the fourth quarter [2][3] - Current spot prices for soybean meal are stable around 3000 yuan/ton, with effective basis adjustments mitigating futures price volatility [3] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. soybean yield and potential procurement agreements between China and the U.S., as these factors directly influence global soybean supply [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - If the U.S. soybean cannot enter the Chinese market, the fourth quarter procurement gap could support soybean meal futures prices, particularly for later contracts [3] - The soybean meal market has not experienced a significant bull market due to abundant production, but global trade tensions have led to relatively strong performance within the agricultural sector [4] - Strategies suggest taking long positions on soybean meal at lower prices, while recommending arbitrage operations between soybean meal and other meal types due to differing supply dynamics [4]