Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly; in the medium - term, it is expected to rise. The main driving force for the stock index rebound since late June is the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year, including the optimistic expectation that the "anti - involution" policy will promote the profit repair of the new energy industry and the confidence boost of macro - bottoming policies to the traditional infrastructure and real estate sectors. The market risk preference is positive recently, and the stock index will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "fluctuation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "fluctuation with an upward bias". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "fluctuation with an upward bias", the medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "fluctuation with an upward bias". The core logic is that since late June, the stock index has rebounded significantly, driven by the expectation of policy benefits in the second half of the year. Currently, domestic inflation is weak, the endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand may be affected by tariff factors. More policies to stabilize economic demand and market expectations are needed in the second half of the year, and the market is waiting for the policy cooperation of the Politburo meeting in July. The market risk preference is positive recently, and the stock index will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4].