11月26日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜升至近一个月来最高，市场普遍预期美联储将在12 月降息，且在金属流向美国库存后，价格料将进一步上涨。 伦敦时间11月26日17:00(北京时间11月27日01:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨157美元，或1.45%，收报每吨 10,975.0美元；此前触及11,025美元的10月30日以来最高。 | | 11月26日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张紫幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,975.00 ↑ +157.00 ↑ +1.45% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,861.00 ↑ | +60.50 ↑ +2.16% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,056.50 ↑ | +63.50 ↑ +2.12% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,979.50 ↓ | -1.00 -0.05% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,823.00 ↓ | -49.00 ↓ -0.33% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,991.00 ↑ +444.00 ↑ +1.18% | | 今年以来，LME注册仓库铜库存大 ...

国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万 吨盈余。该机构称，今年前九个月市场呈现9.4万吨盈余，而去年同期盈余达31万吨。9月全球精炼铜产 量为237万吨，消费量为242万吨。经中国保税仓库库存变动调整后，9月出现5万吨缺口，8月为4.7万吨 盈余。 目前国内铜精矿现货加工费持续低迷，临近年底市场关注焦点在于国内冶炼厂和海外矿商对于加工费的 长单谈判结果。 11月26日（周三），铜价上涨，因疲软的美国数据提高了美联储12月降息的预期。 上海期货交易所交投最活跃的1月铜合约日盘收涨170元或0.20%，报每吨86,590元。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)指标三个月期铜最新上涨74美元或0.68%，报每吨10,892美元。 市场获得新的支撑，因美国政府关门而推迟至周二才发布的美国9月经济数据显示零售销售和通胀降 温，支持美联储在12月降息。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美国9月零售销售月率上升0.2%，市场此前预期增长0.4%，前值增长 0.6%。 美国9月PPI月率增长0.3%，符合预期，前值下降0.1%。 上海期交所其他基本金属中，期铝2601合约小 ...

11月25日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜攀升至一周多以来的最高水平，受库存持续外流至 美国支撑。 在技术面上，LME指标期铜突破了21日移动均线的阻力，目前该均线在每吨10,828美元处形成支撑。 这种广泛用于电力和建筑行业的金属在不到一个月前曾创下每吨11,200美元的历史新高，原因是市场担 忧印尼格拉斯伯格（Grasberg）矿今年和明年的铜供应趋紧。 在LME其他金属方面，三个月铅下跌3.5美元，或0.18%，收报每吨1,980.5美元，盘中触及1,979美元， 为10月20日以来最低。 | | 11月25日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 楽器 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,818.00 ↑ | +45.00 ↑ +0.42% | | 三个月期铝 | 2,800.50 | -11.50 J -0.41% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,993.00 ↓ | -7.00 -0.23% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,980.50 | -3.50 -0.18% | | 三个月期镍 | 14,872.00 ↑ | +173 ...

Core Insights - LME copper prices rebounded on November 19, with investors viewing the recent price drop as a buying opportunity, amidst a stabilizing stock market and ongoing supply concerns in the copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 19, LME three-month copper rose by $33, or 0.31%, closing at $10,752.50 per ton [2]. - Other base metals also showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $21 (0.76%) to $2,801.00, while three-month zinc and lead fell by $8.00 (0.27%) and $8.50 (0.42%) respectively [2]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - The copper market remains supported by supply worries due to operational disruptions at global mining sites [5]. - Freeport-McMoRan announced plans to resume production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia by July 2026, following a landslide that halted operations in September [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Positive sentiment in the metal market was noted ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with some investors adjusting their positions in the stock market [4]. - The copper market is seeing higher lows during pullbacks, indicating that buyers are ready to enter the market rather than waiting for further declines [4].

11月18日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜连续第三个交易日下滑，盘中触及近两周来的最低 点，工业金属在风险资产的大范围抛售中受到冲击，风险资产抛售的导火索是对科技行业估值过高的担 忧和美联储降息希望的消退。 交易商还在等待周四公布的美国9月份就业数据，该数据因政府关门而推迟。 经纪商Marex在一份报告中称："在人工智能的影响和对美联储下一步行动的疑虑下，风险偏好不太可 能有明显改善。" 其他基本金属中，LME三个月期铝下跌33.5美元，或1.19%，收报每吨2,780.0美元，也是连续第三天下 跌，盘中创下10月21日以来的最低点。 由于担心矿山供应，铜价10月29日创下的11,200美元历史最高点，之后回落约4.3%。但一位交易商认 为，最近的下跌是 "修正"，而不是人工智能泡沫破裂。 矿业公司自由港麦克莫兰公司(Freeport-McMoRan)周二表示，计划从2026年第二季度起重启印尼 Grasberg矿区的块状崩落法开采作业，该计划符合此前指引。此前该矿区因一起致命事故于9月停产。 根据分阶段计划，自由港预计2026年旗下自由港印尼公司（PT Freeport Indonesia）的铜金总 ...

11月17日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜连续第二个交易日下跌，受累于美元略微走强、美 联储再次降息的希望减弱以及一系列宏观担忧。 LME现货铜较三个月期铜每吨贴水29美元，表明短期需求并不迫切。 不过，现货锌较三个月期锌每吨升水100美元，凸显出供应吃紧，LME锌库存不足4万吨。 伦敦时间11月17日17:00(北京时间11月18日01:00)LME三个月期铜下跌73.5美元，或0.68%，收报每吨 10,778.5美元。 LME三个月期铝下跌45美元，或1.57%，收报每吨2,813.5美元，此前触及10月23日以来最低。一位交易 商称："铝价一直在大幅上涨，现在人们可能认为这是做空的好价格。"期铝11月3日触及2,920美元的 2022年5月以来高位。 | | 11月17日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,778.50 - - 73.50 -0.68% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.813.50 | -45.00 ↓ -1.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,994.00 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by $31, or 0.29%, closing at $10,827.00 per ton on November 11, 2023, influenced by weak employment data and a declining dollar [1][2] - The year-to-date increase in LME copper prices is 23%, with a record high of $11,200 per ton reached on October 29, 2023 [4] - The U.S. Senate approved a compromise plan to restore federal funding, which is expected to end the government shutdown, positively impacting financial markets and industrial metals [4][5] Group 2 - Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper company, reported a 7% decrease in production in September, contributing to upward pressure on copper prices [5] - Deutsche Bank raised its year-end price forecast for copper to $10,500 per ton, aluminum to $2,900 per ton, and zinc to $3,000 per ton, while lowering nickel's forecast to $15,000 per ton [6] - Indonesia's Trade Ministry reported a 53.89% year-on-year decrease in refined tin exports in October, indicating potential supply constraints [7]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a 17-month high due to signs of easing global trade tensions and strong economic growth expectations, with three-month copper rising by $66.5 to $11,029.0 per ton [1] - The three-month aluminum price increased by $15.5 to $2,874.5 per ton, while zinc rose by $29.5 to $3,055.0 per ton, indicating a positive trend in base metal prices [2][7] - A recent survey of 30 industry analysts projected an increase in average copper prices, estimating 2025 LME spot copper at $9,752 per ton, up from previous estimates [6] Group 2 - The Chinese economy showed signs of strengthening, with September industrial profit growth being the fastest in nearly two years, which may enhance demand for industrial metals [4] - The weakening of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for Chinese buyers, although the copper premium in China has decreased, indicating a slower purchasing pace [5] - Zinc inventories in LME registered warehouses have dropped to 37,050 tons, the lowest level since March 2023, reflecting supply concerns [8]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices are rising, nearing $11,000 per ton, driven by ongoing supply concerns and optimistic trade outlooks [1] Group 1: Copper Market Insights - On October 24, LME three-month copper rose by $108.5, or 1%, closing at $10,962.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,979.50, marking the highest level since October 9 [1] - LME copper inventory has decreased to 136,350 tons, the lowest since the end of July, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory has fallen to 104,792 tons [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Analyst John Meyer from SP Angel indicates that copper prices are expected to continue rising due to tightening supply, influenced by the mudslide incident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and persistent global copper demand [4] - Freeport's Grasberg copper mine has been out of production since the incident on September 8, and Antofagasta has projected its 2025 copper output to be at the lower end of the forecast range of 660,000 to 700,000 tons [4] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Other base metals also experienced fluctuations; LME three-month aluminum fell by $3.5, or 0.12%, closing at $2,859.0 per ton, with an intraday peak of $2,883.50, the highest since May 2022 [2][4]

Group 1 - LME copper futures rose by $108, closing at $10,962 per ton [1] - LME aluminum futures fell by $4, closing at $2,859 per ton [1] - LME zinc futures increased by $8, closing at $3,026 per ton [1] - LME lead futures gained $6, closing at $2,016 per ton [1] - LME nickel futures decreased by $2, closing at $15,361 per ton [1] - LME tin futures rose by $30, closing at $35,802 per ton [1] - LME cobalt futures remained unchanged, closing at $48,570 per ton [1]