"9月降息25个基点——这扇门会打开，"德国中央合作银行（DZ Bank AG）外汇与货币政策研究主管索尼娅·马滕 （Sonja Marten）在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，"但我认为他不会采取比这更激进的立场。" 马滕指出，尽管特朗普对美联储施加的大幅降息压力日益加大，但鲍威尔很可能会顶住压力。 她表示，鲍威尔会"非常明确地表明，他不会在白宫的压力下走上一条可能缺乏基本面支撑的道路"。 交易员近日一直在下调降息押注：目前市场预计美联储年底前将累计降息47个基点，而仅一周多前，这一预期还为 63个基点。 外汇期权显示，美元看涨情绪升至三周最高，表明交易员押注美联储主席鲍威尔不会就降息采取过度鸽派立场。 在鲍威尔周五于美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会上发表备受期待的讲话前，彭博美元现货指数的所谓"一个月期风险 逆转指标"已升至7月31日以来的最高水平。目前美元指数处于8月5日以来的高位，本周有望以接近0.8%的涨幅收 官。 彭博美元现货指数的所谓"一个月期风险逆转指标"本月以来一直在上升 莫尼克斯欧洲公司（Monex Europe）宏观研究主管尼克·里斯（Nick Rees）表示，若鲍威尔的讲话中出现任何暗示9 月可能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is considering succeeding Chairman Powell after his term ends next year and supports at least three interest rate cuts this year in response to President Trump's call to lower borrowing costs [1] - Interest rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut anticipated in September [1] - A key event this week is the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23, where Chairman Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for insights on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Bond yields have decreased, while the dollar has seen a slight increase [1]

格隆汇7月31日｜美元7月有望实现2025年以来的首次月度上涨。这得益于美联储的强硬立场以及美国经 济的强劲表现。周三，美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 他并不急于降低利率，并且没有透露何时可能再次降 低利率。与此同时，在一系列贸易协议达成后，美国总统特朗普混乱的关税政策所带来的不确定性也有 所缓解，投资者对美国经济韧性的信心增强。欧元是本月美元上涨的最大受害者之一，因为投资者纷纷 撤回了此前基于"欧洲市场可能提供更多机会"这一假设而做出的押注。欧元本月有望下跌近3%。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

美元周四在接近两个月高位的区间波动，此前美联储主席鲍威尔坚持其对降息的谨慎立场，同时日本央行保持利率不变但上调了通 胀预测。叠加特朗普关税的不确定性逐渐消退，7月有望成为美元今年以来首个实现月度正增长的月份。 据见闻此前文章，日本央行在为期两天的货币政策会议结束后，一致投票决定将短期利率维持在0.5%不变，但将本财年核心消费者 通胀预测从三个月前的2.2%上调至2.7%。该决议公布后，日元短线震荡，随后明显走高，对美元汇率升值0.5%至148.78。 而在隔夜，美联储主席鲍威尔在FOMC记者会上未就9月降息给出指引，表示关税和通胀仍充满不确定性，现在就断言9月降息还为 时过早。 美元指数稳定在99.7附近，距离前一交易日创下的两个月高点不远，本月累计涨幅约3.2%。市场焦点现已转向8月1日的关税大限， 届时未能与美国达成贸易协议的国家将面临高额关税。 美联储鹰派立场支撑美元走强 美元本月的强势表现主要归功于美联储的鹰派立场和美国经济的韧性。据见闻此前文章，美国Q2实际GDP年化季环比初值3%好于 预期，几个小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔重申，现在降息为时尚早，这一表态进一步提振了美元。 澳大利亚国民银行高级货币策略 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，Monex Europe分析师在一份报告中称，如果即将公布的美国经济增长数据表现强 劲，且美联储主席鲍威尔在稍后的决策中对降息态度谨慎，美元可能会进一步上涨。美国第二季度经济 增长数据将于北京时间20:30公布，美联储的政策决定将于次日02:00公布，预计利率将维持不变。不 过，分析师表示，美元的涨幅应该有限。他们称，本周美元迄今的上涨似乎与关键事件前的仓位调整有 关，而非对其价值的根本性重新评估。 机构：美元可能在美国GDP数据和美联储决议后上涨 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has turned weak, and the outlook for copper prices is poor. The anti - involution speculation in the futures market has ended, and the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates this week is extremely low, with the US dollar rising continuously. The market remains weak, and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Market Performance Summary - **Price Changes**: Shanghai copper closed at 79,000, and the spot price was 79,270. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the spot premium dropped to 270 points. The spot basis premium dropped to 95 points, and spot trading was poor. LME spot premium narrowed slightly to a discount of - 54 dollars, indicating weak external spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8.05, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 270 points [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: US copper inventories increased significantly this week, London copper inventories rose, and Shanghai copper inventories decreased slightly [1]. - **Exchange Rate and Premium**: The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose slightly to 51.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand [1]. Group 4: Technical and Supply - Demand Analysis - **Technical Analysis**: London copper fluctuated slightly higher, trading around 9,800 dollars. Shanghai copper rebounded after hitting the bottom and fell slightly, closing at 7,9000, with a weak technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the off - season, the spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor. With the approaching implementation of US tariffs, the demand for London and Shanghai copper has decreased significantly [2].

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond increased by 2.4 basis points, returning above 4.43%, approaching a daily high of 4.4392% [1] - There was a significant V-shaped reversal in the short term, with U.S. stocks initially dropping to a daily low of 4.4014% [1] - Spot gold declined approximately 0.4%, reaching a daily low of $3341.15, and exhibited an M-shaped trend, rising to a daily high of $3375.01 at 15:30 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.05%, currently at 97.900 points, showing a W-shaped trend, with a daily high of 98.100 points reached at 14:22 [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.2%, with a cumulative rise of over 0.7% for the week [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.2% against the Canadian dollar [2] - The British pound fell by 0.6% against the US dollar, marking the second consecutive month of contraction in the UK economy, leading to the worst eight-month decline for the pound [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent U.S. airstrikes against Iran have prompted investors to exit significant short positions on the dollar [1] - The airstrikes are seen as a catalyst for hedge funds and CTAs to unwind their bearish dollar positions, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards a slow appreciation of the dollar [1] - The euro, pound, and Swedish krona are particularly vulnerable to large momentum long position liquidations due to this shift in sentiment [1] Group 2 - The strategist continues to favor long positions in euro/Swedish krona as a hedge against deteriorating global risk sentiment and the fading of 'sell America' sentiment, with a target price of 11.40 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Monex Europe analysts suggests that if the Federal Reserve suppresses market expectations for interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, the US dollar may strengthen [1] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut in June, but recent US data indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease policies before the fourth quarter [1] - Inflation remains high due to tariffs, which are expected to further increase price pressures [1] - The labor market remains robust, contradicting expectations of an economic slowdown [1] Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve has limited options other than to delay market easing expectations and emphasize the resilience of the potential economic conditions [1]