1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The basic metals are experiencing wide - range oscillations due to the concerns about supply disruptions and the rise of the US dollar. There is strong support from the supply side, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the market is cautious, but energy price increases and potential supply disruption risks still support the basic metals. One can cautiously participate in short - long opportunities for aluminum and copper, and then focus on short - long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel after inventory depletion. In the medium - term, the risks of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of - 190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 56 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94 dollars/dry ton; the Middle East situation heated up, and Israel announced an attack on Iran [5]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the rebound of the US dollar index briefly pressured non - ferrous metal prices. In terms of supply and demand, the supply disruptions of copper mines continue to increase, the spot TC of copper concentrates is at a low level and has declined significantly recently, and the supply of copper mines remains tight. In smelting, the long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 reached a record low, which further strengthened the expectation of a contraction in the refined copper supply. On the demand side, as the off - season approaches, the terminal demand remains weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is generally high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist, and the short - term geopolitical situation has increased the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [5]. Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,672.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.7 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipts were 326,638 tons, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro - sentiment has amplified the fluctuations in the market. Fundamentally, as the quotation cycle changes, the current average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, and the expectation of supply contraction has intensified. However, in reality, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and there is a strong inventory accumulation trend in China. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, and the downward shift in costs is weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: The actual supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts has intensified, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,928 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. On March 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. On March 3, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 316,153 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,365 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US economic data continues to show a structural divergence, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive in the future. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is at a high level; in Indonesia, due to power and other constraints, there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory continues to accumulate, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decrease. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the repeated capital sentiment and the unchanged expectation of tightening supply and demand are expected to keep aluminum prices oscillating and upward - biased. In the medium - term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by power and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply and demand will turn to a shortage, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to move up [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. On March 3, the registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 62,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 875 tons [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the quotation center remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short - term, so the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the medium - term tax - refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply. On the demand side, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short - term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid demand for low - price replenishment. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the cost support still exists, and the supply and demand remain stable, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate and be upward - biased. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, there is a risk of production reduction or suspension on the supply side due to the cancellation of policies, and the supply and demand maintain a tight balance, so the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward - biased trend [11]. Zinc - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons [12]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the Middle East situation has heated up, and the supply of zinc may be affected by geopolitical disturbances. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit of smelters has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from terminals are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, the supply of zinc ingots will still increase, while the demand increment is small, and zinc prices are expected to decline [12]. Lead - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have disturbed, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,575 - 16,675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. On March 2, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 54,888 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41 tons [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot premium remains stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts have decreased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries remains stable, the lead price has risen, the smelting profit of recycled lead has increased slightly, the smelters are still in the process of resuming production, and the weekly output of lead ingots remains stable. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more cautious, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly declined. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually increase. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains at a high level. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually increase, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][15]. Nickel - **View**: The non - ferrous metal sector has corrected, and nickel prices have declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 72 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated that the nickel production in 2026 would be about 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the planned 260 - 270 million tons in the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association said that the revision of the RKAB was expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB was expected to increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% this year. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January, and the overall output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained at a high level. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply. The subsequent focus is on the realization of peak - season demand. In terms of policy disturbances, Indonesia has lowered the nickel ore quota for 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method for nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel costs and balance. The subsequent changes in Indonesian policies need to be continuously tracked. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement, the overall supply and demand in February are still relatively loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which puts some pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, Indonesia's lowering of the 2026 nickel ore quota has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel balance, which provides some support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [15][16]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel prices have corrected, and the stainless - steel market has oscillated and declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the inventory of stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts was 51,591 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 594 tons. In the spot market, on March 3, the premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 spot to the stainless - steel main contract was 215 yuan/ton. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still some support on the cost side of stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the subsequent focus is on the realization of the peak season. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the warehouse receipts have also increased marginally. - **Outlook**: Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the strength of the subsequent peak - season realization. The current fundamentals put some pressure on prices. However, considering that the profits of the industrial chain have been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [17]. Tin - **View**: The supply expectation in the main production areas is loosening, and tin prices have significantly corrected. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 80 tons month - on - month to 7,470 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 215 tons month - on - month to 11,316 tons; the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 16,517 lots month - on - month to 91,367 lots. In the spot market, on March 3, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 412,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21,250 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main Logic**: The supply expectation in the main tin production areas is loosening, and combined with the weakening of market sentiment, tin prices have corrected. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mines in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has turned loose. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, on the supply side, the mine end continues to be tight, the processing fee for tin concentrates remains at a low level, and it is difficult to increase the output of refined tin. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, the consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and in the long - term, tin prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index and Special Index**: On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,482.90, an increase of 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2,847.65, an increase of 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,364.70, an increase of 1.43% [144]. - **Sector Index**: On March 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2,717.21, with a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decline of 3.99%, and an increase of 1.16% since the beginning of the year [146].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump has led to a strengthening of the US dollar, with indications that Warsh may favor reducing the Fed's balance sheet in the coming years if inflation remains persistent [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The US dollar index increased by 0.1%, reaching 97.108 points, and previously hit a one-week high of 97.298 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Other factors influencing the diversified trading of the US dollar include Trump's policies, increased tariff threats, and the demand for asset allocation from other countries [1]

Group 1 - The founder of Ark Investment Management, Cathie Wood, warns about the bubble risk in gold, stating that the likelihood of a decline in gold prices is high [1][4] - The market capitalization of gold as a percentage of the U.S. money supply (M2) has reached a historical high, surpassing the peak in 1980, and is at its highest level since the Great Depression in 1934 [1][4] - In 1934, the U.S. dollar depreciated by nearly 70% against gold, and the government prohibited private ownership of gold while M2 significantly shrank [1][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. economy is markedly different from the high inflation period of the 1970s or the deflationary depression of the 1930s, with foreign central banks reducing their reliance on the dollar [3][5] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond peaked at 5% at the end of 2023 but has since decreased to 4.2% [3][5] - Wood believes that the current bubble is not in artificial intelligence but in gold, suggesting that a rise in the dollar could burst this bubble, similar to the period from 1980 to 2000 when gold prices fell over 60% [4][5]

Group 1 - The US market is experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to a clear trend of "dollar up, everything down" with slight declines in US Treasury bonds, gold, and US stock futures [2] - The market's current state is characterized by suppressed volatility, with both bullish and bearish forces resting, creating a situation where everyone is waiting for others to act first [2] - The market is not in a "safe period" but rather a "quiet period under pressure," indicating that any sudden directional movement could catch investors off guard [2] Group 2 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: Full Firepower, Riding the Waves" suggests that the upcoming interest rate cut on December 10 will have significantly different implications for short-term and long-term financial markets [3] - There is a notable change regarding a critical stock in China, coinciding with an unusual long report released by Goldman Sachs [3] - Multiple reports from Wall Street are analyzing the prospects of A-shares, US stocks, and gold, questioning whether the US bull market will continue and if the narrative for A-shares has concluded [3]

Core Points - LME copper prices fell for the second consecutive day, influenced by a slight strengthening of the US dollar, diminished hopes for further Fed rate cuts, and various macroeconomic concerns [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price decreased by $73.5, or 0.68%, closing at $10,778.5 per ton [1][2] Group 1: Market Overview - Basic metal fundamentals remain unchanged, with the market awaiting delayed US economic data and more clues regarding monetary policy [4] - The strengthening US dollar makes metals priced in dollars more expensive for investors holding other currencies, impacting market sentiment [4] - Current demand outlook is limited, with copper prices constrained within a narrow range and other signals appearing to deteriorate [4] Group 2: Specific Metal Performance - LME spot copper is trading at a $29 per ton discount to the three-month copper, indicating weak short-term demand [4] - LME zinc shows a $100 per ton premium for spot zinc over three-month zinc, highlighting tight supply with LME zinc inventories below 40,000 tons [5] - LME three-month aluminum fell by $45, or 1.57%, closing at $2,813.5 per ton, reaching its lowest since October 23 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have shifted, benefiting the US dollar, which has fallen nearly 400 basis points from a high of 1.1920 reached a few weeks ago [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - There seems to be no significant change in expectations regarding interest rate cuts compared to a few weeks ago, but Jerome Powell's differing outlook on future prospects has significantly impacted the euro/dollar exchange rate in recent days [2] - Analysts are closely monitoring the trends in US manufacturing, which is a key focus of today's agenda [2] Group 2: European Central Bank and Euro Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not released any major news, with President Christine Lagarde reiterating that policy decisions are based on each meeting's circumstances and are entirely dependent on macroeconomic data [2] - There are concerns that a strong euro could jeopardize the already weak European economy, putting the ECB in a difficult position [2] - Some large investment institutions that previously had a bullish outlook on the euro, believing the exchange rate should approach 1.25, have now adopted a more conservative stance [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Strategies - ICMarkets has reiterated skepticism about the euro's ability to continue rising strongly, suggesting that a correction is more likely, which has already begun [2] - The US dollar still has room for appreciation, leading to a cautious stance and consideration of buying euros at lower prices [2]

Core Insights - The dollar has strengthened against a basket of currencies in anticipation of U.S. inflation data for September, which is expected to show an acceleration [1] Group 1 - The rise of the dollar indicates market expectations regarding inflation trends [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index has broken through resistance levels and is now above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, marking a significant shift in sentiment after a period of bearish outlooks on the dollar [1] - The focus in the market has shifted from questioning the dollar's decline to assessing how much short position liquidation is necessary, impacting currencies like the euro and yen [3] - The U.S. labor market is showing structural changes, with the number of jobs needed to maintain stable unemployment dropping significantly, indicating that slower job growth does not necessarily equate to economic weakness [4] Group 2 - The rise of the dollar is seen as self-reinforcing, with momentum traders driving up the index despite underlying fundamentals, while other currencies struggle to act as safe havens [5] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is critical, as a core reading of 0.3% could confirm a rate cut in October, but the outlook for December remains uncertain [5] - In Europe, the euro remains vulnerable despite temporary relief from political announcements, with traders wary of fiscal credibility and potential market reactions [6] Group 3 - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to political instability rather than monetary policy, with the potential for a coalition government to stabilize the currency [6] - The current rise in the dollar index reflects market mechanics rather than macroeconomic beliefs, suggesting that unless there are significant changes in CPI or Federal Reserve communications, the dollar may enter a consolidation phase [7]

Group 1 - The bullish sentiment for the US dollar has reached a three-week high, indicating traders' bets that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will not adopt an overly dovish stance regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's one-month risk reversal indicator has been rising since the beginning of the month, reflecting increased confidence in the dollar [2] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased, with current projections indicating a total of 47 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 63 basis points just over a week ago [4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish tone in his upcoming speech, which could further support the dollar's strength, particularly against the euro [4] - If Powell's speech implies any potential for a rate cut in September, it may lead to a temporary sell-off of the dollar, although this is expected to be short-lived [4] - The euro to dollar exchange rate has seen a significant decline, with the previous month marking a near four-year low, leading to an oversupply of long positions in euros that remains unresolved [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is considering succeeding Chairman Powell after his term ends next year and supports at least three interest rate cuts this year in response to President Trump's call to lower borrowing costs [1] - Interest rate futures indicate that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut anticipated in September [1] - A key event this week is the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23, where Chairman Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for insights on the economic and monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Bond yields have decreased, while the dollar has seen a slight increase [1]