1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term long position maintained [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The judgment that oil prices will maintain a weak pattern at the end of the fourth quarter remains unchanged, but the current valuation has been oversold, so there is short - term support for prices to stop falling [16]. - The US PADD5 refining area has changed its trading route and started to transport diesel to Europe, indicating that the arbitrage window is open. Although ICE has set strict new regulations for diesel delivery at European refineries, it is believed that the diesel crack spread can still be short - sold at the top [16]. - Due to the upcoming resumption of operations at the Kuwaiti refinery and the butterfly effect of ICE's restrictions on Russian diesel delivery products, China has begun to export a large amount of fuel oil for arbitrage, so the domestic pressure has been relieved. It is recommended to take profits on the operation of widening the low - high sulfur spread [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil maintained a bottom - oscillating range this week. After an intraday sharp decline under the expectation of easing in Russia - Ukraine relations, it recovered its losses. The overall fundamentals are healthy, providing bottom support [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. When oil prices fell this time, shale oil production declined slightly. Refineries increased the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand, and the overall on - balance - sheet inventory remained healthy. OPEC's short - term supply remained flat. Venezuela had strong production and supply. CPC Terminal's exports remained weak, and Russia's exports were not blocked [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, the Bank of Japan expressed an expectation of interest rate hikes this week. Meanwhile, the number of US jobless claims was significantly lower than expected, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. India cut interest rates by 25bp this week and raised the initial GDP growth rate from 6.8% to 7.3%. The overall global macro situation was neutral this week. At the political level, the geopolitical premium has almost disappeared. Putin visited India to promote energy - related negotiations. Hungary expressed its intention to acquire overseas assets of Russian energy companies, while Russia's shadow fleet was frequently attacked [16]. - **Short - Term Oil Price Impact Factors & Assessment**: Factors such as European and American policies are neutral, geopolitical factors are short - term positive, macro factors are neutral, non - OPEC supply - demand is short - term positive, and OPEC supply - demand is short - term negative and long - term positive. The short - term view is to hold long positions in oil prices, hold short positions in the diesel crack spread, end the operation of widening the low - high sulfur spread, and conduct short - term observation [18]. 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Macro Short - term High - frequency Indicators**: Include indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term interest rate spread, which show certain trends and relationships with WTI oil prices [44]. - **Macro Medium - term Forecast Indicators**: Such as the eurozone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast, which reflect the medium - term macro - economic situation [51]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran + Libya + Venezuela + Russia) are presented, and their relationships with WTI oil prices are analyzed [54]. 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve and the near - far structure of various crude oils, and show the changes in the WTI crude oil M1/M4 spread and M1 price [58]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Analyze spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI, and show their historical ranges and recent trends [60][62]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the forward curve of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oil products, as well as spreads such as RB/HO and LGO/RB [68][72]. - **Crack Spreads**: Analyze the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the United States [76][79][82]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+**: Summarize the results of OPEC's past meetings, including production cuts and increases. Present data on OPEC's production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected shutdowns, as well as the production and export forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries and major OPEC+ member countries [88][90]. - **Supply: US**: The SPR's funds have been significantly cut from $1.3 billion to $171 million. There are various policies and news related to the oil industry, such as the possible relaxation of sanctions on Venezuela, sanctions on Iran, and the release of a signal to replenish the SPR at low prices. Analyze data on US oil wells, rigs, production, and exports [123][125]. - **Supply: Other**: Provide dynamic forecasts of crude oil production in countries such as Canada, Norway, and Brazil, as well as China's crude oil production [132]. 3.5 Crude Oil Demand - **Demand: US**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including crude oil feeding, refinery capacity utilization, and refinery shutdown capacity. Also analyze the import and export of crude oil, the production and demand of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, and the import and export of refined oil products. Summarize the overall production, demand, and net export of refined oil products, as well as micro - demand indicators [138][141][144][150][153][155]. - **Demand: China**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including crude oil feeding, import, and the operating rates and profits of major and independent refineries. Also analyze the production and demand of gasoline and diesel, the export of refined oil products, and micro - demand indicators [160][163][166][171][174]. - **Demand: Europe**: Analyze the direct demand of refineries, including the operating rates of 16 European countries' refineries, crude oil feeding, and refinery profits. Also analyze the import of crude oil and the production of refined oil products [179][182][184]. - **Demand: India**: Present data on India's crude oil feeding, refinery operating rates, crude oil imports, and demand [189]. - **Demand: Other**: Analyze the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and the oil - shipping quality models [193][196]. 3.6 Crude Oil Inventory - **Inventory: US**: Analyze the commercial inventory of US crude oil, the available days of inventory, the Cushing inventory, and the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, as well as their available days [203][205][207]. - **Inventory: China**: Analyze the port inventory of Chinese crude oil, the social, factory, and commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel, and the production - sales ratios of gasoline and diesel [212][215][218]. - **Inventory: Europe**: Analyze the ARA inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha, the ARA inventory of aviation kerosene, and the total refined oil inventory. Also analyze the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, naphtha, crude oil, and total refined oil in 16 European countries [223][226][228][231]. - **Inventory: Singapore**: Analyze the inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil in Singapore [235]. - **Inventory: Fujairah**: Analyze the port inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil in Fujairah [240]. - **Inventory: Maritime**: Analyze the floating storage of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, heavy oil, light oil, and crude oil at sea, as well as the total floating storage of VLCC and Suezmax and their relationships with WTI oil prices [245][249][253]. 3.7 Meteorological Disasters - There are no significant meteorological disasters. The global storm model shows little impact on southern China, there are no meteorological warnings in the Middle East, the Canadian wildfire season is over, and the rainy - season peak in the US Gulf of Mexico has passed [257][259]. 3.8 Alternative Data - Analyze alternative data such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the crude oil transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked according to media polls, and their relationships with WTI oil prices [267].

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report 2025/10/18 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although current high - frequency macro factors show extreme bearishness, the fundamental and valuation of crude oil itself are overly undervalued. Geopolitical factors are not completely gone, and the current price is approaching the break - even line of North American heavy and light crude oils (WCS & WTI), so there's no need to be overly pessimistic about oil prices. Three high - frequency signals are awaited to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil: 1. Speculative trading returns to activity. 2. North American production cuts similar to previous instances when the break - even line was reached. 3. Middle - East actions to cut exports and support prices similar to previous ones [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil declined continuously this week. Amid uncertainties in macro - trade and expectations of geopolitical easing from US - Russia negotiations, the US once claimed that Japan and India would stop buying Russian oil, but all parties were vague due to the economic benefits of Russian oil, thus failing to provide geopolitical premium for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC had a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US shale oil production increased slightly before, and refinery operations maintained a seasonal decline but are about to enter a small demand peak season. The crack spread of refined oil declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil itself was stronger than the performance of the unit price [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, after the US unilaterally created trade conflicts, US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying oil from Russia and would then try to get China to do the same. Multiple Western countries announced the resumption of sanctions on Iran. The US and Russia had a new round of calls, and Russia agreed to a peace talk proposed by the US. Ukraine faced an energy crisis, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and shadow tankers. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Wait for three high - frequency signals to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil [16]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, which are all related to WTI oil prices [38]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [41]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [44]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [49]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Include Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI spreads [52]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [59]. - **Crack Spreads**: Cover the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [67]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC+ have had a series of production - related decisions since 2023, including production cuts, extensions of production cuts, and production increases [80]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Include the crude oil production and quota of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quota of OPEC+ 19 countries [81]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply**: Provide the crude oil production and export volume dynamic forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [89]. - **OPEC+ Major Member Supply**: Include the dynamic forecasts of crude oil export volumes of Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [110]. - **Supply: US** - **US Policies**: The US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran, and there are various statements and policies from US President Trump regarding oil prices, sanctions, and international trade [115]. - **US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs**: Not detailed in the provided content [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventory in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will lead to a seasonal decline in demand, limiting the upside potential of crude oil. Given the limited upside potential and window period, a short-term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is set. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to make left-side bets on the geopolitical expectations of Russia in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when the oil price drops significantly [14]. - In the medium term, the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and it is more important to grasp the driving rhythm [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: With the improvement of China's macro - situation, INE crude oil has significantly re - evaluated compared with international oil prices this week. Affected by Venezuela's return, crude oil prices briefly declined, and the current oil price remains in the previous oscillation range [14]. - **Supply and Demand Changes**: OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The overall OPEC has begun to fully implement the maximum production increase. The US supply shows price elasticity and maintains dynamic production cuts when oil prices are weak. Iran is expected to return to the global supply, but Russia's shipments are still tight, with the planned port loading volume in August reduced to 1.77 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [14]. - **Macro - Politics**: In the macro - aspect, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, better than expected. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, and Trump said that Japan would invest $550 billion in the US. Politically, Iran started post - war negotiations, but no clear announcement has been given to the market [14]. - **Short - term Impact Factors**: The US policy has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on oil prices; geopolitical factors are neutral to positive [15]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors**: Global supply and demand and macro - politics are generally neutral to negative, and oil prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [19]. 2. Macro & Geopolitics - **Short - term High - Frequency Indicators**: Various macro - indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship with WTI oil prices [36]. - **Medium - term Forecast Indicators**: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption are analyzed [39]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: Important geopolitical events include the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, Libya's plan to increase production, the supply disruption in Iraq's Kurdish region, Venezuela's resumption of production, and Iran's negotiations with E3 [42][43]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 spreads of WTI and Brent crude oils are presented [47]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: The spreads of INE/Brent, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai are analyzed [50][55]. - **Product Spreads**: The forward curves of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oils, as well as the spreads of RB/HO and LGO/RB are shown [57][61]. - **Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented [65][68][71]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC + have a series of production adjustment decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and production increases [77]. - **Supply Situation**: Various data charts show the production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected production outages of OPEC and OPEC + countries [79][84][88]. - **Supply: US** - No detailed content is provided in the given text after the "Supply: US" section.

供需偏多，预期偏空 原油月报 2025/07/04 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03115061 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 CONTENTS 目录 06 原油库存 01 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025 ...