短多维持 裂差向下 原油月报 2025/12/05 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5 ...

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report 2025/10/18 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although current high - frequency macro factors show extreme bearishness, the fundamental and valuation of crude oil itself are overly undervalued. Geopolitical factors are not completely gone, and the current price is approaching the break - even line of North American heavy and light crude oils (WCS & WTI), so there's no need to be overly pessimistic about oil prices. Three high - frequency signals are awaited to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil: 1. Speculative trading returns to activity. 2. North American production cuts similar to previous instances when the break - even line was reached. 3. Middle - East actions to cut exports and support prices similar to previous ones [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil declined continuously this week. Amid uncertainties in macro - trade and expectations of geopolitical easing from US - Russia negotiations, the US once claimed that Japan and India would stop buying Russian oil, but all parties were vague due to the economic benefits of Russian oil, thus failing to provide geopolitical premium for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC had a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US shale oil production increased slightly before, and refinery operations maintained a seasonal decline but are about to enter a small demand peak season. The crack spread of refined oil declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil itself was stronger than the performance of the unit price [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, after the US unilaterally created trade conflicts, US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying oil from Russia and would then try to get China to do the same. Multiple Western countries announced the resumption of sanctions on Iran. The US and Russia had a new round of calls, and Russia agreed to a peace talk proposed by the US. Ukraine faced an energy crisis, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and shadow tankers. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Wait for three high - frequency signals to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil [16]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, which are all related to WTI oil prices [38]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [41]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [44]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [49]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Include Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI spreads [52]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [59]. - **Crack Spreads**: Cover the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [67]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC+ have had a series of production - related decisions since 2023, including production cuts, extensions of production cuts, and production increases [80]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Include the crude oil production and quota of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quota of OPEC+ 19 countries [81]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply**: Provide the crude oil production and export volume dynamic forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [89]. - **OPEC+ Major Member Supply**: Include the dynamic forecasts of crude oil export volumes of Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [110]. - **Supply: US** - **US Policies**: The US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran, and there are various statements and policies from US President Trump regarding oil prices, sanctions, and international trade [115]. - **US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs**: Not detailed in the provided content [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market is healthy. With low inventory in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off-season in mid-August will lead to a seasonal decline in demand, limiting the upside potential of crude oil. Given the limited upside potential and window period, a short-term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is set. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to make left-side bets on the geopolitical expectations of Russia in September and the hurricane supply disruption season when the oil price drops significantly [14]. - In the medium term, the upside potential of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. As OPEC's gradual production increase is implemented, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Since shale oil will still play a supporting role, it is difficult to have a continuous trend market, and it is more important to grasp the driving rhythm [19]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: With the improvement of China's macro - situation, INE crude oil has significantly re - evaluated compared with international oil prices this week. Affected by Venezuela's return, crude oil prices briefly declined, and the current oil price remains in the previous oscillation range [14]. - **Supply and Demand Changes**: OPEC + members agreed to increase oil supply by 550,000 barrels per day in August. The overall OPEC has begun to fully implement the maximum production increase. The US supply shows price elasticity and maintains dynamic production cuts when oil prices are weak. Iran is expected to return to the global supply, but Russia's shipments are still tight, with the planned port loading volume in August reduced to 1.77 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [14]. - **Macro - Politics**: In the macro - aspect, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, better than expected. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, and Trump said that Japan would invest $550 billion in the US. Politically, Iran started post - war negotiations, but no clear announcement has been given to the market [14]. - **Short - term Impact Factors**: The US policy has a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on oil prices; geopolitical factors are neutral to positive [15]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors**: Global supply and demand and macro - politics are generally neutral to negative, and oil prices are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [19]. 2. Macro & Geopolitics - **Short - term High - Frequency Indicators**: Various macro - indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread are presented, showing the relationship with WTI oil prices [36]. - **Medium - term Forecast Indicators**: Eurozone and US investment confidence indices, PMI, GDP growth rate forecasts, and their relationships with oil consumption are analyzed [39]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: Important geopolitical events include the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, Libya's plan to increase production, the supply disruption in Iraq's Kurdish region, Venezuela's resumption of production, and Iran's negotiations with E3 [42][43]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: The WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 spreads of WTI and Brent crude oils are presented [47]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: The spreads of INE/Brent, MRBN/WTI, Brent/WTI, and Brent/Dubai are analyzed [50][55]. - **Product Spreads**: The forward curves of LGO diesel and the near - far structure of refined oils, as well as the spreads of RB/HO and LGO/RB are shown [57][61]. - **Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are presented [65][68][71]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC + have a series of production adjustment decisions from 2023 to 2025, including production cuts, extensions, and production increases [77]. - **Supply Situation**: Various data charts show the production, quota, idle capacity, and unexpected production outages of OPEC and OPEC + countries [79][84][88]. - **Supply: US** - No detailed content is provided in the given text after the "Supply: US" section.

供需偏多，预期偏空 原油月报 2025/07/04 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03115061 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 CONTENTS 目录 06 原油库存 01 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025 ...