来源：New Economist 38万亿！中国财政的家底到底有多少？钱从哪来，又花到哪去了？财政如何连接你我的生活与远方？从 雅鲁藏布江的水电站到育儿补贴，国家账本背后有哪些不为人知的关联？粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒 详解中国财政体系，带你读懂国家治理的基石。 财政无穷无尽的远方都与你我有关， 财政不仅仅只是账房先生， 而是上升到了国家治理的高度。 我们怎么去理解和认识财政？ 中国财政的家底有多厚？ 政府到底有多少的收入？ 这些问题都需要我们深入的思考和理清。 各位朋友大家好，我叫罗志恒，在粤开证券从事宏观经济、财税理论与政策的研究，很高兴今天在《太 学》节目给大家带来"中国财政的家底与未来"的分享。说起财政，大家都非常地熟悉，尤其是"一老一 小"的民生支出，比如育儿补贴的发放以及大家热议的养老金水平的提高，这都是财政的问题。事实 上，在纵向的历史比较、横向的国际比较以及微观的个体感受中，都能发现财政发挥着非常重要的作 用。 从纵向的历史维度看，我们可以看到历朝历代财政都起着非常重要的作用。比如，在王朝的初期，我们 可以看到休养生息、国库充盈，再到王朝的末年，我们可以看到的就是国库空虚和财政的崩溃，当财政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden level while ensuring fiscal sustainability and health, highlighting the importance of tax reform and management in the context of economic governance [2][12]. Tax Burden and Fiscal Policy - Maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden requires finding increments from fair tax burdens, identifying new tax sources, standardizing tax incentives, and adapting to new situations to accelerate tax system construction and improve tax collection [5][11]. - The macro tax burden has been decreasing from 20.36% of GDP in 2017 to an estimated 16.29% in 2024, indicating a trend of significant tax reductions [4][11]. Tax System Reform - The key directions for tax reform include improving local taxes and direct tax systems, refining income tax policies, and standardizing tax incentives to ensure a fair tax burden [2][12]. - The article stresses the importance of adapting tax policies to the changing economic landscape, particularly as new economic drivers emerge [7][10]. Fiscal Management and Sustainability - The article discusses the need for cautious use of fiscal policy space to avoid excessive reliance on debt due to high spending demands and tax reductions [3][11]. - It highlights the importance of optimizing expenditure structures to ensure that funds are allocated to critical areas, particularly in social welfare [11][12]. Zero-Based Budgeting - The implementation of zero-based budgeting is seen as a way to enhance the efficiency of fiscal funds and improve overall fiscal policy effectiveness [15]. - This approach allows for a reassessment of spending priorities, ensuring that funds are directed towards high-performance projects while potentially cutting low-performance expenditures [15]. Government Investment Planning - The introduction of a comprehensive government investment plan aims to clarify government investment accounts and improve management of fiscal resources [16]. - This initiative seeks to address issues of fragmented funding and enhance the overall efficiency of government investments [16]. Economic Growth and Market Vitality - The article underscores the importance of economic growth and market vitality in addressing fiscal challenges, advocating for policies that create a conducive environment for economic expansion [17][18]. - It suggests that enhancing market vitality is crucial for resolving various fiscal issues, emphasizing the need for supportive policies that facilitate economic development [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the cautious use of fiscal policy space while ensuring fiscal sustainability and health development, as highlighted by Yang Zhiyong, the director of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences [1][9] - The "Suggestions" document released on October 28 outlines the importance of active fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability as fundamental requirements for better governance during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10] - Key directions for tax reform include improving local taxes, direct tax systems, and standardizing tax incentives while maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden level [1][2][4] Group 2 - Maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden requires finding increments from fair tax burdens, exploring new tax sources, standardizing tax incentives, and accelerating tax system construction [2][4] - The decline in traditional economic tax sources necessitates timely tax system reforms to effectively convert new economic sources into tax revenue [2][6] - The "Suggestions" also mention strengthening fiscal scientific management, deepening zero-based budgeting reforms, and enhancing local financial autonomy [2][11] Group 3 - The distinction between "maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden" and "stabilizing macro tax burden" lies in aligning tax burden levels with fiscal functions and governance needs [3][4] - From 2017 to 2024, the macro tax burden has been decreasing, with fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping from 20.36% to 16.29% [3][4] - The need for a balanced approach between expenditure demands and taxpayers' capacity is crucial for determining a reasonable macro tax burden [3][4] Group 4 - The necessity of optimizing expenditure structure while maintaining expenditure intensity is highlighted, with a significant portion of fiscal spending directed towards people's livelihoods [10][11] - The "Suggestions" propose a comprehensive government investment plan to enhance clarity and management of government investments, addressing issues of fragmented fiscal resources [14][15] - The focus on economic growth and market vitality is essential for addressing fiscal challenges and ensuring a conducive policy environment for economic development [16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the role of proactive fiscal policy in enhancing fiscal sustainability, indicating that fiscal measures will continue to support economic growth, employment, structural optimization, and improving people's livelihoods over the next five years [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Direction - China will maintain a proactive fiscal policy approach, which has been effective since the 2008 financial crisis, while also addressing the need for enhanced fiscal sustainability [2][3]. - The fiscal deficit rate has increased from 2.7% to 3.8% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations to rise to 4% by 2025 [2]. Revenue and Expenditure Challenges - The growth of fiscal revenue faces constraints, with traditional key tax sectors slowing down, while emerging industries and the digital economy grow rapidly but contribute less to tax revenue [2]. - There is a persistent demand for fiscal expenditure in key areas such as consumption promotion, investment expansion, and employment stabilization, leading to increased pressure on fiscal balance [2]. Tax Policy Optimization - The proposal calls for the optimization of tax incentives and maintaining a reasonable macro tax burden, with tax revenue as a primary source of fiscal income [4][5]. - The tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is projected to be below 13% in 2024, a decrease of about 2 percentage points from 2021, indicating a need to reverse the low tax revenue situation [4]. Central and Local Fiscal Responsibilities - The proposal suggests enhancing central fiscal responsibilities while increasing local fiscal capabilities, addressing the imbalance in fiscal responsibilities between central and local governments [5][6]. - There is a need to optimize the sharing of tax revenues, particularly in shared taxes like corporate and personal income taxes, to alleviate local fiscal pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal sustainability through active fiscal policies and structural adjustments in tax policies to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Management - The proposal suggests strengthening fiscal management and resource allocation, focusing on major national strategic tasks and basic livelihood financial support [1]. - It advocates for the deepening of zero-based budgeting reforms and optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditures [1]. - The need for a reasonable macro tax burden level is highlighted, with a call for structural adjustments to existing tax reduction policies [1][2]. Group 2: Tax Policy Adjustments - The article outlines three key areas for tax policy adjustments: 1. Cleaning up unnecessary tax incentives and enhancing the precision of tax benefits in critical areas like technological innovation and small enterprises [2]. 2. Adjusting tax burdens in a way that minimally impacts ordinary residents while promoting green development and reducing income inequality [2]. 3. Exploring new tax sources based on economic conditions, such as digital asset taxes and carbon taxes [2]. Group 3: Government Debt Management - A long-term mechanism for government debt management aligned with high-quality development is essential, focusing on establishing hard budget constraints for local governments to mitigate debt risks [2]. - Recommendations include creating a comprehensive local government debt monitoring system and enhancing transparency in debt information [2]. - The article suggests promoting the transformation of local financing platforms and strengthening accountability for illegal financing [2].