固定收益点评报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告 12 月财政数据点评：收支承压，紧平衡加据 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 事件：2026 年 1 月 30 日，财政部公布了 2025 年全国财政收支情况。一 般公共预算收入 21.6 万亿元，一般公共预算支出 28.7 万亿元；政府性基 金收入 5.77 万亿元，政府性基金支出 11.29 万亿元。 核心观点：2025 年 12 月财政运行呈现"收入大幅下滑、支出降幅收窄"的 显著特征，全年看财政主要指标"收入略欠、支出滞后、基金缺口扩大"， 均未完全达到年初预算目标。同时，结构性矛盾突出，中央收入大幅下降， 拖累一般公共预算收入转负；财政支出增速持续回落，资金落地节奏偏缓； 土地出让金收入疲软，拖累政府性基金收支。往后看，在财政紧平衡格局 下，收入端修复仍面临内需疲软和盈利承压双重约束，支出端更依赖加快 资金拨付和形成实物工作量对冲下行压力。重点关注"提高资金使用效率、 推动跨年项目加速落地" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a weakening trend in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure data for 2025, with a notable slowdown in revenue growth and a narrowing decline in expenditure [2][5][9] - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the growth rate from January to October [2][5] - Tax revenue for the same period totaled 164,814 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while November's fiscal revenue was 1.4 trillion yuan, remaining flat compared to the same month in 2024 [2][5] Group 2 - On the expenditure side, from January to November, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 1.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous ten months [2][8] - In November, the year-on-year expenditure growth rate was -3.7%, an improvement from October's -9.8%, but still at a low level due to last year's low base [2][8] - The structure of expenditure showed a decline in infrastructure spending, with a cumulative growth rate of -7.7%, while social welfare spending increased by 8.1% [8] Group 3 - The government fund revenue continued to be under pressure from the real estate sector, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9% from January to November 2025, and a significant drop of 15.8% in November alone [7] - The income from land use rights transfer saw a narrowing decline of 26.8%, indicating ongoing weakness in real estate demand [7] - Non-tax revenue has been in negative growth since May, with November's year-on-year decline narrowing to 10.8% from 32.8% in October, but still constraining overall revenue growth [6][7]

Revenue Insights - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with November's revenue flat compared to the same month in 2024, marking a marginal decline from October's 3.2% growth[10] - Tax revenue increased by 1.8% year-on-year for the same period, with November's growth at 2.8%, down from 8.6% in October, primarily due to a higher base effect[12] - Corporate income tax revenue saw a significant decline, turning negative year-on-year, while individual income tax and value-added tax revenues performed relatively well[12] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, with November's expenditure declining by 3.7%, an improvement from October's 9.8% decline[15] - Central and local fiscal expenditures in November showed year-on-year growth rates of 4.9% and -5.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in central spending despite a contraction in local spending[15] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first eleven months, with November's revenue down by 15.8%, largely due to a slowdown in the real estate market[19] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with November's growth at 2.8%, a significant recovery from October's -38.2%[19] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy remains tight, with moderate revenue growth placing constraints on expenditure, necessitating a focus on enhancing internal demand for revenue improvement[20] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and improved fund efficiency[20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of China's fiscal system, emphasizing its role as a foundation for national governance and its connection to various aspects of life, from infrastructure projects to social welfare programs [2][3][35]. Group 1: Understanding Fiscal Importance - Fiscal policy is not merely about accounting but is elevated to the level of national governance, impacting economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological dimensions [7][40]. - Historical comparisons show that fiscal stability is crucial for maintaining governmental legitimacy and public service provision [4][37]. - The relationship between government functions and fiscal scale is highlighted, indicating that government responsibilities dictate the necessary fiscal resources [7][44]. Group 2: Fiscal Revenue Sources - China's fiscal revenue is primarily derived from taxation, with the general public budget projected to reach 22 trillion yuan in 2024, of which 17.5 trillion yuan (approximately 79.6%) comes from taxes [50]. - Additional revenue sources include land transfer income and state-owned capital operating budgets, which are unique to China's socialist public ownership system [47][48]. - The social insurance fund budget is also significant, with an expected income of 11.9 trillion yuan in 2024, including contributions from both individuals and government subsidies [52]. Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure Structure - The general public budget expenditure is projected at 28.5 trillion yuan for 2024, leading to a deficit that will be covered by borrowing and land sale revenues [54]. - Major expenditure categories include social welfare (4.2 trillion yuan), education (4.2 trillion yuan), and healthcare (2 trillion yuan), indicating a shift towards investing in human capital [22][54]. - Infrastructure spending remains important but has decreased in relative terms compared to social welfare investments, reflecting a broader trend in fiscal priorities [23][54]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Outlook - The future of China's fiscal policy may be characterized by a tight balance due to slowing economic growth and the transition from old to new economic drivers [28]. - The need for reform in government-market relations and the central-local government dynamics is emphasized to ensure efficient fiscal management and social equity [29][30]. - Maintaining a stable macro tax burden is crucial for effective fiscal policy implementation and social welfare improvements [30].