英国财政大臣里夫斯：我们希望拥有更多的财政空间，但这将付出一定的代价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMF emphasizes the need for policymakers to focus on addressing trade tensions and implementing macroeconomic policies to tackle potential domestic imbalances in the face of ongoing downside risks and high uncertainty [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Policymakers should restore fiscal space and ensure that debt remains at sustainable levels to maintain economic stability [1] - Monetary policy must be carefully adjusted according to each country's specific circumstances, with clear and consistent communication [1] - The independence of central banks must be protected to ensure effective monetary policy [1] Group 2: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are crucial for enhancing productivity, supporting job creation, and leveraging new technologies to promote medium-term growth [1] - These reforms are also essential for offsetting demographic changes [1]

Group 1: Economic Context - The current US-China tariff war has entered a temporary easing and negotiation phase, but high tariffs and Trump's unpredictable stance suggest a prolonged struggle ahead[1] - The outcome of the tariff war will ultimately depend on the economic resilience and fiscal space of both countries, as evidenced by historical conflicts[1] Group 2: Economic Impact of the Tariff War - Economic shocks from the tariff war can lead to growth declines and resource depletion, with the party that stabilizes its economy having a stronger negotiating position[2] - The tariff war has created a "triple whammy" for the US, prompting it to seek negotiations due to rising financial risks[2] Group 3: Fiscal Space Comparison - China's fiscal space is greater than that of the US, providing it with a stronger position in the tariff war[2] - Key indicators show that from 2004 to 2024, China's average fiscal deficit rate is 3.5%, while the US's is 6.0%[16] - As of 2024, China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is 60.9%, significantly lower than the US's 124.1%[15] Group 4: Debt and Financing Costs - China's government bond issuance rates are on a downward trend, with an average rate of 1.68% in May 2025, compared to the US's 4.29%[32] - In 2024, China's interest payments accounted for only 1.6% of GDP, while the US's was 3.8%, indicating a lower debt service burden for China[41] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Stability - China's current low inflation environment, with a CPI growth rate of -0.1% in May 2025, allows for greater fiscal expansion without the risk of high inflation[51] - In contrast, the US is experiencing higher inflation pressures, with a CPI growth rate of 2.4% in May 2025, complicating its fiscal situation[51]