新华社北京12月19日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提 出："加快构建同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理长效机制。"这对进一步做好政府债务管理和风险防 范化解工作提出了明确要求。 第二，健全防范化解隐性债务风险长效机制。完善全口径地方债务监测监管体系，加强部门协同和数据 信息共享，多措并举化解存量隐性债务，坚决遏制新增隐性债务，防止前清后欠。将不新增隐性债务作 为"铁的纪律"，加强政府支出事项和政府投资项目预算管理，未纳入预算安排的政府支出事项和投资项 目一律不得实施。强化风险监测预警，从事后"救火补漏"扩展到事前"防患于未然"。严格落实地方政府 举债终身问责制和债务问题倒查机制，加强对违规违法举债问题的监督问责，加大问责结果公开力度， 发挥典型案例警示作用。 第三，加强地方政府专项债券管理。完善债务限额分配机制，优化项目申报审批流程，加强项目实施和 资金使用监管，强化地方政府专项债券"借用管还"全流程管理，提高资金使用效益。改进完善地方政府 专项债券偿还机制，强化对专项债券对应项目所形成资产的监管，健全专项债券偿债备付金管理机制， 加强专项债券项目收入缴库管理和偿债资金筹集， ...

中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元"补给"地方，正在顺利落地。近期，多个省份明确了 预算调整方案，对债券使用作出安排。5000亿元增量资金将向经济发展注入新的动能，有力支持地方完 成今年经济社会发展目标任务，推动"十五五"良好开局。 优化政府债务规模结构，增强财政可持续性。实施更加积极的财政政策，既要充分发挥政府债务的作 用，也不能"寅吃卯粮"，这就需要全面评估政府偿债能力、举债空间和债务风险，科学合理确定赤字 率、举债规模。优化中央和地方政府债务结构，科学合理安排地方政府债务规模。一般国债、超长期特 别国债、地方政府一般债券、专项债券规模等各类债券具有不同的功能、作用，通过优化结构、组合运 用，更好地适应经济社会发展和宏观调控需要。 强化债券发行使用管理，提高政府债券效能。近年来我国持续加强政府债券发行、资金分配使用管理， 形成法定债务"闭环"管理制度体系。严管理、提效能的空间还不小。专项债券方面，需要继续优化完善 管理，健全"借、用、管、还"全生命周期管理机制，防止低效、无效投资，更好发挥强基础、补短板、 惠民生、扩投资等积极作用。完善专项债券偿还机制，确保按时足额还本付息，防范偿还风险。超 ...

"十五五"规划建议提出，加快构建同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理长效机制。这就要求，一方面， 科学有效管理好政府债务，发挥政府债券作用，促进高质量发展；另一方面，统筹发展和安全，切实防 范化解地方政府债务风险。 优化政府债务规模结构，增强财政可持续性。实施更加积极的财政政策，既要充分发挥政府债务的作 用，也不能"寅吃卯粮"，这就需要全面评估政府偿债能力、举债空间和债务风险，科学合理确定赤字 率、举债规模。优化中央和地方政府债务结构，科学合理安排地方政府债务规模。一般国债、超长期特 别国债、地方政府一般债券、专项债券规模等各类债券具有不同的功能、作用，通过优化结构、组合运 用，更好地适应经济社会发展和宏观调控需要。 强化债券发行使用管理，提高政府债券效能。近年来我国持续加强政府债券发行、资金分配使用管理， 形成法定债务"闭环"管理制度体系。严管理、提效能的空间还不小。专项债券方面，需要继续优化完善 管理，健全"借、用、管、还"全生命周期管理机制，防止低效、无效投资，更好发挥强基础、补短板、 惠民生、扩投资等积极作用。完善专项债券偿还机制，确保按时足额还本付息，防范偿还风险。超长期 特别国债方面，也需要科学评估政 ...

构建同高质量发展相适应的政府债务管理长效机制，一方面，要科学有效管理好政府债务，发挥政府债 券的作用，促进高质量发展；另一方面，要统筹发展和安全，切实防范化解地方政府债务风险。 优化政府债务规模结构，增强财政可持续性。实施更加积极的财政政策，既要充分发挥政府债务的作 用，也不能"寅吃卯粮"，这就需要全面评估政府偿债能力、举债空间和债务风险，科学合理确定赤字 率、举债规模。优化中央和地方政府债务结构，科学合理安排地方政府债务规模。一般国债、超长期特 别国债、地方政府一般债券、专项债券规模等各类债券具有不同的功能、作用，通过优化结构、组合运 用，更好地适应经济社会发展和宏观调控需要。 强化债券发行使用管理，提高政府债券效能。近年来我国持续加强政府债券发行、资金分配使用管理， 形成法定债务"闭环"管理制度体系。严管理、提效能的空间还不小。专项债券方面，需要继续优化完善 管理，健全"借、用、管、还"全生命周期管理机制，防止低效、无效投资，更好发挥强基础、补短板、 惠民生、扩投资等积极作用。完善专项债券偿还机制，确保按时足额还本付息，防范偿还风险。超长期 特别国债方面，也需要科学评估政策实施情况，优化完善政策安排，加强 ...

在房地产领域，我国坚持短期政策与长期政策并行，短期政策包括做好保交楼工作，调整优化房地产金 融政策，为房地产企业流动性纾困等；长期政策则是构建房地产发展新模式，疏解房地产行业长期风险 的积累。住建部建立城市房地产融资协调机制，实施项目"白名单"制度。截至9月底，"白名单"项目贷 款超过7万亿元，支持近2000万套住房建设交付，较5月初1600多万套的数据进一步增加。 中信证券首席经济学家明明团队指出，明年有关于房地产的政策将持续优化，或推出房地产稳定基金、 保障性住房收储等举措，以缓解库存压力，稳定房企流动性，长期来看，户籍制度改革、土地制度改 革、租购并举住房体系完善等方面有望成为房地产长效机制的重要组成部分。 在地方化债方面，"6+4+2"化债"组合拳"稳步推进，化债资金规模远超年初既定的2.8万亿元，总体来 看，地方政府债务风险逐步收敛，风险总体安全可控，不过当前地方政府债务管理和风险防范化解还存 在一些问题，部分地方政府偿债压力仍然较大。"十五五"规划建议中提出，加快构建同高质量发展相适 应的政府债务管理长效机制。 12月8日召开的中央政治局会议提出，坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。这延续了" ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 信用债收益率延续低位调整 ——信用分析周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 投资要点： 本周信用热点事件：（1）从"十五五"规划建议看各地债务风险防控思路："构建 政府债务管理长效机制"是共识、"盘活存量资源资产"是重要举措；（2）吴清： 健全多层次债券市场体系，大力发展科创债券、绿色债券；（3）交易商协会制定发 布《关于优化并购票据相关工作机制的通知》。 本周市场概览： 联系人 1）一级市场：本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上周均有所减少；资 产支持证券净融资额环比上周增加 32 亿元。本周 AA 产业债、金融债发行利率较上 周有较大幅度上升，其余不同评级不同券种的发行利率波动幅度不超过 20BP。 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 567 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is accelerating the establishment of a long-term mechanism for government debt management that aligns with high-quality development, emphasizing the importance of reasonable debt scale and structure to support modernization and economic stability [2][11]. Debt Scale and Structure - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need for an active fiscal policy, which includes appropriate debt increases to stabilize investment and expand domestic demand [3]. - Future trends indicate that the scale of government debt in China may continue to expand, with a focus on legal debt growth while reducing hidden debts [7][8]. - As of the end of 2023, China's total government debt is projected to reach 85 trillion yuan, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, which is considered manageable [8]. Debt Management Mechanism - The government aims to optimize the debt structure, particularly the relationship between central and local government debts, to enhance macroeconomic stability and reduce overall debt costs [12][16]. - The central government’s debt is significantly lower than that of local governments, suggesting room for increased leverage at the central level to boost effective demand [12][14]. Future Debt Strategy - The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned to support major national strategies and economic recovery, with significant amounts allocated for 2024 and 2025 [14]. - The government intends to clarify the nature and purpose of different types of bonds, ensuring that regular bonds are used for routine expenditures while special bonds address strategic needs [15]. Fiscal Reforms and Monitoring - The establishment of a comprehensive monitoring system for local government debt and a dynamic risk warning system is essential for sustainable debt management [16]. - Recommendations include enhancing the transparency of debt information and improving the assessment of local government debt sustainability [16].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Debt Management Division by the Ministry of Finance is a key measure to implement a long-term government debt management mechanism that aligns with high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][6]. Group 1: Establishment of the Debt Management Division - The Debt Management Division has been added to the Ministry of Finance's organizational structure, indicating a shift towards centralized management of government debt [1][2]. - Prior to the establishment of this division, government debt management functions were dispersed across various departments, leading to inefficiencies and high coordination costs [5][6]. - The new division will unify the management of central and local, explicit and implicit, domestic and foreign debts, enhancing management efficiency and professionalism [7][8]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Functions - The main responsibilities of the Debt Management Division include formulating and executing domestic debt management policies, managing government debt issuance and repayment, and monitoring hidden debt risks [6][7]. - The division is structured to cover all aspects of debt management, creating a closed-loop management system that includes regulation, issuance, usage, repayment, monitoring, and accountability [7][8]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The establishment of a unified management body is expected to facilitate a sustainable path towards "debt management in development" by creating a long-term mechanism and dynamic debt monitoring system [8][9]. - There is an emphasis on linking local government debt with land transfer income and state-owned asset operation revenues, exploring mechanisms that determine spending based on income and effectiveness [9][10]. - The division aims to strengthen collaboration between central and local debt management institutions, forming a vertical management chain [10].

Core Insights - The establishment of the "Debt Management Department" by the Ministry of Finance signifies a dedicated approach to managing government debt, addressing the previous fragmented oversight of national and local debts [1] - China's government debt has been increasing, necessitating enhanced management practices, despite the country's debt-to-GDP ratio being lower than that of major economies and emerging markets [1] - The total government debt is projected to reach 82.1 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with local government hidden debt at 10.5 trillion yuan, highlighting the need for improved regulatory frameworks [1] - Government debt is a crucial driver of economic development, and the Ministry of Finance aims to utilize a unified approach to manage various debt instruments effectively [1] - The establishment of the Debt Management Department indicates a commitment to ongoing risk control of local government debt, with a focus on creating a long-term regulatory mechanism [2] Summary by Sections - **Debt Management Structure** - The new department will centralize the management of various government debt instruments, enhancing policy coordination and effectiveness [1] - The previous system involved multiple departments, which is now replaced by a specialized agency [1] - **Debt Levels and Economic Context** - China's total government debt is set to reach 82.1 trillion yuan, with local hidden debt at 10.5 trillion yuan, indicating significant debt levels [1] - The government aims to leverage its relatively healthy balance sheet to stimulate effective demand through increased fiscal spending [1] - **Regulatory Improvements** - The establishment of the Debt Management Department is part of a broader initiative to create a sustainable debt management mechanism aligned with high-quality development goals [2] - The department will focus on reducing hidden local government debt, reforming financing platforms, and enhancing monitoring systems for local debt [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on enhancing public welfare and effective market-government interaction [1][3][4] - The article outlines key measures for proactive fiscal policy, including expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and ensuring high-quality development while improving people's livelihoods [1][4][6] - The establishment of the Debt Management Department within the Ministry of Finance signifies a shift towards systematic governance of government debt, integrating various debt management functions for better oversight [2][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, highlighting the challenges of maintaining fiscal sustainability amid rising expenditure demands and constrained revenue growth [4][5][8] - It emphasizes the importance of preventing and resolving local government debt risks, advocating for a disciplined approach to managing hidden debts and optimizing debt structures [6][9] - The article suggests that achieving the goal of eliminating hidden debts by 2028 is feasible, with key years identified for addressing local debt risks and improving the overall debt management framework [9][10]