投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于短期内央行全面降息的预期回落，国债期货上行动能减 弱。央行在政策发力方向强调与财政政策协同发力，这意味着货币政策与财政政策类似，将偏向结构 性宽松。不过宏观经济指标有所走弱，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来降息预期仍存 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. The macro - economic indicators are marginally weakening, and the market's expectation of monetary easing in the future is rising, providing strong support at the bottom of Treasury bond futures. Before the policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18, the market sentiment is waiting and watching [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the macro - economic indicators are marginally weakening [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that yesterday, all Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range. The short - term impact of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations not reaching further substantial progress is gradually dissipating. The recently announced macro - economic data has weakened, and the market's expectation of future monetary easing has increased. In the short term, financial policies need to wait for the policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate due to the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The macro - economic indicators are weakening, increasing the expectation of monetary policy easing, but short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, so the Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term (within one week) view is to oscillate, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) view is to oscillate, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, and the overall view is to oscillate. The core logic is the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated. The inflation data in May continued to weaken, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators increased the expectation of monetary policy easing, pushing down the Treasury bond yield. Although the uncertainty of the tariff outlook deepens and the domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. With the market's interest - rate cut expectation basically zero, the expectation of future easing policies will increase, providing strong support for the bottom of Treasury bond futures. However, short - term interest rate cuts are difficult to implement, and the downward space for market interest rates is limited, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]