近期，市场维持横盘震荡，三大指数均出现一定的震荡调整，量能也有所减少。但是白银价格却屡创新高，涨幅更是一骑绝尘，引发市场广泛关注，也吸 引大量资金涌入。 图片来源：东方财富网 那么白银上涨的原因到底是什么？未来又会如何呢？ 9月26日，国际白银价格突破46美元/盎司，创下自2010年以来的14年新高。而在2024年，白银的平均价格为28.27美元/盎司，2023年为23.35美元/盎司。 也就是说，在过去六个月内，现货白银累计涨幅已超过30%，表现远超多数大宗商品，年内涨幅更是达到59%，也超过黄金的43%涨幅。 国内市场方面，白银期货同样表现亮眼。9月25日沪银主力2512合约收于10632元/千克，当日涨幅达2.27%，创出该品种上市以来历史新高。 那么白银近期的强势上涨，到底是因为什么？能否延续呢？ | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

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Market Overview - The US dollar index continued its rebound, reaching a daily high of 97.81 before closing up 0.33% at 97.67, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - Spot gold surged by $50 from its low, closing up 1.12% at $3685.47 per ounce, achieving its fifth consecutive weekly gain [1] - Spot silver closed up 2.94% at $43.03 per ounce [1] Key News Summary - The US dollar index rose on Friday, with Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggesting continued rate cuts in the coming months, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari advocating for two more rate cuts this year, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [2] - The US House Republican funding bill failed to pass in the Senate, increasing the risk of government shutdown and exacerbating market volatility due to partisan divisions [2] - The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued, with Trump planning discussions with Arab leaders regarding a ceasefire in Gaza and Israeli officials seeking to expand sovereignty in the West Bank [2] - Citigroup raised its three-month gold price target to $3800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [2] Trading Strategy - Expectations of monetary policy easing, combined with political and geopolitical uncertainties, are providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3550 and may test the $3800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, could see upward movement towards $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Overall, any pullbacks present buying opportunities, as gold and silver remain in a long-term bullish market trend [3]

Group 1 - Precious metals market rebounds strongly after a brief correction, with silver reaching a 14-year high and leading the gains in the gold and silver sector [1] - As of 11:00 AM, New York silver rose by 1.50% to $43.58 per ounce, while Shanghai silver surged by 3.07% to ¥10,243 per kilogram [1] - Gold also experienced upward movement, with New York gold futures increasing by 0.43% to $3,721.8 per ounce, and Shanghai gold rising by 1.25% to ¥840.16 per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is driven by speculative sentiment and growing industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The gold-silver ratio in the domestic market is around 83, while the international market is approximately 85, indicating potential for silver price correction as it remains above the historical range of 60-80 [1] - Multiple factors, including speculative sentiment, industrial fundamentals, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to enhance silver's price elasticity compared to gold [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, as indicated by officials, reinforces market expectations for continued monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly boosting global market risk aversion and providing strong support for gold and silver prices [2] - The ongoing restructuring of military alliances in the region and the anticipated long-term conflicts are likely to sustain demand for gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [2] Group 4 - Overall, expectations of monetary policy easing, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with bullish sentiment from institutions, are driving upward momentum in gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, key support for New York gold has risen to around $3,600, with potential to reach $3,800, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, aims for a target of $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Market corrections are viewed as opportunities for positioning, with gold and silver expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metal prices surged significantly on Monday, with gold auction prices reaching a record high of $3,475 per troy ounce, and spot gold briefly surpassing the $3,500 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [1] - Silver prices also rose sharply, reaching a fourteen-year high, highlighting the overall strength in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Price Increase - The primary catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, triggered by actions from the U.S. government that are perceived as direct interference in monetary policy [2] - This political intervention has led to heightened risk aversion among investors, resulting in significant capital inflows into the gold market as a hedge against increasing political uncertainty [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - Clear expectations for monetary policy easing have also provided strong support for rising precious metal prices, with recent statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman signaling a more accommodative stance [3] - The market's expectation of a rate cut in the upcoming September policy meeting has risen to over 75%, which is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices [3] Group 4: Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 30%, while silver has seen a rise of more than 40%, marking a historic bull market for precious metals [4] - Central banks' ongoing purchases of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the dollar have been a significant factor supporting gold prices [4] - Concerns over geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation risks, and the potential health of the U.S. economy have further reinforced the safe-haven attributes and inflation-hedging value of precious metals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday bias towards being volatile on the stronger side. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For major varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation is that Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation phase in the short term. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. Since the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate has emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. Treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded since August. The rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market has led to a decline in the demand for Treasury bonds, putting short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - economic data in the first half of the year showed strong resilience, and the policy side emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to further reduce the cost of real - entity financing, increasing the expectation of future loosening [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the expectation of loose monetary policy and low short - term interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The logic includes the oscillation and pull - back of Treasury bond futures yesterday, the anchoring effect of the policy rate on the market interest rate, the bottoming - out and rebound of Treasury bond futures since August, the impact of the stock market on Treasury bond demand, and the expectation of future monetary policy loosening [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold and silver markets may experience strong oscillations. It's not advisable to chase short - term long positions in gold currently. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended in the range of [770 - 796]. Silver has a positive long - term upward trend with a recommended range of [9100 - 9360] [2][97][99] - Multiple factors such as weak US data, high interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical and trade frictions, and industrial demand structure support the rise of gold and silver prices [97] - In the long - term, central bank gold purchases, weakening US dollar credit, and inflation risks support the gold market [98] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic industrial products follow the "governance of low prices" logic - Domestic industrial products were active this week. The black variety sector rose significantly with the Wenhua Black Chain Commodity Index up over 4%. The new energy index rose 4.29%, and the precious metal index rose 2.91% [12][15] 2. US data dropped significantly, and interest - rate cut expectations are strong - US economic data showed weakness. Unemployment data worsened, and inflation expectations were affected by tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September reached 100% probability, with an expected 2 - 3 rate cuts throughout the year [11][27][28] 3. China's import and export data are resilient, and attention is paid to the stabilization of the real estate market - From January to July, China's exports and imports showed positive trends. The export growth rate to non - US countries was strong, offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The real estate market in 30 large - and medium - sized cities had a significant decline in transactions, while the land transactions in 100 large - scale cities increased month - on - month [61][63][67] 4. Supported by multiple factors, gold and silver rose significantly this week - Affected by factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff changes, and central bank gold purchases, gold and silver prices rose. The net gold purchase volume of global central banks decreased in the second quarter of 2025, but 95% of central banks are expected to continue to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 9 consecutive months. The supply - demand gap of silver in 2025 is expected to narrow [81][92][93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is that they will fluctuate in the short - term, with the short - term view of TL2509 being fluctuating, the medium - term view being fluctuating, and the intraday view being fluctuating and slightly stronger. The general reference view is fluctuating [1][5]. - Although the demand for Treasury bonds has been somewhat suppressed since July due to the rapid increase in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The upward and downward space for market interest rates is limited in the short - term, so Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | Fluctuation | Fluctuation | Fluctuation and slightly stronger | Fluctuation | There is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short - term is low [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is fluctuating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is fluctuating, and the reference view is fluctuating [5]. - **Core Logic**: Since July, the demand for Treasury bonds has been affected by the rise in stock market risk appetite, strong internal economic fundamentals, and the easing of external risk factors, resulting in weak performance of Treasury bond futures. However, the future policy will remain moderately loose, and the expectation of monetary easing still exists. As market interest rates approach policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited. In the short - term, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate [5].

Market Performance - The defense and military, machinery equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 3.06%, 1.93%, and 1.87% respectively [1] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.66%, while the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 0.39% and 0.46% respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The defense and military sector is driven by the dual momentum of the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, alongside increased demand due to international geopolitical conflicts [2] - The machinery equipment sector benefits from the upcoming implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth stabilization plan and equipment renewal policies, with the manufacturing PMI returning to an expansion zone [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector is supported by a robust supply-demand dynamic, with industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and rare earths benefiting from infrastructure and new energy demands, while strategic metals like germanium and antimony are experiencing price premiums due to export controls [2] Weak Sectors - The retail sector is facing challenges due to the U.S. suspension of small-value tax exemptions, which may increase cash flow pressures for companies and suppress expansion expectations [2] - The oil and petrochemical sector is negatively impacted by OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices [2] - The social services sector is experiencing notable outflows of main funds, compounded by rapid sector rotation, resulting in declines [2] Future Outlook - The A-share market has shown adjustments amid internal and external disturbances, with increased market divergence [3] - The temporary relief from U.S.-China tariff pressures has not fully alleviated risks, as factors like delayed Fed rate cuts and domestic policy not exceeding expectations continue to suppress risk appetite [3] - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies and capacity governance, shifting the policy focus from short-term stimulus to structural optimization, which may strengthen market positioning in the medium to long term [3]