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农林牧渔2025年7月投资策略:布局牧业大周期,推荐宠物与生猪标的
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-11 08:24
Group 1: Core Views - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, highlighting a favorable investment environment for livestock, pet, and pork industries [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes the potential reversal of the beef cycle in 2025, with expectations of rising prices driven by both domestic and international markets [14][21] - The pet industry is identified as a high-growth sector, benefiting from changing consumer demographics and increasing emotional spending [15][18] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations for the livestock sector include Guangming Meat Industry, a rare listed beef company with stable resources from New Zealand, and Muyuan Foods, a leading player in pig farming [1][3][18] - In the pet food sector, Zhongchong Co. is highlighted as a pioneer with synchronized growth in domestic and international markets [1][3][18] - For the pork industry, the report recommends companies such as DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from improving cash flows and dividend ratios [1][3][16] Group 3: Market Trends and Data - As of June 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.85% [2][21] - The report notes a decrease in the price of 7kg piglets to 433 yuan/head, down 13.95% month-on-month, indicating a cautious approach to industry expansion [2][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing increased supply, with expectations of demand recovery, particularly for yellow chickens, which are anticipated to benefit from domestic demand improvements [28][39]