黑色：反弹空间有限 关注期现正套 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-01-12 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：反弹空间有限 关注期现正套 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块集体走强，焦煤领涨，就指数涨跌幅度而言，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>焦炭>铁矿>螺纹>热卷，从整个期 货市场来看，氛围偏暖，商品价格普涨，有色板块仍然最强。宏观政策方面：海外政局动荡，全球不确定性加剧；国内部分行业通报有 关垄断风险，后期行业"反内卷"需规避垄断风险。供需格局方面：上周钢材产量增、需求降，库存开始累积；原料端，煤矿产能核减消 息尚需进一步证实，关注节前钢厂补库节奏。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本以上，目前略低于平电成本，静态估值中性； | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 驱动方面，短期处于政策真空期，今年我国对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在走弱预期， | 反弹空间有限，关注期 | | | 关注1月份钢材周度出港数据，产业方面，上周钢材产量增、需 ...

市场监管总局要求中国光伏行业协会及被约谈企业不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量及销售价格；不 得通过出资比例，以任何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得当前、今后就价格、成本、产 销量等信息开展沟通协调。据媒体获悉，市场监管总局还要求协会及被约谈企业在1月20日前向市场监 管总局提交书面整改措施。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 03800 | 协鑫科技 | 1.060 | -7.02% | | 00757 | 阳光能源 | 0.080 | -3.61% | | 01799 | 新特能源 | 7.170 | -3.50% | | 00451 | 协鑫新能源 | 1.280 | -1.54% | | 01108 | 凯盛新能 | 3.880 | -1.02% | | 06862 | 福菜特玻璃 | 10.240 | -0.97% | | 00968 | 信义光能 | 3.200 | -0.93% | | 00868 | 信义玻璃 | 8.670 | -0.69% | | 03606 | 福耀玻璃 | 67.150 | -0.15% ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern about potential monopoly risks during the polysilicon capacity integration process has intensified, causing the polysilicon futures to hit the daily limit down. In the short - term, prices may decline due to emotional impacts. In the long - term, the process of eliminating backward production capacity will continue, and policy trends and the progress of solving monopoly issues need to be further observed [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - Polysilicon futures significantly corrected, with the main contract price dropping to 53,610 yuan/ton. The market is still digesting the expectation of state reserve purchases. After the exchange restricted liquidity, the open interest of the polysilicon futures has been decreasing, dragging down the market. Discussions around "self - discipline" and "integration" in the polysilicon industry have increased, raising concerns about compliance boundaries and competition sufficiency [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply - demand of polysilicon remains relatively loose. In the supply side, production in Southwest China decreased after entering the dry season, and the domestic polysilicon output in December was below 120,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises may adopt a strategy of reducing production and lightening sales in the first - quarter off - season, and supply may further decline. In the demand side, the output of downstream industries decreased significantly in December and January, and the support from the demand side to the upstream is still limited. Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon have risen. The average transaction price of polysilicon lump - material was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%, and that of n - type granular silicon was 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5%. It is expected that inventory may accumulate slightly in January [3]. Summary and Strategy - For upstream industry investors, hedging operations can be considered when prices are high. For institutional investors, due to large short - term fluctuations, they can choose to wait and see [4].

1月8日，中国证券报·中证金牛座记者从业内人士处核实，本次约谈确有其事。市场监管总局要求中国 光伏行业协会及被约谈企业不得约定产能、产能利用率、产销量及销售价格；不得通过出资比例，以任 何形式进行市场划分、产量分配、利润分配；不得当前、今后就价格、成本、产销量等信息开展沟通协 调。市场监管总局还要求协会及被约谈企业在1月20日前向市场监管总局提交书面整改措施。 （文章来源：中国证券报） 日前有市场传闻称，市场监管总局约谈了中国光伏行业协会、通威集团、协鑫科技、大全能源、新特能 源、亚洲硅业（红狮）、东方希望，约谈内容涉及通报有关垄断风险，提出明确整改意见并对企业做好 整改工作提出要求等。 ...

KPPU指出，其中之一是，此次收购将印尼实物商品电子商务市场（电子类、时尚类、日用品、家居家 具、玩具等品类）的两个参与者合并为一体，导致市场集中度显著提升。"整体评估表明，由于单边效 应，收购后可能出现价格上涨的情况。" KPPU还强调，此次交易存在强大的网络效应，最终可能因不公平竞争损害多方利益，包括中小微企业 和消费者。 6月6日，观察者网获悉，TikTok Shop和Tokopedia日前就印尼商业竞争监督委员会（KPPU）指出的潜在 垄断行为或不正当商业竞争风险作出了回应，表示将尊重调查程序，并与KPPU合作。 "我们尊重仍在进行的调查程序，并准备好与KPPU合作，回应各方关注的提议。"TikTok发言人在接受 外媒采访时说道。 据悉，这一垄断风险的指控源于KPPU对两大平台交易的全面评估。2023年底，TikTok收购了Tokopedia 75.01%的股份，交易于2024年1月完成。作为战略合作伙伴关系的一部分，Tokopedia和TikTok Shop印度 尼西亚的业务将整合至PT Tokopedia旗下，TikTok成为PT Tokopedia的控股股东。 然而，在TikTok Shop与T ...