Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply constraints and downstream price increases are driving tungsten prices to new highs [4] - The rare earth market is experiencing tight supply, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs due to downstream restocking [6] - Molybdenum prices are rising due to post-holiday restocking demand, while tungsten prices are increasing due to supply reductions and downstream price adjustments [6] - Tin prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly from key producing regions [6] - Antimony prices are showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved export data to support further price increases [6] Summary by Category Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 4.71% to 890,000 CNY/ton, dysprosium by 9.83% to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and terbium by 1.56% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [11][6] - Supply remains tight due to policy and supply-side constraints, with downstream magnetic material companies shifting from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 6.48% to 4,435 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 5.42% to 282,000 CNY/ton [18][6] - The market is experiencing a decrease in liquidity due to reduced mine output and low inventory levels at smelters [6] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 13.13% to 784,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.66% to 1,165,000 CNY/ton [25][6] - Supply constraints from stricter mining regulations and reduced operational rates are pushing prices higher [6] Tin - SHFE tin prices surged by 24.04% to 453,240 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 18.89% to 57,425 USD/ton [31][6] - Supply chain concerns from geopolitical tensions in key producing regions are contributing to price volatility [6] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.82% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 2.08% to 147,500 CNY/ton [46][6] - The market is awaiting signals of export recovery to support further price increases [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The supply tightness in the rare earth sector is increasing, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs, up 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton [4] - Molybdenum prices have rebounded due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton [21] - Tungsten prices continue to hit historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton [27] - Tin prices have seen significant adjustments, with SHFE tin down 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton [30] - Antimony prices are experiencing a rebound, with antimony ingot prices up 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton [39] Summary by Category Rare Earth - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices decreased by 1.41% to 140,000 CNY/ton and 2.37% to 617,500 CNY/ton respectively [9][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased 3.48% to 267,500 CNY/ton [21][4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose 24.68% to 985,000 CNY/ton [27][4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices decreased 15.42% to 45,845 USD/ton [30][4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices rose 1.40% to 144,500 CNY/ton [39][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices have reached a historical high due to supply contraction and price increases for long-term contracts in December [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for rare earths are relatively balanced, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide experiencing a slight rebound [5] - Molybdenum prices are fluctuating due to weak demand from the steel sector, while tungsten prices are driven by stable domestic demand and increased long-term contract prices [5] - Tin prices are strengthening due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, particularly in key mining regions [5] - Antimony prices are expected to reverse from their recent decline as export recovery expectations strengthen [5] Summary by Category Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.21% to 579,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices decreased by 7.43% to 1,370,000 CNY/ton and 3.75% to 6,280,000 CNY/ton respectively [10][5] - Supply issues are easing as some producers control output due to cost pressures, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies remains stable [5] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 2.77% to 3,715 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 1.27% to 238,500 CNY/ton [19][5] - The industry is facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with signs of supply contraction emerging [5] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 9.76% to 371,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 12.12% to 555,000 CNY/ton [26][5] - Supply is tightening as mining production slows, while domestic demand remains stable [5] Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 9.17% to 333,000 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 7.11% to 41,905 USD/ton [30][5] - Supply disruptions in key regions are contributing to price increases [5] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices decreased by 3.24% to 149,500 CNY/ton [36][5] - Expectations for export recovery are strengthening, which may lead to a price rebound [5]

Group 1: Rare Earths - The supply and demand for rare earths are both weak, with neodymium oxide prices rebounding by 3.94% to 566,500 CNY/ton [1] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.99% to 1,480,000 CNY/ton, while terbium oxide prices fell by 0.84% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [1] - Some production companies are controlling output due to cost pressures, and the recent raw material supply tightness has eased [1] - Downstream magnetic material companies have not seen a significant increase in order volumes, maintaining low demand levels, with price fluctuations expected [1] - Recommended companies to watch include Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jieli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [1] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices down by 2.69% to 3,615 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices down by 1.26% to 235,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply signals for molybdenum concentrate are showing signs of contraction, while weak terminal demand is dragging down industry profitability [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with short-term price adjustments expected [2] - Recommended company to watch is Jintong Molybdenum [2] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases for long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices up by 6.96% to 338,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices up by 4.10% to 495,000 CNY/ton [2] - The reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas and slowed production rates are tightening industry circulation [2] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases, with PCB tool demand showing positive trends [2] - Companies to watch include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are strengthening due to ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin prices up by 4.66% to 305,000 CNY/ton and LME tin prices up by 5.97% to 39,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply-side issues include deteriorating safety conditions in major tin mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia [3] - Traditional consumer electronics demand is weak, while emerging fields like AI are performing well, leading to strong price expectations [3] - Recommended companies to watch are Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [3] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are showing signs of bottom reversal, with antimony ingot prices up by 9.52% to 172,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices up by 10.75% to 154,500 CNY/ton [3] - Antimony ingot production has rebounded, but overall operating rates remain low due to raw material shortages [3] - Expectations for export recovery are boosting terminal purchasing confidence, with tight inventories for antimony ore and ingots [3] - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that tungsten prices have reached a historical high due to supply contraction, while antimony prices may be reversing from the bottom due to improved export expectations [3] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies in the sector, including Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials for rare earths; Jinchuan Group for molybdenum; Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten for tungsten; Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold for antimony [6] Summary by Category Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 3.94% increase in praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 566,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices have decreased by 1.99% to 1,480,000 CNY/ton and 0.84% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton respectively [11][10] - Supply issues are easing, but demand remains low, with downstream magnetic material companies not seeing significant order increases [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a decline, with molybdenum concentrate down 2.69% to 3,615 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) down 1.26% to 235,500 CNY/ton [19][20] - The report indicates a tightening supply signal for molybdenum concentrate, while demand remains weak [6] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have surged, with black tungsten concentrate rising 6.96% to 338,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate up 4.10% to 495,000 CNY/ton [26][27] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and production slowdowns, while domestic demand remains stable [6] Tin - Tin prices have strengthened, with SHFE tin up 4.66% to 305,040 CNY/ton and LME tin up 5.97% to 39,125 USD/ton [30][31] - Supply disruptions and low inventory levels are contributing to the price increase [6] Antimony - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot up 9.52% to 172,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate up 10.75% to 154,500 CNY/ton [40][41] - Improved export expectations are boosting market confidence, with tight inventories supporting potential price increases [6]