证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 印尼供给扰动推动锡价走强，稀土行业出台出口管制公告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/9/29-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：宏观情绪增强，氧化镨钕高位震荡。近两周，氧化镨钕下跌 0.89%至 55.75 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.62%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.35%至 702.5 万元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - In July, the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets improved month-on-month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide entering an upward channel, increasing by 7.17% to 597,500 CNY/ton [2][3] - The Pentagon agreed to invest 400 million USD to purchase preferred shares of MPMaterials, becoming its largest shareholder, and set a procurement price of 110 USD per kilogram for the two most commonly used rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium [2] - MPMaterials announced a 500 million USD partnership with Apple to supply key raw materials for its electronic products [2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 3.21% to 45,050 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.51% to 289,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply signals indicate a gradual contraction in molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel mills continues to stimulate inventory replenishment [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged by 25.00% to 250,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 23.33% to 370,000 CNY/ton [3] - The reduction in tungsten mining quotas and stable domestic demand are supporting price increases [3] Group 4: Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 4.43% to 278,700 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 5.29% to 35,500 USD/ton [4] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates of refining tin smelters in Yunnan, while demand remains subdued as high tin prices lead to low restocking intentions in the electronics and home appliance sectors [4] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remained stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate prices held steady at 160,000 CNY/metal ton [4] - Domestic antimony raw materials are tight due to a halt in overseas mining, and the low operating rate of antimony smelters is expected to keep production low [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant progress in upstream materials benefiting from ongoing technological breakthroughs [4] - The successful completion of the high-temperature lithium-lead comprehensive experimental platform and the approval of a conditional use permit for the first nuclear fusion power plant mark key advancements in the industry [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of rare metal ETFs showed a turnover of 5.01% with a transaction volume of 44.04 million yuan [3] - As of July 11, the average daily transaction volume of rare metal ETFs over the past week was 44.67 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The net value of rare metal ETFs increased by 28.79% over the past year [3] Group 2: Price Trends - In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate rose by 0.58% to 172,000 yuan per ton, while ammonium paratungstate increased by 0.40% to 253,000 yuan per ton [3] - SHFE tin prices increased by 2.57% to 267,300 yuan per ton, and LME tin prices rose by 4.24% to 33,800 USD per ton [3] - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan remains low due to a shortage of raw materials from Myanmar, leading to a tight supply of spot goods [3] Group 3: Strategic Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the price center of strategic minor metals has significantly increased due to resource scarcity and rigid supply, benefiting from developments in new energy, new materials, manufacturing upgrades, and military industries [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metal investment opportunities as key mineral resources become a new battleground for countries [4] Group 4: Key Stocks - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 54.07% of the index, including Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, and others [4] - The weight and performance of key stocks are as follows: Salt Lake Co. (2.29%, 9.04%), Northern Rare Earth (2.29%, 8.25%), and Ganfeng Lithium (3.80%, 5.47%) [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors can participate in the rare metals sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has driven a collective surge in the small metals industry, with multiple rare earth-related ETFs rising over 6% and maintaining a leading position for two consecutive days [1] - The rare metals ETF (562800) saw a half-day increase of 5.05%, with a trading volume of 591.26 million yuan, and its total scale is 1.55 billion shares [3] - The rare metals industry ETFs have experienced a decrease in shares this year, with the rare metals ETF (562800) losing 27.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date change rate of -15.23% [2] Group 2 - Recent price increases in tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate indicate a tightening supply, with tungsten concentrate rising by 0.58% to 172,000 yuan/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 0.40% to 253,000 yuan/ton [3] - The SHFE tin price rose by 2.57% to 267,300 yuan/ton, while LME tin increased by 4.24% to 33,800 USD/ton, indicating a tight supply situation due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises [3] - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, launched on May 12, 2015, reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the rare metals industry, providing diverse investment targets [3] Group 3 - The major weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth (9.06%), Salt Lake Industry (8.58%), and others, indicating the key players in the rare metals sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]