证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩推动钨价创历史新高，出口修复预期锑价或底部反转 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2025/11/17-2025/11/28） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、下游需求不及预期风险、进出口政策变动风险等。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：供需双弱，氧化镨钕震荡反弹。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 3.94%至 56.65 万元/ 吨，氧化镝下跌 1.99% ...

广州金控期货 商品日报 2025.11.20 1 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交量） （来源：广金期货） 来源：广金期货 | 数据来源：Wind，广金期货 | | --- | 2 热力图（当日收盘价涨跌幅—成交额） | 曼金属 | | | 发展时光 | | | | | 19 | | | 深圳市 | | CD | D | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 48 | | 타 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | BUNGH | | MASSE | 1494 CABDY | | | @19 | | | | | | | | 75 | | 11240 | | 2014 | 1114 | 第1章 Add 214-201 | | 083601 | No | | | | | TL | | 152512 | | 41.27% | | 0.13% | -2.07% | THERS' | | 8050 | SC2604 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Tungsten Market - Black tungsten concentrate price increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate price rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [1][3] - Supply side shows a reduction in tungsten concentrate mining indicators, with mines generally slowing production pace, leading to tighter industry circulation [1][3] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential procurement, with recent APT procurement prices for early November rising by 52,000 CNY/ton, boosting market bullish sentiment [1][3] Group 2: Rare Earth Market - Rare earth supply and demand are both weak, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare earth items and technologies, targeting violations of existing measures [2] - Supply side sees some production companies controlling output due to cost pressures, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies remains low [2] Group 3: Molybdenum Market - Molybdenum concentrate price decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron price fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side indicates signs of shrinking molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel procurement is increasing but facing price pressure from steel mills [2] Group 4: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,500 CNY/ton and LME tin up by 0.35% to 36,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply side affected by low operating rates of refining tin smelting enterprises due to raw material shortages from Myanmar [3] - High tin prices are leading to low replenishment willingness in the electronics and home appliance sectors, with downstream manufacturers primarily engaging in essential procurement [3] Group 5: Antimony Market - Antimony ingot price decreased by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate price fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4] - Supply side sees tight domestic antimony raw materials due to a halt in overseas mines entering the domestic market, coupled with weak smelting profitability [4] - Demand remains focused on essential procurement, with strong demand in the photovoltaic sector, while short-term export demand is under pressure [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [5] - Domestic advancements include breakthroughs in the localization of second-generation high-temperature superconducting strips [5] - Internationally, significant investments and reports on fusion research are emerging, indicating a growing interest in the sector [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a mixed supply and demand situation in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide rose by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton. However, terbium oxide saw a decline of 1.71% to 6,625,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices dropping by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreasing by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply constraints and price increases in long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices increasing by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Tin prices are fluctuating with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin increased by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Antimony prices are under pressure, with antimony ingot prices falling by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices down by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - The report notes that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is accelerating commercialization, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [4][5] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Supply and demand are weak, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Guangsheng Youse and China Rare Earth [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron prices fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Suggested company to watch: Jinduicheng Molybdenum [4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Recommended companies include Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices rose by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Companies to focus on: Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Silver Tin [4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices dropped by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and concentrate prices fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - Companies to monitor include Huaxi Silver and Hunan Gold [4] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant benefits expected for upstream materials [4][5]

Group 1: Rare Earths - The prices of rare earth materials show mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreasing by 0.89% to 557,500 CNY/ton, dysprosium oxide increasing by 0.62% to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide decreasing by 0.35% to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [2][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, aiming to strengthen regulations and combat illegal export practices [2][3] - Supply-side constraints are evident due to low-priced ore tightening, while demand is characterized by a wait-and-see attitude, leading companies to focus on inventory consumption [2][3] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices decreasing by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron prices decreasing by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [3] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are significant losses for iron mills, leading to price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices are experiencing high volatility, with black tungsten concentrate prices decreasing by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices decreasing by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply constraints are evident due to reduced mining quotas, while domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases [3] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices have increased due to a weak supply-demand balance, with SHFE tin rising by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton and LME tin rising by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [3][4] - The Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining has led to supply tightening, contributing to price increases [5] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are in a downward adjustment phase, with antimony ingot prices decreasing by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices decreasing by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [5] - Supply is tight due to a halt in overseas mining, while demand remains primarily driven by essential purchases, with expectations for export demand recovery in October [5] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant advancements in both domestic and international projects [6] - The industry is experiencing a high degree of prosperity, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly from ongoing technological breakthroughs and commercial projects [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions in Indonesia have driven tin prices higher, while the rare earth industry has introduced export control announcements [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation timeline for total rare earth control, quotas, and overseas rare earth industry catalysts [3] - The report suggests that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is in a high prosperity phase, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 0.89% decrease in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 557,500 CNY/ton, a 0.62% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.35% decrease in terbium oxide to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [12][11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, targeting illegal export behaviors [3][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices have decreased by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [23][11] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are signs of supply contraction [3] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have decreased by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices have decreased by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [28][11] - The report notes stable domestic demand with a focus on essential purchases [3] Tin - SHFE tin prices have increased by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices have increased by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [33][11] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises, while demand remains cautious [3] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices have decreased by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [42][11] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in export demand starting in October [3] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing continuous technological breakthroughs and commercial project implementations, indicating a high growth phase for upstream materials [6]

Group 1: Rare Earths - In July, the export volume of rare earth permanent magnets improved month-on-month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide entering an upward channel, increasing by 7.17% to 597,500 CNY/ton [2][3] - The Pentagon agreed to invest 400 million USD to purchase preferred shares of MPMaterials, becoming its largest shareholder, and set a procurement price of 110 USD per kilogram for the two most commonly used rare earths, neodymium and praseodymium [2] - MPMaterials announced a 500 million USD partnership with Apple to supply key raw materials for its electronic products [2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 3.21% to 45,050 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.51% to 289,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply signals indicate a gradual contraction in molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel mills continues to stimulate inventory replenishment [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged by 25.00% to 250,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 23.33% to 370,000 CNY/ton [3] - The reduction in tungsten mining quotas and stable domestic demand are supporting price increases [3] Group 4: Tin - SHFE tin prices rose by 4.43% to 278,700 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 5.29% to 35,500 USD/ton [4] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates of refining tin smelters in Yunnan, while demand remains subdued as high tin prices lead to low restocking intentions in the electronics and home appliance sectors [4] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony ingot prices remained stable at 182,500 CNY/ton, while antimony concentrate prices held steady at 160,000 CNY/metal ton [4] - Domestic antimony raw materials are tight due to a halt in overseas mining, and the low operating rate of antimony smelters is expected to keep production low [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant progress in upstream materials benefiting from ongoing technological breakthroughs [4] - The successful completion of the high-temperature lithium-lead comprehensive experimental platform and the approval of a conditional use permit for the first nuclear fusion power plant mark key advancements in the industry [4]

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of rare metal ETFs showed a turnover of 5.01% with a transaction volume of 44.04 million yuan [3] - As of July 11, the average daily transaction volume of rare metal ETFs over the past week was 44.67 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The net value of rare metal ETFs increased by 28.79% over the past year [3] Group 2: Price Trends - In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate rose by 0.58% to 172,000 yuan per ton, while ammonium paratungstate increased by 0.40% to 253,000 yuan per ton [3] - SHFE tin prices increased by 2.57% to 267,300 yuan per ton, and LME tin prices rose by 4.24% to 33,800 USD per ton [3] - The operating rate of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan remains low due to a shortage of raw materials from Myanmar, leading to a tight supply of spot goods [3] Group 3: Strategic Insights - According to CITIC Securities, the price center of strategic minor metals has significantly increased due to resource scarcity and rigid supply, benefiting from developments in new energy, new materials, manufacturing upgrades, and military industries [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic metal investment opportunities as key mineral resources become a new battleground for countries [4] Group 4: Key Stocks - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 54.07% of the index, including Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, and others [4] - The weight and performance of key stocks are as follows: Salt Lake Co. (2.29%, 9.04%), Northern Rare Earth (2.29%, 8.25%), and Ganfeng Lithium (3.80%, 5.47%) [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investors can participate in the rare metals sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has driven a collective surge in the small metals industry, with multiple rare earth-related ETFs rising over 6% and maintaining a leading position for two consecutive days [1] - The rare metals ETF (562800) saw a half-day increase of 5.05%, with a trading volume of 591.26 million yuan, and its total scale is 1.55 billion shares [3] - The rare metals industry ETFs have experienced a decrease in shares this year, with the rare metals ETF (562800) losing 27.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date change rate of -15.23% [2] Group 2 - Recent price increases in tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate indicate a tightening supply, with tungsten concentrate rising by 0.58% to 172,000 yuan/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 0.40% to 253,000 yuan/ton [3] - The SHFE tin price rose by 2.57% to 267,300 yuan/ton, while LME tin increased by 4.24% to 33,800 USD/ton, indicating a tight supply situation due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises [3] - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, launched on May 12, 2015, reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the rare metals industry, providing diverse investment targets [3] Group 3 - The major weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth (9.06%), Salt Lake Industry (8.58%), and others, indicating the key players in the rare metals sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]