大家好，今天我们来聊聊金融圈的大事。本周五，全球市场的焦点将聚集在美国怀俄明州大提顿山脚下 的杰克逊霍尔。 对，就是那个一年一度的央行年会，美联储主席鲍威尔会在那里发表讲话。市场现在最关心的问题就 是：他会不会在这次会议上为9月的降息打开大门。 目前，货币市场交易员押注9月降息25个基点的概率已经达到80%。这意味着大部分人觉得降息几乎板上 钉钉。大家之所以这么盯着杰克逊霍尔，是因为这里一直是美联储释放政策信号的重要场合。去年鲍威 尔的讲话，就直接引导市场去期待9月的降息。 今年会议的主题是"转型中的劳动力市场：人口、生产率与宏观政策"。听起来很学术，但背后的意思很明 确：通胀已经有所回落，美联储的关注点开始转向就业。 而且美国劳动力市场最近出现疲软迹象，如果政策上有调整，接下来几个月的市场走向可能会直接受到 影响。 这次会议还可能涉及美联储政策框架审查的部分结果。很多投行预计，鲍威尔可能会对2020年提出的"弹 性平均通胀目标"（FAIT）做出调整，重新平衡美联储在就业和通胀之间的目标。 鲍威尔将在美国东部时间周五上午10点，也就是北京时间晚上10点，发表题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演 讲。市场最关心的，是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on Powell's perspective regarding the July non-farm employment data and whether it opens the door for a rate cut in September, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut anticipated by traders [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Signals - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is highly anticipated, as it may signal the potential for a September rate cut [2][5]. - The theme of this year's conference is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," indicating a shift in focus back to employment after inflation has receded [4]. - The conference is expected to address the results of the Federal Reserve's framework review, with expectations that Powell may partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020 [4][9]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell has previously warned that the potential for job growth in the U.S. labor market is declining due to factors like slowed immigration and an aging population, with July's non-farm data showing significant downward revisions [7]. - The July non-farm employment report indicated a substantial miss against expectations, with a net revision of -258,000 jobs over the previous two months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that Powell may modify his previous statements to emphasize the risks to the dual mandate of employment and inflation, potentially signaling support for a rate cut [7][12]. - There is a significant divergence among Wall Street firms regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs forecasting three 25 basis point cuts this year, while Barclays suggests the next cut may not occur until December [11][12]. - Historical data shows that bond markets typically react significantly to the Jackson Hole conference, with notable fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields [13].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is highly anticipated, with market participants closely watching for indications of a potential rate cut in September, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut expected [1]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Conference Insights - The Jackson Hole conference has historically served as a significant platform for the Federal Reserve to signal policy changes, with Powell's previous speeches guiding market expectations for rate cuts [3]. - The theme for this year's conference is "Transforming Labor Market: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy," indicating a shift in focus back to employment as inflation subsides [4]. - The conference may also address the results of the Federal Reserve's framework review, with expectations that Powell might partially reverse the Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) policy introduced in 2020, aiming to rebalance the Fed's dual mandate of employment and inflation [4][8]. Group 2: Labor Market Focus - Powell's upcoming speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review" will likely address the recent signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, particularly in light of the July employment report [5][6]. - The July non-farm payroll data showed significant downward revisions, with a net adjustment of -258,000 jobs over the previous two months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [6]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that Powell may modify his previous statements to emphasize the risks associated with the labor market's downturn, potentially signaling support for a rate cut if necessary [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Divergence - There is a notable divergence among Wall Street firms regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs predicting three 25 basis point cuts this year, while Barclays suggests that the next cut may not occur until December [10][11]. - Morgan Stanley adopts a cautious stance, indicating that the Fed's decision in September will depend on upcoming employment and CPI data, suggesting that the Jackson Hole meeting may not have a substantial impact [11]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Trading Strategies - Historically, the bond market has reacted significantly to the Jackson Hole conference, with notable fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields during the event [12]. - Market participants are currently reducing short positions in the dollar and purchasing "cheap" call options to hedge against potential risks from the conference [15][16].