文：曹多鱼 就有朋友还在问我，最近铺天盖地出了刺激消费政策， 的审批越来越简单了，但他不理解，为什么现在刺激消费不直接发钱呢？ 消费贷 怎么说呢？ 因为大家要记住一件事： 我们刺激消费的初衷，不是真的希望老百姓去买买买，而是希望老百姓花出去的钱，能够刺激经济，带动经济增长，而最好的情况则是老百姓花出去的钱， 要能被财政回收。 于是这里就有了一个税的问题： 简单解释一下，我国目前第一大税种是增值税，而增值税是针对生产端的货物销售增值额的征税， 间接税从税收分类来看，增值税就是标准的，而间接税 的特点，就是和消费没什么关系，所以它只能从生产和流通环节征收。 而正是这种从生产和流通环节征税的税务逻辑，就会使得地方政府在做决策的时候，更倾向于投资生产，而非推动消费。 而在这个框架下，消费贷和消费补贴是顺税收逻辑，而增加收入这个问题，跟现有的税收逻辑是对立的。 于是政策设计层刺激消费的时候，是有计划的。 没错，你没听错，咱这的消费被计划的。 老百姓最想要的消费，是随心所欲的，突出一个我想买啥就买啥，我缺什么我买什么，但你实际去看这种消费，都不怎么被鼓励的。 举个例子，如果你要消费奢侈品，我们完全不鼓励，因为奢侈品大多不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of social financing and credit growth in August, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity and improve credit demand, particularly in the household sector [1][6][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In August, social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, aligning closely with market expectations of 2.53 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Credit Performance - The increase in real credit was 623.3 billion yuan, showing significant improvement from July but still below historical averages for the same period [7][9]. - The year-on-year decrease in real credit was 417.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in credit demand [7][9]. Corporate Credit - Corporate short-term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, the highest for the same period since 2017, driven by factors such as inventory replenishment and banks' preference for short-term loans under stable interest margins [9][10]. - Corporate medium and long-term loans rose by 470 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 20 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in financing demand for major projects [9][10]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing increased by 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [3][10]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 134.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36 billion yuan, reflecting increased costs and difficulties in issuing bonds [3][10]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans decreased by 9 billion yuan, but showed a year-on-year increase of 52.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of improvement since April [3][12]. - The increase in non-discounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing patterns [3][12]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was 6%, up by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by a low base effect and increased corporate foreign exchange settlements [4][12]. - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, supported by increased fiscal spending, while household deposits showed a significant decrease [4][12]. Overall Economic Outlook - The financial data for August indicates signs of fiscal strength and a recovery in corporate financing demand, but low leverage willingness in the household sector remains a concern [15][6]. - Upcoming policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies and adjustments in real estate regulations, may influence household leverage willingness, with September and October data being critical for observation [15][6].